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cover of episode Wall Street Weekend: Israel, Iran, and oil

Wall Street Weekend: Israel, Iran, and oil

2025/6/14
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Wall Street Breakfast
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James Kostohryz
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James Kostohryz: 我认为伊朗对以色列构成生存威胁，他们已正式宣布要摧毁以色列。因此，阻止伊朗获得核武器对以色列至关重要。伊朗通过资助恐怖组织攻击以色列，这才是最大的威胁。如果伊朗拥有核武器，以色列将无法反击，最终将被耗尽。特朗普政府对伊朗采取强硬立场，不允许其拥有或浓缩铀。但伊朗已拒绝这一要求，局势可能升级。如果谈判失败，美国可能会允许以色列攻击伊朗的核设施。如果伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将导致全球经济衰退和油价飙升。我认为以色列与伊朗之间爆发战争的可能性超过50%，投资者应密切关注局势，降低投资组合风险。美国股市可能面临巨大下行风险，投资者应根据当前不对称的风险情景调整投资组合。

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The speaker discusses the existential threat that Iran poses to Israel, emphasizing Iran's state policy of destroying Israel and its support for terrorist proxies. The inability to retaliate against Iran's support of these proxies if Iran obtains nuclear weapons places Israel in a precarious situation.
  • Iran's declared policy of destroying Israel
  • Iran's funding of terrorist proxies near Israel
  • Existential threat to Israel if Iran obtains nuclear weapons

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*This is an excerpt from this week's Investing Experts episode: Fiscal Headwinds And Unrealistic S&P EPS Growth With James Kostohryz)*Show links: Will War Trigger A Bear Market And Spike In Oil?)Will Macroeconomic Shocks Lead To Business Cycle Recession)?)War Scenarios: A Guide For Investors)Episode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb)**Get 20% off James' Successful Portfolio Strategy)**Sign up for our daily newsletter here) and for full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores, dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions).