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cover of episode Markets Fall as Global Tariff Turmoil Enters Second Week

Markets Fall as Global Tariff Turmoil Enters Second Week

2025/4/7
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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A
Adam Koons
H
Helen Zhu
Topics
Helen Zhu: 中国政府上周五宣布的对所有美国进口商品征收34%的报复性关税，其规模超出了预期。这导致市场出现恐慌性抛售，因为人们担心贸易战可能持续更长时间。美国市场对散户投资者的依赖性很高，他们的投资策略过于集中，缺乏多元化，这加剧了市场波动。虽然市场下跌幅度很大，显示出金融不稳定性，但这并非系统性风险。更值得关注的是债券市场，特别是信用利差的扩大。美联储降息并不能解决贸易问题，反而可能延缓谈判，因此美联储不应独自承担稳定市场的责任。关税对通货膨胀的影响是短暂的，主要影响商品而非服务。关税将持续一段时间，但不同国家将有不同的谈判结果。中国经济此前有所好转，但新的关税措施使其面临新的挑战。市场恐慌情绪蔓延，促使投资者抛售资产。市场大幅下跌后，是逢低买入的好时机，特别是那些受益于贸易转移的行业。地缘政治紧张局势对中国科技行业构成负面影响。 Adam Koons: 市场低估了特朗普政府对关税的强硬态度，未来市场可能进一步下跌。美联储关注信用利差，而非股市。市场已经计入了衰退的可能性，消费者信心下降可能加剧衰退。目前是逢低买入优质股票的好时机，特别是那些具有良好商业模式的大型科技公司和医疗保健公司。降息无法解决关税导致的高物价问题，反而可能加剧经济问题。应避免投资对中国市场依赖度高的公司。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The Chinese government's unexpected imposition of 34% tariffs on US imports is analyzed. The discussion covers the market's reaction, the role of leverage, and the potential impact on inflation. Experts weigh in on the possibility of a longer-term tariff presence and its implications for various sectors.
  • China imposed 34% tariffs on US imports.
  • The magnitude of the tariffs was a surprise.
  • The market reaction was significant, akin to COVID or GFC levels.
  • Tariffs will likely cause a one-off increase in inflation.

Shownotes Transcript

A flight from global equities accelerated Monday and investors piled into haven assets as the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs deepened after China slapped retaliatory measures. From Sydney to Tokyo, Asian stocks plunged at the open along with commodities such as oil and copper. Trading of Nikkei 225 and Topix futures was suspended earlier as a circuit breaker was triggered due to a glut of sell orders, according to a notice on Japan Exchange Group's website. Yields on two-year Treasuries, the most policy sensitive bonds, dropped as much as 22 basis points while the Japanese yen and Swiss franc surged. Chinese stocks are bracing for a grim day when trading resumes after an extended weekend, during which Beijing announced 34% tariffs on all imports from the US. A gauge of US-listed Chinese shares fell 8.9% on Friday. For perspective on the week ahead for markets, we speak with Helen Zhu, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director at NF Trinity.

The tariff moves underscore the heightened concerns across financial markets as Trump attempts to reshape the global trade in Washington’s favor, increasing the risk of a recession. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the central bank won’t rush to react to the tariffs, which are likely to have a significant effect on the US economy, including slower growth and higher inflation. We explore what the global selloff could mean for monetary policy with Adam Coons, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Winthrop Capital Management.

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