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Finding Opportunities in Emerging Markets
2025/1/15
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
R
Rahul Chadha
R
Rob Haworth
我比市场对亚洲地区更为乐观，因为我认为最坏的关税情景不会发生。美国的高通胀最终会使其承担关税成本，而其他地区则会看到通缩效应。亚洲市场已经度过了最艰难的时期。
我们应该适应中国经济较低增长率的新常态，并投资于那些能够在这一环境下蓬勃发展的中国公司，例如那些在化妆品领域从跨国公司手中抢占市场份额的中国公司，以及那些正在拓展全球业务的中国公司。
中国政府对企业的态度变得更加积极，这将有助于提振商业投资和消费者信心，但这需要时间。消费者信心是中国经济复苏的关键。中国政府正在采取措施来改善商业环境和提振经济，但刺激措施的力度低于2008年。
中国政府的一系列积极举措，例如允许TikTok美国业务出售以及放宽签证政策，预示着经济向好。东盟市场，特别是越南，尽管受到关税影响，但估值极具吸引力。
印度市场长期向好，当前的经济周期性下滑为投资提供了良机。市场对关税和利率的担忧被过度夸大，亚洲新兴市场的前景比市场预期要好。
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, focusing on China's economic challenges and opportunities in other markets like Indonesia and Vietnam. The discussion includes the impact of US tariffs, the Chinese government's supportive measures, and the potential for growth in specific sectors.
- More optimistic outlook for Asian markets than what markets are currently predicting.
- Belief that worst-case scenario for tariffs won't play out due to inflation impacting the US.
- China's growth expected to be around 3%, focusing on companies expanding globally.
- Positive government actions towards businesses in China.
- Other attractive markets in Asia-Pacific include Indonesia and Vietnam, with valuations considered attractive in Vietnam.
Shownotes Transcript