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cover of episode Stocks Advance as Trump Walks Back Intent to Fire Fed's Powell

Stocks Advance as Trump Walks Back Intent to Fire Fed's Powell

2025/4/23
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
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Ekaterina Bigos
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Tom Bruce
Topics
Ekaterina Bigos: 当前市场面临前所未有的不确定性，主要源于大规模关税以及对美联储独立性的担忧。关税谈判的积极结果将有利于市场，但目前仍处于未知状态。中美贸易谈判的复杂性对其他亚洲国家，特别是东盟国家构成挑战。虽然美国政策导致资本流向的不确定性增加，但美国市场的基本面没有改变，仍然是全球领先的经济体。美元贬值是美国政府政策的意外后果，但对美国出口商有利。关税使中国经济复杂化，但中国经济的结构性和宏观问题依然存在，需要转向更注重消费的模式。中国股市对关税的反应与美国不同，主要受政策预期和科技创新驱动，特别是人工智能领域的创新。美国科技公司在人工智能领域的投资可能存在过度支出，需要重新调整。中国在人工智能硬件方面仍面临挑战，与英伟达等公司相比仍有差距，但目前阶段的创新对中国经济仍有积极影响。 Tom Bruce: 特朗普政府关注市场情绪，并根据市场反应调整政策。中美贸易紧张局势可能持续一段时间，但最近政府的言论表明可能会有缓和。股市近期波动剧烈，其走势主要取决于关税问题。马斯克在多家公司担任要职分散了对特斯拉的关注，但其对特斯拉的重新关注对股东有利。市场存在极度不确定性，但长期来看，创新和自由市场最终会获胜。美国国债目前并非避险资产，其关系的恢复将导致收益率下降。如果贸易谈判失败，美国经济将陷入衰退。长期来看，美国仍然是最佳投资地，但中期来看，欧洲部分经济体和东南亚可能存在机会。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the high level of uncertainty in the market due to President Trump's policies and the impact of tariffs. Ekaterina Bigos discusses whether this level of uncertainty is unprecedented and the potential consequences for various regions, particularly ASEAN.
  • Unprecedented scale of tariffs implemented on April 2nd.
  • Uncertainty from corporate sphere and continued uncertainty.
  • Positive vibes around negotiations with Japan, Korea, and Vietnam, but no conclusive deal yet.
  • China's warning against trade deals hurting Beijing's interests.
  • Complexity of a deal satisfying both the US and China, and its impact on ASEAN.

Shownotes Transcript

Stocks jumped and the dollar rose after President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell while optimism grew that trade tensions may be easing. Trump's comments on the Fed chief late Tuesday in Washington walk back opinions expressed earlier in the week that sparked concerns about the US central bank's independence. Progress in various trade talks also helped improve market sentiment after investors had broadly retreated from US assets this month following the announcement of century-high levies. We break down the themes driving volatility with Ecaterina Bigos, CIO for Asia ex-Japan Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers.

Plus - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China cannot be sustained by both sides and that the world's two largest economies will have to find ways to de-escalate. That de-escalation will come in the very near future, Bessent said during an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn't open to the public or media. He characterized the current situation as essentially a trade embargo, according to people who attended the session. We talk tariffs and trade policy with Tom Bruce, Macro Investment Strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management.

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