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Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, France Conference, China-Iran Relations
2025/6/27
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
A
Aditi Rashkina
A
Alan Katz
J
Javier Blas
J
Jean d'Albart
J
Jenny Marsh
N
Nicolas Erronemus
S
Stephen Carroll
S
Stuart Paul
Stuart Paul: 五月份的个人收入和支出报告显示出滞胀的迹象，个人支出下降，收入增长低于预期，核心通胀略有上升。关税转嫁导致消费者减少在非必需品上的支出，因为他们面临更高的价格。我看到消费者因中国关税的影响而感到物价上涨的压力，导致五月份消费支出下降。今年早些时候，由于预期关税，汽车消费提前透支，现在消费正在回落。由于贸易战导致人们取消了出国旅行计划，机票和酒店价格疲软。消费支出前景不佳，很大程度上取决于劳动力市场。劳动力收入略有增长，但预计劳动力市场将降温，消费者将进一步减少支出。预计六月份新增就业岗位为12万，但风险偏向下行，可能低于10万。预计六月份新增就业岗位为12万，不足以跟上劳动力增长，失业率可能升至4.3%。
Deep Dive
The May personal income and outlays report showed a stagflationary trend with declining personal spending and income, and slightly higher core inflation. This is attributed to tariff pass-through, particularly impacting non-durable goods and causing consumers to cut back on discretionary spending. The June jobs report is anticipated to show a slowdown in hiring, potentially below 100,000 jobs added, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate.
- May personal income and outlays report reveals stagflationary trends
- Consumer spending declined due to higher prices and tariffs
- June jobs report expected to show a slowdown in hiring, unemployment rate to rise
Shownotes Transcript