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cover of episode US Futures Higher on Trade Talk Optimism

US Futures Higher on Trade Talk Optimism

2025/6/30
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Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Louise Liu
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Shams Afzal
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Shams Afzal: 我认为目前的关税政策使得下半年的不确定性与上半年相比没有改善。虽然可能达成一些贸易协议，但这些协议不足以缓解市场对7月9日之后局势的担忧。我认为始于2025年的贸易摩擦可能会持续到年底。尽管如此，市场似乎对此并不敏感，可能因为市场对其他更大的压力源（如4月2日发生的事件）产生了麻木效应。因此，我认为全年维持25%的普遍关税并非一个糟糕的预测。 Shams Afzal: 经过几年的通胀压力，尤其是在住房方面，2025年开始出现通胀缓解的迹象。住房相关活动的通胀缓解有助于抵消商品通胀。我认为美联储对目前的通胀数据感到满意，并可能在今年至少降息两次，甚至可能降息三次。当然，滞胀的风险始终存在，尤其是在GDP增长低于1.5%的情况下。GDP放缓可能导致消费者支出下滑，进而导致GDP连续负增长。但由于存在潜在需求和人工智能的强劲发展，这种情况不太可能成为常态。预计美国经济上半年和下半年的GDP增长率至少为1.5%至1.6%。 Shams Afzal: 债券市场最终决定了关税的实施程度。如果关税大幅提高，债券市场将会做出反应。我认为关税不会达到4月2日的水平，因为债券市场不会允许这种情况发生。未来11到12个月，美国需要处理7万亿美元的债务，因此需要国债保持稳定。 Shams Afzal: 劳动力市场呈现出招聘和解雇速度都很慢的特点。失业人数每周增加2万到2.5万人，新增就业人数可能接近10万。长期失业人数接近190万，这应该促使美联储考虑尽早降息，因为长期失业人数表明劳动力市场并不像美联储所说的那样稳固。 Shams Afzal: 考虑到目前22倍的市盈率，需要更加谨慎。银行和其他受益于收益率曲线趋陡的行业仍然具有投资价值。如果剔除前十大科技股，估值会更合理，我对整体估值并不担心。美元贬值可能会使第二季度的每股收益增加2%至3%，全年收益有望达到9%。美元贬值可能会给跨国公司带来好处，并可能推动股市上涨4%至5%。

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US equity-index futures edged higher as trade talks gathered pace ahead of a July 9 deadline and Senate negotiations continued over President Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cut package. Contracts for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%. Major currencies were slightly higher against the dollar in early Asian trading, while stock futures showed gains in Japan, a decline in Hong Kong and little change in Australia. Crude oil fell 1% as traders wound back risk premium before OPEC+ meeting. We get some market perspective from Shams Afzal, Managing Director at the Carnegie Investment Counsel.Plus - Monetary policymakers from five major economies will gather Tuesday at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal. The summit comes as Trump-era trade turbulence and geopolitical instability weigh on global markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB head Christine Lagarde are set to share a public stage for the first time in a year. For more on how tariffs are impacting economic outlooks, we heard from Louise Loo, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics. She speaks with the hosts of Bloomberg Television's The Asia Trade, Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts.

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