We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode US-China Trade Truce Sends Stocks Higher; India Equity Outlook

US-China Trade Truce Sends Stocks Higher; India Equity Outlook

2025/5/13
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
B
Brian Krawez
D
Doug Krisner
P
Piyush Mittal
P
President Trump
Topics
Doug Krisner: 中美贸易战的停战推动了股市的上涨。美国和中国同意暂时降低彼此产品的关税,并计划在三个月内达成更广泛的贸易协议。 President Trump: 双方同意将4月2日之后实施的关税降低至10%,为期90天,以便谈判人员继续解决更大的结构性问题。但是,现有的关税以及对汽车、钢铁和铝等产品的关税不在降低范围内。 Brian Krawez: 贸易休战既有空头回补的因素,也有最坏情况得以避免的因素。关税仍然高于六个月前,且关税问题依然存在,这对市场不利。市场对不会与中国发生贸易禁运感到高兴,但更高的关税将导致通货膨胀,对市场不利。除非出现经济衰退,否则美联储可能不会降息,并且需要观察关税带来的波动和潜在的通胀。中国将贸易休战视为一场胜利,贸易逆差的对应面是外国净投资。如果美国真的要将贸易逆差降至零,资本将会流出美国,导致债券市场利率上升和美元贬值。市场告诉政府,不能将贸易逆差降至零,贸易战对美国不利,美元会持续下跌,利率会上升。风险较低的证券仍然是更好的选择,例如喜力(Heineken)和好时(Hershey)等消费必需品公司。一些科技股看起来不错,例如微软,它具有良好的增长和抗关税及经济冲击的能力。考虑到潜在的经济衰退,投资应谨慎。预算计划对市场非常重要,如果赤字过大,可能会对债券市场产生问题,而促进增长的税收政策对股市很重要。共和党要达成协议还有很长的路要走,市场参与者目前处于观望状态。除了微软,我们不喜欢大多数大型科技公司,因为它们仍然很贵,并且可能面临贸易战的报复。对人工智能的过度热情导致大型科技公司估值过高。谷歌可能是人工智能的受益者,但也面临生存风险。投资者将所有利好因素都计入股价,导致大型科技公司股价上涨,但并非所有公司都能以相同方式受益,人工智能也可能带来负面影响。我们认为美国和国际股市之间存在巨大差异,亚洲市场存在良好机会。我们对中国持谨慎态度,但喜欢韩国、日本和欧洲等国际市场,关税将有利于国际股市。可以利用美国股市上涨的机会,减少对美国风险资产的敞口。可以考虑将资金从大型科技股转移到国际市场,例如喜力(Heineken)和三星(Samsung)。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Asian stocks followed gains in US equities on optimism the US-China trade truce marks the end to an all-out tariff war. Shares in Australia and Japan jumped at the open after the S&P 500 closed more than 3% higher. Japan's Topix gained for a 13th day, putting it on track for it longest winning streak in 16 years. A gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks surged 5.4% on Monday in its best session in over two months. The dollar was little changed in Asia after jumping Monday. The return of risk appetite came as trade negotiators from the world's two biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%. We get reaction from Brian Krawez, President and Lead Portfolio Manager at Scharf Investments.

Plus -  stocks in Pakistan and India rallied Monday as a ceasefire agreement between the two nuclear-armed neighbors calmed markets that had been shaken by military clashes on their border. Pakistan's stock benchmark KSE-30 Index closed 9.3% higher, the most since 2008, in a rally that triggered an hour-long trading halt. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose 3.8% in Mumbai, as both nations stepped back from the brink of war, allowing market participants to turn their focus back to the economic outlook for the South Asian nations. We take a closer look at the outlook for Indian equities with Peeyush Mittal, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Matthews Asia.

See omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.