2025 Oscars Guide And What's Making Us Happy
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A misunderstood witch, an unknowable singer-songwriter, a dejected TV personality, and the dean of cardinals will all walk into the Dolby Theater on Sunday night.

Because it's that time of year again. Yes, it's the Oscars. It's an interesting crop of Best Picture, Director, and Acting nominees, and we're talking about who we think will win and who we think should take home those shiny gold statues. I'm Stephen Thompson. And I'm Aisha Harris. And on this episode of NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, we're offering up a guide to this year's Oscars. Joining us today are our fellow Pop Culture Happy Hour hosts, Linda Holmes. Hey, Linda. Hello.

Hello.

And a couple big blockbusters earned nominations. Stephen, do you want to set those up for us? Sure. We've got Wicked, set before the events of The Wizard of Oz. This musical is the origin story of the Wicked Witch of the West. It stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. Hey!

What a good clip. Perfect clip. I knew that was going to be the moment that we chose. Never let it be said that that movie does not end on a strong note. The other big, big, big blockbuster, you've got Dune Part 2. Timothy Chalamet returns as Paul Atreides, who must now contend with a group called the Harkonnens, who have seized control of the planet. May thy knife chip and shatter.

I was definitely thankful for those recaps for Dune Part 1 before I watched this one. Did you try to read the Wikipedia page about Dune Part 1 before going into Dune Part 2? Because I was more lost than I was going in. Try the books. If you think it's daunting, try the books.

Yes, yes. Well, okay, there's also a handful of smaller but no less ambitious movies that were nominated. And to some degree, I think this crop, we all really liked it, admired quite a few of these. So Linda, can you give us the rundown on these films? Absolutely. Conclave is a fun and twisty look at the secretive process by which a

Pope is replaced. Ralph Fiennes plays the cardinal leading the process. If you want to defeat Tedesco... This is a conclave, Aldo. It's not a war. It is a war!

And world's most smooth segue. In The Substance, Demi Moore plays an aerobics instructor who wants to stay in the spotlight, so she turns to a strange black market drug. Remember, there is no she and you. You are one. Respect the balance, and you won't have any more inconveniences.

Yeah, exactly like picking a pope. It's basically the same thing. It's pretty much the same thing. Nickel Boys is the story of two black boys who form an unshakable bond at a segregated reform school in the Jim Crow South. There are four ways out of nickel. Serve your time or age out. Caught by the Naveen, if you believe in miracles. You could die. They could kill you. You could run.

Those are all very different, but like I said, very ambitious in their own ways. So it's nice to see them in the mix here for sure. And then, of course, we've got the more traditional Best Picture nominees here. Glenn, tell us about this group. Yeah, we've got one of those biopics, A Complete Unknown. Timothy Chalamet playing a young Bob Dylan. The movie follows his rise in the music world. How many roads must a man take?

Six. Six is the answer. We've got the brutalist. Adrian Brody plays a fictional Jewish-Hungarian architect who relocates to the United States after World War II. I would like to draw something and present it to you.

You'd like to win the commission. Yeah. And, you know, for the past several years, we've seen international features nominating the Best Picture category. And so this year, I'm Still Here actually earned a nomination. It's set in 1970s Brazil when it was under a military dictatorship. And it tells the story of a mother dealing with the disappearance of her politician husband. Where's my husband? Go away!

And finally, we've got two movies that I have been making...

Lots of waves. Waves. We're calling them waves now. Okay. We'll talk a little bit more about that in a second. But they've been on the scene since way back at Cannes, the Cannes Film Festival last spring. Stephen, what have we got here? Well, we've got Anora, Sean Baker's movie about an enterprising sex worker who marries the immature son of Russian oligarchs. So you want to get married to me, Vanya? You want me to be your little wifey? Yeah? Yes. Yes.

This accent. Yes. And then there's Emilia Perez. It is about a trans-Mexican cartel boss who disappears from the criminal underworld and eventually reunites with her family after creating a new life as a woman. Changing the body changes society. Changing society changes the soul. Changing the soul changes society. Changing society changes it all.

Okay, well, before we truly dig into who we think will and should win here, it's important for us to sort of briefly touch on the

Controversies that have arisen during awards season. There's the big one. Very soon after the nominations were announced in January, some old racist and Islamophobic tweets made by Amelia Perez star Carla Sofia Gascon resurfaced by journalist Sarah Hagee. Now, in those tweets, the actress used slurs and other disparaging language to refer to a wide range of demographics and people, including Muslims, Chinese people, and George Floyd.

Gascon apologized via an official Netflix statement, but continued to discuss it in interviews, and she suggested there was some kind of larger conspiracy at work against her.

Now, to a lesser degree, the Amelia Perez team has also faced some flack for using AI cloning to widen Gascon's singing range. Amelia Perez led the Oscars race this year with 13 nominations. But I'm actually curious if you all think that these controversies have impacted this film's chance of taking home Best Picture. Linda, I'm...

Let's start with you and what you think will win. Well, I do think that these controversies are going to affect Amelia Perez. And that's partly because I think there are a lot of people who had a lot of misgivings about this movie anyway. And these controversies have sort of given them an opportunity to say, okay, cool. I'm going to rule that one out then. I think if people were more excited about the movie, it probably would have less of an effect. But I do think that is likely to have an effect anyway.

And that left me predicting that The Brutalist would win Best Picture. It is kind of the most traditional Oscars-y movie remaining. It is a heavy historical drama. It has a really strong lead performance from Adrian Brody, who's kind of a very beloved awards-y type of actor. You know, the director, Brady Corbett, has been widely praised for making it on a relatively small budget compared to its sweep.

And despite the fact that there have been a couple of questions raised about use of AI, I think those things are going to fall away. And I think the Brutalist will win. Just to back up a little bit, in case you haven't heard about the AI controversy around the Brutalist, leads Adrian Brody and Felicity Jones were reportedly their voices were fed into some AI software.

And director Brady Korbe said in a statement that only their Hungarian dialogue was enhanced by the AI. But also the film's editor said that generative AI was used as inspiration for some of the architectural drawings that are done by Adrian Brody's character.

So, Stephen, what are your thoughts on what will win? I feel almost word for word the same way Linda does. I feel that The Brutalist is going to wind up reaping a lot of the benefit of some of the blowback against Amelia Pettis. It's a great man historical epic.

running more than three and a half hours in length, what could be more Oscars than that? Yeah, yeah. I mean, one thing I will note is that it's also important to remember that the Oscars are ultimately decided through rank choice voting. And so it doesn't have to be everyone's favorite film. It just has to be enough people's maybe even second favorite film. And I think that is maybe what hurts Amelia Pettis the most.

There may be a passionate contingent putting it first, but there are going to be a lot of people who rank at 10th. Not just me, and I'm not even an Oscar voter. But see, I think the ranked choice voting is going to help Onora. I think a lot of people feel very favorably disposed toward that film. If they don't rank it first, they're going to rank it second or third.

I think the buzz around Anora has been growing. I think this is a real chance for a scrappy little movie like Anora to take it home. Yeah, and that's where you and I align, Glenn. I also think Anora is going to win. It won the Producers Guild of America Awards, and since 2010, every...

winner of the PGA award has also won best picture with three exceptions and then there was also one year where there was a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave wound up winning the Oscars so like I feel like the odds are kind of in Anora's favor but we shall see so we all said who we think will win but like who do

who do we think should win? For me, I think Anora should win. I think it is, to me, the correct choice in part because it subverts expectations around genre. You think it's going to be some sort of like sort of crime movie, but it's also a family comedy and a screwball comedy and a drama. And it just feels like a movie that's

of the moment in a way that most of the other films in this pack do not land for me. It normalizes this depiction of sex work. It also has this very matter-of-fact

take on capitalism that I don't think is either subtle, but it's not preachy either. It's just very resonant. You've just got me piggybacking off people who share my opinions. Yay! I agree. Now, there are several other films in this field that I really dearly love, and I could make a case for Conclave. I could strangely make a case for The Substance. In spite of some plot issues that I had with it, a movie that has really stuck with me and I suspect will continue to stick with me, but Onora, to me, is made with such verb

And for me, it just felt like such a victory lap for Sean Baker, who's been making great movies for a long time now without necessarily a ton of major awards consideration. For me, this is a film that I really, really dug. And it's not, again, I'm going to keep harping on this point, it's not a typical Oscar movie.

I don't know. Well, Linda, I know you were not a huge fan of this and we don't have to get into why. And also like, I love that we have different opinions on this show. So I am curious as to what you think should win. I ultimately went with Nickel Boys. It's the one that I thought was the most emotionally rich and satisfying. It's also the one that I think was the most innovative in terms of filmmaking. People have talked a lot about the first person point of view of

camera work here from the director, Rommel Ross. I think that's really interesting. I think there are some very interesting decisions about what to give away and what to withhold. I think he got some really wonderful work out of the actors in this film.

if we're going to have a big party where we honor people making movies, I want it to be something like this. You know, for me, everything else, there was some reason not to pick it, whether it was, you know, controversy or, you know, for me, the Nora thing of,

sex workers who sort of turn out to just want to be hugged to me is not that interesting and actually is a pretty familiar trope from film. This is what I picked. I picked Nickel Boys. As did I. I thought I was going to be out here all alone, but I join you, Linda. I think I'd like to see the Academy rewarding any innovation, any tweaking of the format. And it's not just that it's told from, you know, through the character's eyes. The

The use of that could have easily been just a distracting gimmick, right? But it's used so smartly to serve the story and to serve the emotions of the story. And not for nothing, this film has a closing montage that's like five, ten minutes long that also could have been confusing, disorienting. But the director, Rommel Ross, is going back to his experimental film roots.

That montage took you by the hand. It guided you along in such a confident and assured way. You knew exactly what was happening, which is yet another reason the fact that we didn't get a

nomination for directing or cinematography or editing. Cinematography. Yeah. How did this not get nominated for cinematography? You know, what are we awarding here? Outstanding achievement of these 10 films. This is the outstanding achievement. I would be so happy to see this when it has stayed with me months later. And I think it's just such a beautiful film that I need to rewatch. I definitely need to rewatch. And I think it rewards a rewatch.

And we should also note that Nickel Boys is actually released by Amazon MGM Studios, and Amazon supports NPR and pays to distribute some of our content. So another note I want to make is that we are going to be making these next predictions before the Screen Actor Guild Awards have come out at the time of this recording. So...

Ordinarily, as I did with the best picture, I would have kind of like dug into my back and looked, oh, who won SAG Awards? And that would have helped inform my opinions here. We're just out here being brave. That's all. We're being brave. We're out here naked. Just sheets of the wind. We're doing that. How will we ever make an accurate prediction from this field? I have no idea.

So let's move on to the acting categories and let's start with the lead actress category. Stephen, who is nominated here? Cynthia Erivo for Wicked. Erivo plays Elphaba in this origin story about the Wicked Witch of the West. Ah!

Sorry, we just got it every time. Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here. Torres plays a mother, an activist whose life is upturned when her politician husband goes missing during the military dictatorship in Brazil. Mikey Madison for Anora. Madison plays a New York sex worker who marries the son of Russian oligarchs.

Carla Sofia Gascon for Amelia Perez. Gascon plays the titular Amelia Perez, a trans cartel leader who leaves the criminal underworld to begin a new life. She's the first openly trans actress or actor of any gender nominated in an acting category. And then we've got the presumed frontrunner. Aisha, I don't think you need the SAG Awards to predict this one. Demi Moore for The Substance. Moore plays a TV aerobics instructor who turns to a mysterious black market drug to stay young.

I need you. Me and myself. We've... You gotta... You gotta get ready. It's our big... It's our big night. Thank you so much.

All right. And I'm pretty sure that we all think Demi Moore is going to walk away with this award. Linda, why do you think she'll win? Well, I mean, some of it is just forecasting based on, you know, awards already won and sort of critical reaction already received. But also, I think she has exactly the kind of story that.

that often does well at the Oscars. Demi Moore has been around for a really long time. She talked about this at the Golden Globes. She was originally kind of pigeonholed as a pop movie actress. As she put it, a popcorn actress.

And I think she's been really good in a number of different things for a long time, but not the kinds of things that necessarily got her awards recognition. You know, first of all, people tend to think it's very brave when you go through some sort of body transformation and do something that looks ugly and gross, especially if you are a woman who came up as a

Yeah.

And sometimes that really helps just to have been around forever, acting with a ton of people, working in a ton of projects. I think that's going to do it. I think she will win. If you're looking for any kind of dark horse in this race in terms of somebody who has the potential to win, I wouldn't 100% rule out Fernanda Torres, who gives a pretty magnificent performance in I'm Still Here, who really carries that film, and who is a very...

again, a veteran actress who has done a ton of great work. I don't think she will win against Demi Moore, but this is definitely one of the most heralded performances of the year and one that I could see slipping through. Well,

Well, and I do want to add, you know, it's easy now to look at this and be like, oh, yeah, it's going to be Demi Moore, obviously, ho-hum. But, like, go back to reading this script, right? Oh, absolutely. Go back to the moment when this script shows up. And you look at it, and it's like, I mean, now it feels like Demi Moore is going to cakewalk to the Best Actress Oscar for this horror movie in which she winds up as a blob of tissue by the end of it. I mean... So Catherine Hepburn did it. The un...

The unlikelihood of getting recognized for horror, the unlikelihood of getting recognized for something as strange as this movie is, this is not something you would take thinking, like, I'm going to cakewalk to an Oscar for playing this part. Now, Glenn, who do you think should win the award? I think I have a sense of who you're thinking here. Yeah, it's to me. It's Will and Should. I mean, for all the reasons we've talked about. Plus, it's the only shot this very weird movie has at a major award, one of the big five. So, yeah, let's give it.

I absolutely think she's deserving and I will be thrilled if she wins. However, in this category, I decided to go with Cynthia Erivo and I'll tell you why. Yeah, I get that. Wicked has sort of fallen out of most of the major Oscar conversations at this point in its life. And I think that's...

because I don't think it's a perfect movie. I think a lot of its charm comes from the source material and the performances. But to me, the last 15 to 20 minutes of that film, which include, obviously, Defying Gravity, which obviously became immediately a meme and a TikTok sound. And, you know, there were things of like a dog on a broomstick going up into the sky with, it's me. It's me.

I think that sequence is good enough that that is what a movie star who is a good actor is supposed to do. And when you put on top of it the fact that I think it is a hell of a performance of a really good song, like, what am I asking for, right? Like, what am I asking people for if not this? What am I rewarding if not this? I picked Cynthia Erivo. I have no regrets. None at all. I love it. I love that. Solid performance.

pick. Steven, who do you think should win? I went with Mikey Madison for Onora. I think the movie falls apart if she doesn't give a great performance. I think she manages to bring just huge amounts of charisma and energy. This

performance could so easily have dipped into caricature and maybe Linda thinks it did dip into caricature. I don't know, but I really found this to be just like a very vibrant and committed performance from somebody I can't wait to see in more movies. No, I think she's wonderful. I think she is absolutely wonderful. I think the charisma that you talk about is a hundred percent real and

My issue is with the ending. I think the ending sells out the character and sells out what the movie was doing at the beginning. But it's only the ending that irritated me. I get that. Yeah.

Yeah, I get that. I mean, Stephen, you and I are aligned. I also would really love to see Mikey Madison take this home. I've been a huge fan of hers ever since she was in Better Things, the great Pamela Adlon show as one of her daughters. I've seen some criticisms of the film as being like a movie where we don't learn much about the Mikey Madison character and that she's just this one note, you know, sex worker and

And I disagree with that hard. I think that just because we don't learn every single detail about her backstory, that doesn't mean that she's not a fully realized character. I think that there are just these so many great moments and interactions that hint at

at both her social class, her status in life. And I think the ending actually is one of the great endings. But look, we're not here to deliberate that. I'm just here to say that I loved Mikey Madison. And look, I'd be happy if Cynthia Erivo won. I'd also be happy if Demi Moore won. I probably had my Anora expectations raised too high. That's probably part of what happened. So that's also possible.

All right. Well, let's move on to the nominations for actor in a leading role. Glenn, why don't you set that up for us? Sure. We've got Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing. Domingo plays an incarcerated man who finds purpose by acting in a theater troupe. We've got Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Fiennes plays the cardinal who is managing the process of finding a new pope.

We've got Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. Stan plays a young Donald Trump establishing his career in real estate and his relationship with the attorney Roy Cohn. And then we have the two presumed frontrunners, Adrian Brody, as we've talked about, for The Brutalist. Brody plays a visionary Hungarian architect who moves to America to rebuild his life after World War II. And Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. He plays Bob Dylan. All right. So I'm going to go first here because I guess I'm the only one.

who is convinced that Timothy is probably going to pull off a Rami Malek here. I was looking at sort of this entire crop of nominees, and unlike with the best actress category, there's not really any that are transformative in the traditional way. In the Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill. Or, you know, the whale, Brendan Fraser, like that kind of thing. DiCaprio and the Revenant.

Like that's not happening here. And so I think for me, we can never underestimate the enthusiasm of the Academy's boomer and raucous membership, as well as its tendency to love actors who play real people. Again, Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Will Smith in King Richard, Gary Oldman, Cillian Murphy, Daniel Day-Lewis, Colin Firth, on and on and on, like over the last 15, 20 years,

A lot of the winners in this category have been playing real people. And I don't know if the Dylan cosplay on SNL hurt or helped Xiaomei's chances. I think maybe it's possible they just kind of neutralized them.

I feel as though Timothy has a very good shot, and I would not be surprised to see him wind up with the Oscar. I think one thing I would add to that is that he has been campaigning his rear end off for months and months, and that does come into play. I mean, you talked about SNL, where he appeared on SNL as the host and the musical guest performing Dylan songs. He is really trying to

Yeah.

It's impressive, but it's the default choice. Listen, I like Little Timmy. I think if Little Timmy is going to win an Oscar this year for either of the two snotty little megalomaniacs that he played in movies this year, it's obviously it will be this one. Sunsets and seagulls, smell of buttercups. Your songs are like an oil painting at the dentist's office.

You're kind of an a**hole. I think he plays a pretty good snotty megalomaniac, but I do think that the movie is not good enough. And

And I think the movie itself has too many weaknesses. But I agree with Glenn that the Brody performance is more, you know, traditionally Oscars-y. I think the Academy loves him. That's the direction I think they're going to go. I'm the only one here. I'm standing alone here on my Club Chalamet boat. Look, I think Timothee Chalamet is going to win an Oscar. Yes. At some point. I'm not sure if it's for this film. I'm a little higher on this film than Linda is. I don't know.

I really love really all three of the central performances in this film. For me, I mean, Adrian Brody, it is a great Oscar-winning performance. He's terrific in it. Even if I think that film kind of careened off the rails in its second half,

His performance is so solid at the center of it that it never crashes into the ditch. Stephen, we are going to have to have a beer sometime and discuss how you are anti-traditional Oscar movies and pro a complete unknown. Thank you. I have been trying to make these things connect for years.

Ever since I found out how much he likes this very boring movie. But we're going to have a beer. It's not for today. Not for today. We're going to have a beer and have it out. There's not as much contradiction there as you think. Mystified. I think Brody will and should, but I do want to put in a word for that Coleman Domingo performance, which I think is magnificent in Sing Sing, a movie I would have loved to have seen in the best picture field. I think it's a terrific performance and a very, very good

Well, Stephen, you're happy because I pick Coleman Domingo for should win. I think he makes that film a hell of a lot more compelling than it could have been. On paper, after all, it is, let's face it, a feel-good movie about the carceral state. I just get itchy whenever there's any kind of narrative, any kind of marginalized group, and the narrative is, well, at least they have Shakespeare. You know, I just, that rubs me the wrong way. I don't think that's what that movie does. No, not at all. He is the reason that a film that could have been about...

you know, this very tidy kind of neoliberal uplift has any real grit in the gears at all. He's the thing that makes it work. I just want to point out they're not staging Hamlet. They're staging their own weirdo show that has like a little tiny smidgen. There's mummies. There's time traveling. Yeah. You're missing the point. It's not that they're staging Hamlet. Hamlet is just a tiny part of that bonkers production. It also has Freddy Krueger. Yeah. Yes.

I also chose Coleman Domingo. I think this is a spectacular performance. First of all, I think he's possibly our most charismatic and reliable actor working right now for me. I would not disagree with that. He is perhaps the actor most able to elevate literally anything, but I don't actually think he has to here because I think this is a wonderful film.

And I will also say we talk a lot about sort of what I would consider to be like side factors that affect not wanting to vote for things, whether it's AI or it's controversy or something like that. I will freely admit there are some side factors here.

That make me root for this film, including, you know, a lot of the actors in it are, in fact, formerly incarcerated people who were part of this program, some of whom worked on the story. They also had a really interesting and I encourage you to read about this. I won't explain the whole thing, but a really interesting compensation program.

scheme in which everybody sort of got paid the same to work on the film, no matter who they were. So I love this movie. It should have been nominated for Best Picture. I rate that it wasn't. And Coleman Domingo rules and is king forever. Yeah. Look, in a just world, Clarence Macklin, who is one of the other performers in this movie and a formerly incarcerated person who contributed to the storytelling of this film,

would have also been up here in this category because he, to me, gives just as good of a performance. But I am glad that Coleman Domingo is here and I am with you both, Glenn and Linda, that I think he should win. So it sounds like Glenn, Linda, and I are for...

Coleman Domingo. Say it, we're right. You've actually fully talked me into this. I was on the fence. Unanimous, pro-Coleman Domingo. Bullying for the win. No, you know what? If you're going to bully me in any direction, bully me in the direction of Coleman Domingo, who's genuinely one of the best actors in the world. A late stage change in the numbers. Four for Coleman Domingo. Deathbed conversion. Yes.

All right. Well, up next, we're going to talk about more of the Oscar nominees, including supporting actor, actress, and director. So grab those cheat sheets and come right back. This message comes from Charles Schwab. When it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices, like full-service wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on Thinkorswim. Visit Schwab.com to learn more.

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Welcome back. We're going to move on to actress in a supporting role. Stephen, what do you have for us here? Okay, we've got Ariana Grande in Wicked. She plays Galinda the Good Witch. Felicity Jones for The Brutalist. Jones plays the wife of a famed architect who reunites with him in America. She plays the wife of a famous artist.

Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. She's a strategic nun who works at the Vatican. Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. Barbaro plays acclaimed singer-songwriter Joan Baez as she navigates her relationship with Bob Dylan. And Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Saldana plays a lawyer who is forced to help a Mexican cartel leader find a new identity and life. ♪

That is going to win Best Original Song, and it is a bad song. Linda, where are you placing your odds here? I think based on precursor awards and kind of general sense, I suspect it's going to be Zoe Saldana, which despite the fact that it's not a supporting performance and I don't like the movie, but I think that's who's going to win. Yeah, I agree. I think the Academy is looking around for a way to defend its decisions, to pelt this movie with a few salaud nominations. Yeah.

And giving it to her is a way for them to save face. And she's another one been around for a long time. She also, but she is the best thing in that movie, which is almost saying nothing. So they're rewarding the one aspect that they can feel good about. They're taking the nugget of gold out of the pile of poop.

Yeah. I mean, I think Saldana is going to win. I think it's easy to overstate how much a backlash might prevent the Oscars from giving Oscars to something. We were all around for Green Book. We all remember Crash. Like there have certainly been a number of films that were heavily, heavily criticized or heavily, heavily controversial leading up to the Oscars where people told Oscar voters over and over again, don't vote for this movie because X, Y, Z.

And the Oscars have ignored that. And I think this is one very easy way for them to stubbornly continue to support this movie. Also, don't forget Power of Netflix. Well, sure. She gives a very strong performance. Is it a supporting role? It is not. But I don't think that's going to deter any voters. Here I am, a lion on my own.

Because I did not choose Saldana. Look, maybe I'm the lone person who's maybe not the most cynical about this category. I don't know why. I just decided not to be. You're pretty cynical in general. I know. But in this case, I kind of feel like perhaps Ariana Grande might win. So here's the thing. Look, is Saldana playing in...

in a musical performance, yes, I guess. It's barely a musical. It's mostly ASMR level vocals with Amelia Perez. But Ariana Grande is very much in a musical. She's very much giving a musical theater performance. And those performances do tend to be favored in this category. Think about Ariana DeBose and West Side Story and Hathaway and Les Mis, J-Hud and Dreamgirls, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Chicago. Like,

I also think Ariana Grande has a lot of goodwill, despite the fact that this press tour has been going on forever. I do feel as though she kind of touches lots of different segments of both theater and music and movies in a way that could help her get this award. I also think she should win in this category.

I'm cynical on my will with Zoe Saldana, but I'm with you in hope with Only You Should. I mean, I think she surprised a lot of people with her comic timing, which were, let's remember, honed in the fires of Nickelodeon. And she's just got this quality of, I know exactly what I'm doing. I understand this assignment. I'm going to commit to the bit. There's nothing new from the coming cartoon.

I would never advocate for her because that is not a supporting performance. I am in my era of being against category fraud. Fair enough. I'm going to be the sole rebel who goes with Isabella Rossellini in Conclave. I think she brings such an important...

note of kind of campy seriousness in a way to this film. You can get very absorbed in how this little group of men is sort of shuffling all around talking to each other and it's very exclusionary of women in general and she's kind of looking in on this process from the outside. The whole movie is sort of silly and gossipy and she certainly is keyed into that. But I also think there's a gravity in how she seems to understand some of the

The weight of this. I also love her and think she's such an interesting actor. It's a very quiet performance. I think if it weren't Isabella Rossellini, I'm not sure it gets nominated because there is a certain amount of name recognition that I think goes into this nomination. But it is a true supporting performance. It is. And it's a terrific supporting performance in a movie that I really, really enjoyed.

This is where Linda and I are going to have to have an extra beer later because I know Linda and I disagree on this very, very deeply. But I love Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown. To me, it's a flawed but very solid film for what it's trying to do. And if it didn't have that performance, it would fall apart. I'm not the one you wanted

First of all, she sings as Joan Baez beautifully. She's there to kind of undercut a lot of his self-mythology. And I felt like she was kind of cutting him off at the knees all the time in ways that I really appreciated as a viewer. Because one thing you get from that film is that young Bob Dylan is a huge jerk.

I loved her performance. I loved Edward Norton's performance as Pete Seeger. I felt like they're there to provide kind of counterweights to how Dylan sees himself. And so I love this performance. I was thrilled that it was nominated. I know it was kind of on the bubble to be nominated. I love that it's here, and I'm rooting for her even though I don't think she's going to win. All right.

Well, I think the rest of us are... Everybody on this panel disagrees with me. I can feel it happening. I'm wrapping all of your scorn around me like a blanket. How does it feel? All right. The next category today is actor in a supporting role, Linda, who is nominated in this category. All right. So nominated in this category, we have Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, the movie that we were just discussing.

playing the singer-songwriter Pete Seeger. We have Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, playing the wealthy and prominent industrialist who enlists Adrian Brody's character to build a lavish community center. Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. Strong plays lawyer Roy Cohn, who develops a relationship with the young Donald Trump.

Yura Borisov for Anora. Borisov plays a Russian henchman who is like maybe the only nice person in the entire movie. And the presumed front runner is Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Culkin plays the adrift Benji who goes on a Holocaust tour of Poland with his cousin, played by Jesse Eisenberg. You don't feel weird being in a first class car? No.

No, we paid for it. It's not hurting anybody. Dude, we are Jews on a train in Poland. Think about it.

Well, as Linda has already hinted, we all think Kieran will win. And most of us think he should win, though not all of us. Stephen, tell me why you think he will win. Well, it's a magnificent performance. It is very much the performance on which this film hangs. I also really love Jesse Eisenberg in this movie. First of all, I love this film in general. This is a very compact and thoughtful and really well-written, really well-acted film.

And Kieran Culkin is magnetic. He's magnificent throughout. I really don't have any notes on this performance. The only caveat, which Linda will say if I don't, is that it's massive category fraud. This is a lead acting performance. This is not a supporting performance in any way, shape, or form.

So I think he absolutely will run away with it. He's run away in this category in basically every other award. And I think he'll continue to do so. Though I would put in good words both for Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown and for Yura Borisov in Anora. I think both of those performances are terrific. I agree he's not supporting. But you and I, Ayesha, we live in the real world, right? We're not off in some wonderland where category fraud doesn't exist. Yeah. I mean, I think he should win. I think this is a...

A role that you can't really picture anyone else playing. It is also a role in a performance that, yes, it calls to mind Culkin's other role specifically on Succession, but it does so in a very different way. Just the moment in which Kieran Culkin says the words, oh, snap. Yeah, I mean, I think he certainly will win. No question. Genius. Genius.

not supporting, not doing it, not going to pretend that's a supporting performance and therefore not going to give him my should win. However, when I watched A Complete Unknown, and here is where I give Steven some of what he desperately wants, which is, you know, my love of A Complete Unknown. When I saw Edward Norton stand up in A Complete Unknown and begin speaking in court as Pete Seeger, it just made my heart beat.

Just absolutely grow three sizes, as they say. I am very familiar with Pete Seeger. I've listened to a lot of Pete Seeger. I've listened to a lot of Pete Seeger talking and singing. And boy, does he have the essence of Pete Seeger. And it's not just in the sense of an impersonation. It's that I think he brings sort of the essence of who that guy was and how he came across to people and the ways in which he was different from Bob Dylan. Bob Dylan was never looking to become Pete Seeger.

That is the most important thing to understand is that Pete Seeger loved the music that that kid was making, but that that kid was not looking to follow in his footsteps at all. I think they capture that really well and sort of the discomfort of that really well. So I went with Edward Norton, who, again, great actor, done a ton of stuff I really like over many, many years.

delighted to be in his corner for an award that he is definitely not going to win. We're all here just laboring with our little teaspoons and you come and bring a shovel. And thanks to you, we're almost there. We're on the verge of tipping it, Bob, and you're our closing act. And finally, finally, we've got the director race.

Up for nominations are Coralie Farja for The Substance, Jacques Odiard for Emilia Perez, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. Okay. Brady Corbett for The Brutalists and Sean Baker for Anora. Stephen, who do you think is going to win? I think Brady Corbett is going to win for The Brutalists. I think

It's such a perfect Oscar story to make a sweeping Oscar-winning three-and-a-half-hour-plus epic for apparently roughly $10 million. I think that is the kind of story that speaks to Oscar voters. You know, kind of going back to that old Roger Ebert line where you can replace...

Oscar categories just replaced the word best with most. He did the most directing as far as making this huge sweeping film. Yeah, I also think Courbet is going to win. I think that most years I try to make predictions about the Oscars based on the story that I think Hollywood is interested in telling about itself. And I think right now the story that they are interested in telling about themselves is we still make big, sweeping, important historical epics, and they don't have to cost all that much money.

and we can continue to make them in a fundamentally, increasingly hostile environment for art. And I think that's what they're going to be drawn to. I also think there's legitimately some very good directing in this movie. I don't want to sound like I'm making light of that. You know, there is some lovely work done with the directing and cinematography that brings some real beauty to brutalist architecture that is not always gorgeous to look at if not shot correctly. I think the directing and cinematography does a good job of

bringing out what makes some of these styles and works seem magical. I think ultimately that's what's going to win. Well, Glenn, I know you and I are twin souls here in the fact that we think who will and should win is the same in this category. Yeah, it's Sean Baker. Let's real talk. Rommel Ross's name should be in the mix here. He directed Nickel Boys. But again, real world, not some Pollyanna fantasy world. Sean Baker is

I almost want to go with him on principle, right? Because he makes exactly the kind of movies that people have been telling us for years don't get made anymore. And then you look at the field. Emilia Perez is a bad movie. A Complete Unknown to me is a boring movie. The substance is fun, but I think we all agree it's not entirely in control of itself. And The Brutalist is your hyper-conventional pick. But Onora is a movie that just keeps surprising you and changes, you know, its tone changes. It takes turns in the plot.

And it feels a little disjointed when you're watching it. But when you look back at it, it all feels of a piece, all feels in control. And that's all down to Sean Baker. Yeah. I mean, agree with everything you said here. I also, in terms of who, like why I think he will win, I'm just looking at the fact that he won the Director's Guild of America Award. And there's a lot of overlap there. There has been in the winners of that.

and then went on to win Best Director. And also, I just think he deserves to win here. If I said Enora should win Best Picture, I also think I feel like that should align here. And I have small issues with every other movie in a way that I don't have with Enora. I could not complain if Sean Baker won. I loved Enora. I loved his work directing it. He has done magnificent work for a really long time now. But I...

to put a stake in the ground for Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, who made a movie that is...

stunning to look at. A big and bold, wild and weird swing. I have some issues with kind of the general story and how well it hangs together logically, but I think as an audacious piece of filmmaking, as the kind of movie that I would love to see the Oscars consider more often, she is definitely the audacious French director that I would like to see rewarded here. I'd like to replace Jacques Audiard with Denis Villeneuve.

For me, I think Coralie Fargeat is kind of the one that I'm rooting for, even though I don't think she has a chance. Well, Stephen and I are ending on a welcome note of agreement. Aw, harmony. I also went with Coralie Fargeat. The movie that I look at, and I think I can't imagine what this movie would have looked like with any other director, is The Substance. This movie...

is a lot harder than it looks now in retrospect, now that it's popular and now that it's a beloved project by a kind of legacy actress, if I can call her that. I think getting this movie from the conception point to...

the actual where it's at now required a lot of people's brilliant guidance, including the director. I love the way that this film plays with color, which is obviously to the credit of a lot of other people in the crew who worked on the film. I think the way that it deals with the body horror that it presents is really interesting. I think the way that it kind of uses an 80s aerobics aesthetic in certain places is really interesting and successful. I go with Coralie Fargeau also. Stephen and I

our in agreement on this one. I love this. Our 20 year friendship is saved. Yeah.

Well, you should definitely make sure to check out our feed on Monday morning. We'll have a recap of the Oscars telecast right here in your podcast feed. You won't want to miss it. And we want to know what you think about this year's Oscar nominees. There are, of course, many we weren't able to get to, but we'll be discussing a lot of them after the telecast. And you can find us on Facebook at facebook.com slash PCHH. Up next, what is making us happy this week?

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And now it's time for our favorite segment of this week and every week. What's making us happy? Glenn, let us know. I'm keeping it on the Oscar tip. It's a wonderful night for Oscar, Oscar, Oscar. Who will win? Flow is one of the films nominated for Best Animated Feature this year. It's also up for Best International Feature Film.

And it's the first Latvian film to be nominated for any Academy Awards. You can watch it on Max. It is a Latvian film, but there are no subtitles because there is no dialogue. It is about a cat who survives a flood that seems to cover most of the earth, and they're forced to reject all their cat-like intuition and actually work with others. So there's a capybara and a lemur and the dumbest, the doofiest, the most obnoxiously cheerful golden retriever that they have to work with.

If that makes it sound cutesy, there's nothing Disney-fied or Dreamworks-ian about them because so much work has been done to not to anthropomorphize these animals, right? All their actions and reactions are kind of kept as realistic as possible. Cat people are going to watch this and think, yes, that's exactly what my cat would do. And dog people like me are going to watch it and think, yes, that is just what my dumb jock of a dog would do. It's great. My husband refused to watch this because he saw the trailer and said, it seems artsy. It seemed like homework. So I watched it by myself.

don't be like my idiot husband who missed out on one of the best films of the damn year in the market for a new husband, actually, someone who makes better choices. Watch Flo on Max and then you can root along with me for it on Oscar night. Happy to accept your cast-off husband, a lovely person. If you would like to come and live in my house platonically, that is perfectly fine. I was going to say, Glenn's husband is amazing, but okay. All right. Well,

Well, Linda, what is making you happy? So I really did sit around this week thinking, what is making me happy? And I'm going to stay also Oscars adjacent. I talked a little bit about how much Pete Seeger I have listened to. And in the last few weeks, I've spent a lot of time listening to Pete Seeger. If you can track down one that is called We Shall Overcome, either as a double CD or on streaming, that is one where he performs a

a handful of Bob Dylan songs. And it was recorded only within, I think, a week or two of when The Freewheeling Bob Dylan came out. Anything you can find of Pete Seeger, anything you can find of the Weavers, the group that he sang with for a really long time, not only is happy-making, but also is really stirring, and a lot of it is

about difficult times and times of trial and things like that. And I recommend it most highly, and you can find lots of recordings of both him and that group kicking around wherever you get your music. Awesome. Thanks so much, Linda. Stephen, what is making you happy? Well, all this awards-caliber cinema has had me hankering for something that will continue to expand my horizons, broaden my palette, perhaps even

Even nurture my soul. And I think you know where I'm going with this. Deal or no deal island. Trash TV. Is airing on NBC, streaming on Peacock. And look, if you were like me, maybe you saw the phrase deal or no deal island kind of go by on your TV schedule. You thought the Howie Mandel thing with the suitcases on an island and never thought of it again. Mm-hmm.

But Deal or No Deal Island is basically a mashup of about six different shows, including Deal or No Deal. They still do the thing with the suitcases at the end of each episode. But the purposes of that are different. There are also elements of Survivor and The Challenge and Big Brother and other shows with alliances and hurt feelings and splashing in the mud. It's held together in this case by Joe Manganiello, who was born to do this.

If you're a Magic Mike person, as I am... I was going to say, does he wear a shirt or not wear a shirt? Yeah, that's the question. He's wearing, like, neat linens. You'll still... You'll be glad. Yeah.

I mean, linens are nice. He looks good in a linen. So he was born to do this. It's all a very light lift. It's a lot of fun to watch. If you like these competition shows but scoffed at the idea of a show called Deal or No Deal Island, I'm here to tell you it's been a lot of fun. It may just be the palate cleanser that you need this Oscars weekend. That is Deal or No Deal Island airing on NBC and streaming on Peacock.

Glenn, you should recommend that to your husband. Faust and I will hang out. We'll watch some Deal or No Deal Island. Probably. I mean, if he's looking for things that are not artsy. Homework. I know. Well, what's making me happy this week is Sly Lives, a.k.a. The Burden of Black Genius, which is a documentary about the legendary Sly Stone and directed by Questlove.

Now, is this Questlove's Oscar-winning debut, Summer of Soul? No. That's a tough fact to follow. It's actually really kind of almost impossible to follow. This is a movie that's about not only Stone's groundbreaking artistry, but it also explores how that artistry has been historically undervalued through interviews with people like Chaka Khan, Q-Tip, D'Angelo. We get a lot of great little clips and moments and soundbites from those folks.

But I think the best thing about this is when the talking heads get super, super nerdy about the music itself. There's some great sequences where you have Nile Rodgers, Jimmy Jam, Terry Lewis. They're like breaking down the instrumentation and the vocals on songs like Dance to the Music. And it's just like a real fun delight. And so I highly recommend, especially if you like Summer of Soul, check out Sly Libs, aka The Burden of Black Genius. And that is streaming on Hulu now.

So that's what's making me happy. And we've also got a special announcement. You've heard us talking about Pop Culture Happy Hour Plus many times on this podcast. And in a few weeks, we're actually going to be releasing some monthly bonus content episodes. These are going to be mailbag style. Stephen and Linda, you're actually going to be in that first episode. So tell us a little bit about what you discuss. That's right. We answered a question from listener Elizabeth R.,

about what's more fun to discuss, something you love or something you hate, and whether we like it when our feelings conflict with one of the other hosts. So we kind of got into a little bit of the, like, what is fun to talk about, what's not so fun to talk about. Yeah, and as you've heard on this episode, we never actually disagree. So, you know, that isn't a problem. Yeah.

Yes, yes, yes. So if you want to get these monthly bonus mailback episodes and hear Stephen and Linda disagree and agree sometimes, you should subscribe now to Pop Culture Happy Hour Plus at plus.npr.org slash happy hour.

That brings us to the end of this big Oscars extravaganza show. Glenn Weldon, Stephen Thompson, and Linda Holmes, thanks so much for being here. We all owe each other beers at this point. Oh, absolutely. We'll make it happen. Absolutely. Thank you, Aisha. Thank you. Beers and fights. Thank you, friend.

This episode was produced by Liz Metzger and edited by Jessica Reedy. And Hello, Come In provides our theme music. Thanks for listening to Pop Culture Happy Hour from NPR. I'm Aisha Harris. We'll see you on Monday when we'll be recapping the Oscars and probably finding some more about who won.

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