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cover of episode Cautious Open for APAC Markets; Election Day in South Korea

Cautious Open for APAC Markets; Election Day in South Korea

2025/6/3
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

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Adam Koons: 我认为关税政策对美国经济产生了负面影响。ISM数据显示,美国制造业持续萎缩,进口降至16年来的最低水平,且生产商面临更高的材料成本。这些都表明关税导致了经济紧缩,而非通货膨胀。长期来看,关税政策的不确定性和反复可能会给美国经济带来灾难性的后果。如果特朗普政府继续推行关税政策,且美联储因通胀而无法降息,美国经济可能会面临硬着陆的风险。目前,我建议对30年期国债保持谨慎,因为今年到期的债务会对债券市场造成压力。从长远来看,长期债券是市场上最好的投资之一,但短期内我会保持谨慎。我认为未来几个月市场波动性将保持高位,因此我们降低了股票配置,并转向低波动性策略和高股息股票。同时,我们也在降低海外投资,因为国际市场和美国市场之间的估值差距过大。 Adam Koons: 此外,滞胀是美联储最害怕的情况,因为它会让美联储陷入困境。在滞胀环境下,失业率上升,经济下滑,但通货膨胀也在上升,这意味着美联储无法使用过去刺激经济的工具,因为这只会使通货膨胀问题恶化。这是一个很大的担忧,因为它可能导致更大的问题。我认为滞胀和经济衰退不是基本情况,但这取决于关税政策持续的时间。如果这种情况持续下去,我们可能会陷入滞胀。

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Asian shares were off to a tepid start at the open Tuesday after a rebound in big tech drove US stocks higher. Bonds fell as the dollar hit its lowest since 2023. Wall Street kept a close eye on the latest twists in the trade war, with the US extending the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until Aug. 31, according to a notice issued by the US Customs and Border Protection. Trump and Xi Jinping will "likely" speak this week, according to the White House. We talk markets with Adam Coons, Chief Investment Officer at Winthrop Capital Management.

Plus - South Koreans head to the polls Tuesday to elect a new president to lead the nation after an attempt to impose martial law at the end of last year triggered its worst constitutional crisis in decades. Opposition Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung was the frontrunner ahead of conservative ruling People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo in final polls conducted last week. A third contender, Lee Jun-seok, a former PPP leader now running for the Reform Party, was splitting the conservative vote. The winner will face the challenges of trying to unite a deeply fractured country and restore growth to a shrinking economy that is among the most vulnerable in the world to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. For more, we hear from M. Jae Moon, Professor of Public Policy and Management at Yonsei University. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn in Seoul.

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