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cover of episode Trump Plans to Unveil 25% Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

Trump Plans to Unveil 25% Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

2025/2/10
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Brian Fowler
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Shams Afzal
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Brian Fowler: 作为彭博新闻东京分社的高级编辑,我认为特朗普政府的关税政策对亚洲的钢铁和铝出口国,如日本、韩国、台湾和越南,以及加拿大、墨西哥和巴西等国都将产生不利影响。虽然目前尚不清楚关税的具体影响,但可能会有一些豁免或排除条款。特朗普的策略通常是从大范围的姿态开始,然后观察各国的反应以及他能从中获得什么,以减轻部分影响。此外,关税的时机也值得关注,特别是考虑到上周石破首相访问白宫时,新日铁的投资问题被提上议程。特朗普的观点是,新日铁应该大力投资美国钢铁,而不是完全收购该公司。石破首相表示支持新日铁对美国钢铁进行投资,并引用了特朗普对不允许外国实体控制美国钢铁资产的热情。总的来说,贸易仍然是全球关注和不确定性的一个重要因素。 Shams Afzal: 作为卡内基投资咨询公司的董事总经理,我认为由于关税带来的不确定性,市场对降息的预期已经从三个月前的两到三次降息调整为现在的一次到两次。如果墨西哥和加拿大恢复到25%的关税水平,那么最终可能只会降息一次。此外,2月初密歇根大学的消费者信心指数恶化,消费者对未来通胀上升表示担忧,他们可能将关税威胁与通货膨胀直接联系起来。如果国内生产商也像2018年那样匹配关税带来的价格上涨,那么商品通胀将保持在高位,这将对那些希望看到30年期抵押贷款利率降至5%的人构成风险。总的来说,我认为市场波动性将会增加,尤其是在股市方面。

Deep Dive

Chapters
President Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will significantly impact Asian steel exporters, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Australia. The tariffs' effects are uncertain, with potential exemptions, but share prices have already fallen for major steel companies in the affected regions. The discussion also touches upon Prime Minister Ishiba's visit to the White House and resulting negotiations regarding investments in US Steel.
  • 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum
  • Significant impact on Asian steel exporters (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia)
  • Share price drops for POSCO and Nippon Steel
  • Negotiations between Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump regarding investments in US Steel
  • Potential for exemptions or exclusions

Shownotes Transcript

On today's episode, we explore President Donald Trump's plan to announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum, applying to metal imports from all countries. We speak with Brian Fowler, Bloomberg News Senior Editor in Tokyo. Plus - a look at how recent eco data will play into fiscal policy with Shams Afzal, Managing Director at the Carnegie Investment Counsel.

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