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cover of episode Oil Climbs as Israel-Iran Conflict Amps Up Market Risks

Oil Climbs as Israel-Iran Conflict Amps Up Market Risks

2025/6/15
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Pavel Molchanov
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Pavel Molchanov: 作为投资策略分析师，我认为当前最重要的是区分市场情绪和实际情况。短期内，石油价格可能会因地缘政治紧张局势引发的恐慌和不确定性而剧烈波动。然而，从长远来看，真正决定油价走向的关键因素是中东地区石油供应是否会受到实际中断的影响。这包括伊朗本身的石油生产，以及也门胡塞武装可能对海上运输造成的干扰。最坏的情况是，伊朗可能采取行动封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这将直接影响全球20%的石油供应。虽然目前这些都还只是理论上的可能性，但石油市场似乎已经开始将最坏的情况纳入考量。如果真的出现供应中断，油价可能会飙升至每桶130美元甚至150美元。当然，这种情况不太可能长期持续，因为过高的油价会对全球经济造成严重损害。各国政府，包括美国，都拥有战略石油储备，可以用来应对供应中断，从而避免出现严重的燃料短缺。因此，我认为我们不应该过度恐慌，除非我们看到实际的石油供应中断。 Patrick Kennedy: 作为AllSource Investment Management的创始合伙人，我认为当前的市场环境已经发生了根本性的变化。自2022年以来，我们进入了一个新的市场体制，其特点是地缘政治风险加剧、利率上升、对通货膨胀的持续担忧以及市场整体波动性增加。在这种背景下，消费者对关税和油价上涨的担忧情绪日益加剧，这直接影响了他们的消费决策。如果油价持续上涨，美国企业可能不愿意将这些增加的成本转嫁给消费者，因为关税政策已经给市场带来了很大的不确定性。此外，我认为美联储的政策重心可能正在从控制通货膨胀转向刺激经济增长。如果未来的经济数据表现疲软，美联储可能会更快地采取降息行动，以避免经济陷入衰退。在这种市场环境下，我们建议投资者采取更加谨慎的策略，例如保持对冲，并增加对另类投资和私募市场的配置，因为这些市场受关税和油价上涨的影响相对较小。

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Oil climbed early Monday with investors squarely focused on escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Iran continue to bombard each other with no sign of a pause. Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% in early Asian trading after Israel and Iran continued attacks on one another's territories over the weekend. Israel launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and military leadership last week. For more, we speak with Pavel Molchanov, Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James & Associates.

Plus - S&P 500 futures slipped, while Asian equity-index contracts pointed to declines in Hong Kong and Sydney, and a gain in Tokyo. The dollar saw modest gains against major peers in early trading. With Federal Reserve officials signaling an extended hold on interest rates, investors and economists will look to Chair Jerome Powell this week for clues on what might eventually prompt the central bank to make a move, and when. We take a look at the macro landscape with Patrick Kennedy, Founding Partner at AllSource Investment Management.

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