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cover of episode US Futures Pare Losses as Trump Weighs Iran Role

US Futures Pare Losses as Trump Weighs Iran Role

2025/6/20
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

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David Lott
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Maria Rost Rublee
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Maria Rost Rublee: 我认为,美国军事介入伊朗核冲突可能会导致局势升级。以色列需要美国的掩体炸弹才能摧毁伊朗的福尔多铀浓缩设施,否则无法完成对伊朗核计划的打击。如果美国介入,伊朗可能会攻击美国设施,导致局势失控,美国将采取报复行动。即使美国不愿进一步卷入外国事务,但如果美国设施或人员受到攻击,美国国内也会强烈要求报复。内塔尼亚胡声称政权更迭不是其行动的意图,但特朗普暗示可能暗杀霍梅尼。如果伊朗领导人被推翻,伊朗公众舆论和精英可能会更加坚定地认为伊朗需要拥有自己的核武器,以防止未来领导人遭到袭击。以色列的战略自10月7日袭击以来发生了真正的转变,他们采取了更具侵略性的姿态,威慑显然不再奏效。内塔尼亚胡认为他现在可以自由地做他想做的事情,因为他得到了特朗普的默许,可以对伊朗核计划进行打击。你无法通过轰炸一个国家来消除其核计划,除非你摧毁其大学和工业能力,否则他们总能重建,而且会以更秘密的方式重建。欧洲国家正在与伊朗外长会面,以寻求在局势升级为中东全面冲突之前解决问题的方法,因为这将影响石油价格和所有商品的价格。以色列的行动可能只将伊朗的核基础设施推迟了三到四个月,他们摧毁了纳坦兹的地上铀浓缩设施,但没有摧毁地下的设施,也没有摧毁福尔多。防止像以色列这样的核武器国家发动袭击的最好方法是拥有自己的核武器系统。外交的目的是达成一项协议,允许伊朗将铀浓缩到2%到3%,用于民用核能,并进行严格的检查,以确保他们没有作弊。这样的协议可以帮助伊朗人民看到制裁的减轻和情况的改善,并为国内情绪的转变提供时间,从而使他们更倾向于参与国际经济和社会,而不是执着于核武器计划。如果伊朗执着于核武器计划,那只会让他们变成像朝鲜一样丑陋的流氓国家。

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US equity futures moderated declines early Friday as President Donald Trump weighs whether to back Israel militarily in its conflict with Iran. Contracts for the S&P 500 were down around 0.3% from Wednesday's close in early Asia hours, compared with a 0.9% drop on Thursday when US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. While traders were offered some short-term clarity as the White House said Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, the remarks did little to resolve broader uncertainty around potential US involvement and the risk of renewed energy-driven inflation. For more on what's ahead, we heard from Maria Rost Rublee, Professor of International Relations at the University of Melbourne. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Markets were already on edge after the Federal Reserve downgraded its estimates for growth this year and projected higher inflation. As projected, Fed officials held rates steady at their policy meeting this week. We get some analysis from David Laut, Chief Investment Officer at Abound Financial.

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