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cover of episode Cautious Start to Trading Ahead of Week's Eco Data, Earnings

Cautious Start to Trading Ahead of Week's Eco Data, Earnings

2025/4/28
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

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Lawrence Werther
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Peter McGuire
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Peter McGuire: 本月美元汇率波动剧烈,跌幅巨大,速度之快令人震惊。股市经历了大幅下跌后,最近有所反弹,但波动性依然很大。日元、欧元等货币的交易机会较多,而人民币的交易机会相对较少。日本央行可能下调经济增长预期,并采取进一步行动。全球经济增长放缓,关税的不确定性将导致市场持续波动。美元指数、欧元/美元和日元/美元是值得关注的交易品种。 Lawrence Werther: 美联储5月份不太可能降息,6月份降息的可能性较大。非农就业数据和核心个人消费支出数据将影响美联储的利率决定。目前劳动力市场状况尚好,短期内不太可能出现大幅恶化,尽管消费者信心低迷,但企业目前不太可能大规模裁员。美联储关注多种通胀预期指标,并更关注长期通胀预期。美国经济今年将继续增长,但第一季度增长将低于1%。关税对通胀的影响可能小于预期。今年美联储可能降息两次,2026年初可能再次降息。虽然存在滞胀风险,但经济有望在贸易问题明朗后反弹。美联储将保持独立性,不会屈服于白宫的压力。尽管特朗普的关税政策存在争议,但美国国内生产可能会出现一些回流。

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Asian shares gained in a cautious start to the week as investors await progress in US trade negotiations with the region and signs of further stimulus from China. The dollar was steady against major peers and US equity-index futures edged lower in early trading Monday. Contracts in Japan signal a gain when cash markets reopen after the yen weakened on Friday, while those in Australia and Hong Kong were little changed. We talk FX and currencies with Peter McGuire, CEO at Trading.com Australia. 

Plus - US stocks notched their longest advance in three months on Friday, while bonds and the dollar climbed amid increasing expectations the Federal Reserve could ease policy again in the first half of this year as the US economy softens. Worries about the economic fallout from tariffs drove US consumer sentiment to one of its lowest readings on record while long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991. Investors will focus on key economic data this week - including the US jobs report and gross domestic product data - to see if the the recent steadiness in markets will continue as tariff tensions tamp down. We preview the week's eco data with Lawrence Werther, Chief US Economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

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