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cover of episode Why Southeast Asia Matters with Gullnaz Baig

Why Southeast Asia Matters with Gullnaz Baig

2025/1/1
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Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

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Gullnaz Baig: 东南亚各国应认识到自身独特的比较优势,并以此为基础制定发展战略。简单复制其他国家的成功模式并不可取。越南的成功案例体现了地缘政治平衡和快速基础设施建设的重要性。菲律宾则凭借其庞大的英语人口在服务业领域占据优势。 东南亚初创企业应立足区域,充分利用该地区的多元化市场和资源,而非局限于单一国家。 中国是东南亚重要的邻国和投资者,两者关系并非零和博弈,而是互补共存。东南亚国家应积极利用中国在产能和资本方面的优势,在互补领域开展合作,而非直接竞争。 面对全球贸易不确定性和地缘政治风险,东南亚国家应加强区域合作,降低贸易壁垒,增强区域经济韧性。 东南亚人民的多元文化背景和历史是其独特的优势,有助于该地区在全球格局中更好地发挥作用。 东南亚的美好未来在于更多人能够享有财富、优质教育和医疗,以及消除饥饿。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are Vietnam's comparative advantages according to Gullnaz Baig?

Vietnam's comparative advantages include its proximity to China, a strong STEM workforce, high female labor participation, and the ability to navigate geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China delicately. Additionally, Vietnam benefits from rapid infrastructure development and a diverse pool of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, including significant investments from Japan and South Korea.

Why is Southeast Asia considered a resilient region economically?

Southeast Asia has demonstrated economic resilience through stable governance, improving skill sets, and the ability to attract FDI, particularly in manufacturing. The region has also benefited from its strategic position in balancing geopolitical tensions between major powers like the U.S. and China. Despite challenges like COVID-19, countries like Vietnam have shown strong recovery, while overall wealth and living standards have risen across the region.

What are the structural challenges faced by Southeast Asian countries in achieving higher growth?

Key structural challenges include demographic issues like low fertility rates in Singapore and Thailand, rising costs of construction and energy, and resource constraints. Additionally, some countries face barriers to investment due to protectionist policies, such as Indonesia's downstreaming measures. Despite these challenges, trust in governance, infrastructure, and rule of law continues to attract investment in the region.

How does the Philippines leverage its comparative advantages in the services sector?

The Philippines leverages its large English-speaking population, particularly in American English, to excel in business process outsourcing and customer service. This has made the country a hub for services catering to U.S.-based companies, allowing it to move up the value-added layer of services and maintain a competitive edge in the global market.

What is the significance of China's influence in Southeast Asia according to Gullnaz Baig?

China's influence in Southeast Asia is significant due to its role as a major investor in the region, contributing to infrastructure development and domestic capital formation. Southeast Asia views China as a neighbor and a reality, balancing its relationship with China alongside its ties with the West. The region benefits from China's overcapacity in areas like green technology, using it to diversify energy sources and reduce dependency on traditional suppliers.

What does Gullnaz Baig envision as 'great' for Southeast Asia?

Gullnaz Baig envisions a Southeast Asia where more people enjoy wealth, have access to quality education and healthcare, and no child goes to bed hungry. She believes this is achievable through leveraging technology, sustainable growth, and regional collaboration, emphasizing the region's potential to overcome challenges like climate change and economic instability.

Shownotes Transcript

"People always ask us this question, what can I learn from that country? People ask us about this from the report especially when we're talking to policymakers, or what should I learn from Malaysia? What should I learn? The thing to learn is  to not learn  to replicate exactly.  But the thing to learn is sort of what are the principles behind what works for them. What are your comparative advantages, Every country needs to be asking that for themselves. So for Vietnam, comparative advantages are things like  proximity to China, um, and ability at a geopolitical level to navigate between the U.S. and China.  They do this pretty delicately, given their history with both countries. Um, and, and they've managed to sort of, yeah, and also, you know, there's an acquiescence by the major powers also to not force Vietnam to take sides. And, you know, and so it's a delicate balancing game that ASEAN always plays ..." - Gullnaz Baig Fresh out of the studio, Gullnaz Baig, executive director from the Angsana Council, shares her perspectives on the "Southeast Asia Outlook 2024-2034: Navigating the High Winds" report by Angsana Council, DBS and Bain & Co. In our conversation, Gullnaz emphasized Southeast Asia’s unique strengths, including its cultural diversity, openness to innovation, and ability to navigate geopolitical complexities between global powers like China and the U.S. She highlighted Southeast Asia’s resilience, citing its rising wealth, improving standards of living, and comparative advantages such as Vietnam’s strong STEM workforce and the Philippines’ English-speaking talent. Last but not least, she described the importance of leveraging regional collaboration and technology to foster sustainable growth and offered her thoughts on what great would look like for the region.

Episode Highlights: [00:46] Quote of the Day by Gullnaz Baig [01:28] Gullnaz Baig’s Career Journey and Key Milestones [03:53] Introduction to the Angsana Council and Its Mission [05:52] Career Lessons and Importance of Mentorship [07:50] Southeast Asia's Economic Outlook for 2024-2034 [10:03] Collaboration Behind the Southeast Asia Outlook Report [12:46] Economic Resilience of Southeast Asia Over the Past 30 Years [16:58] Structural Challenges Across Southeast Asia [20:29] Vietnam’s Growth Potential and Comparative Advantages [25:17] Philippines’ Services Sector and Comparative Strengths [26:14] Startups in Southeast Asia: Building and Scaling Across Borders [29:51] Southeast Asia’s Receptiveness to New Technology [31:50] China’s Influence and Opportunities in Southeast Asia [34:42] Navigating Geopolitical Tensions Between China and the U.S. [36:29] Leveraging China’s Strengths in Southeast Asia [38:52] The question that Gullnaz would like people to ask her more: Who are Southeast Asians? [45:19] What Does Great Look Like for Southeast Asia? [47:03] Closing

Profile: Gullnaz Baig, Executive Director of Angsana Council LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gullnazbaig/ Angsana Council: https://angsanacouncil.org/member/gullnaz-baig/

Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. Proper credits for the intro and end music: "Energetic Sports Drive" and the episode is mixed & edited in both video and audio format by G. Thomas Craig. Here are the links to watch or listen to our podcast.

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