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cover of episode Ex-Google China President on How China Is Shaping the Future of AI w/ Kai-Fu Lee | EP #134

Ex-Google China President on How China Is Shaping the Future of AI w/ Kai-Fu Lee | EP #134

2024/12/5
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Kai-Fu Lee: 谷歌目前的广告驱动模式难以持续,需要向单一答案搜索引擎转型,但这面临着巨大的挑战。中国企业家拥有强大的执行力,能够快速将创新转化为产品。在生成式AI领域,虽然中国起步较晚,但他创立01.AI旨在弥补这一差距,并通过开源模式促进全球合作。他认为,在未来几年,AI将融入到各个移动应用中,带来颠覆性的变化,并对就业市场产生深远的影响。他还对脑机接口技术的发展持谨慎态度,认为需要关注其潜在风险。 Kai-Fu Lee: 美国在突破性创新方面领先,而中国在执行方面更胜一筹。中国企业家更注重产品的实用性和用户体验,并善于利用互联网进行测试和迭代。在AGI的研发方面,虽然巨额投资是必要的,但也需要注意避免递减收益,并关注应用生态系统的建设。大型语言模型的成本正在下降,但这并不意味着它们已经‘有效免费’,应用仍然需要考虑成本问题。01.AI 通过高效的模型训练和推理技术,降低了成本,并在性能上取得了显著进步。 Kai-Fu Lee: 他创立01.AI的部分原因是为了防止中国在生成式AI领域落后。他认为,生成式AI将成为未来社会的重要基础设施,所有国家和人都应该能够平等地获得这项技术。开源是促进全球合作的重要方式,01.AI 积极参与开源社区,并回馈社区。 Peter: 谷歌的广告驱动模式可能无法长期持续,需要进行商业模式转变。美国在突破性创新方面领先,而中国在执行方面更胜一筹。中国企业家拥有令人难以置信的职业道德,并且拥有更全球化的视野。B2B领域正逐渐形成平行宇宙,而B2C领域受影响较小。尽管在追求AGI方面努力独立,但学术界和开源社区的思想交流依然活跃。谷歌需要进行商业模式转变,才能适应生成式AI带来的单一答案搜索模式。他对于AI未来发展趋势,就业市场影响以及中美AI竞争与合作都表达了自己的看法。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Kai-Fu Lee decide to transition from being an investor to founding 01.AI?

Kai-Fu Lee transitioned to founding 01.AI after realizing the potential of generative AI following OpenAI's ChatGPT launch. He felt that starting a Gen AI company in China was crucial to prevent the country from falling behind in AI advancements, especially since OpenAI's models were not available in China. He believed his experience and network gave him a unique opportunity to build a competitive AI company tailored for the Chinese market.

What is the significance of the '996' work ethic in Chinese entrepreneurship?

The '996' work ethic, which stands for working from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week, is a hallmark of Chinese entrepreneurship. It reflects the intense dedication and hard work of Chinese entrepreneurs, who often prioritize rapid execution and scaling over work-life balance. This ethic has been a driving force behind China's ability to execute and scale innovations effectively.

How does Kai-Fu Lee view the future of Google's advertising-driven business model in the age of generative AI?

Kai-Fu Lee believes Google's advertising-driven business model is unsustainable in the long term due to the rise of generative AI, which provides single, direct answers to queries. He predicts that Google will face an innovator's dilemma, as transitioning to a new business model would require sacrificing significant advertising revenue, which is challenging for a publicly listed company.

What is the role of open-source AI in the development of 01.AI?

Open-source AI plays a critical role in 01.AI's development by enabling collaboration and leveraging existing technologies from the global AI community. Kai-Fu Lee emphasizes the importance of giving back to the open-source community, as 01.AI uses open-source tools like NVIDIA's Megatron and Microsoft's Deep Speed. The company follows the Apache license, allowing others to use its models without restrictions.

What are Kai-Fu Lee's predictions for the AI industry in the next 2-3 years?

Kai-Fu Lee predicts that within the next 2-3 years, every mobile app will incorporate AI, leading to disruptive changes in how apps function. He expects AI agents to become a major technology, enabling users to delegate tasks rather than just receive answers. Additionally, he foresees significant advancements in multimodal AI, with applications like text-to-video becoming mainstream and finding real-world uses in areas like marketing.

How does Kai-Fu Lee assess the risks and benefits of AI over the next decade?

Kai-Fu Lee estimates a 5% chance of AI causing a disaster, a 35% chance of humans misusing AI to cause harm, and a 60% chance of AI being overwhelmingly beneficial. He advocates for more AI safety research and applying existing laws to regulate AI misuse, rather than creating new, untested regulations. He believes technological solutions are the best way to mitigate AI risks.

What challenges does China face in AI development due to limited access to GPUs?

China faces significant challenges in AI development due to U.S. restrictions on GPU exports, limiting access to critical computing resources. Kai-Fu Lee highlights that 01.AI operates with only 2,000 GPUs, a fraction of what U.S. companies like OpenAI and Google use. This scarcity has driven the company to focus on efficiency and innovation to compete globally.

What is the mission of Beago, the AI search engine developed by Kai-Fu Lee?

Beago aims to revolutionize search by providing a single, correct answer to user queries, aligning with Larry Page's vision of the ultimate search engine. It focuses on maximizing factuality and speed, making it particularly suitable for mobile devices. Beago is designed to be fast, affordable, and highly accurate, offering a competitive alternative to traditional search engines.

How does Kai-Fu Lee compare the U.S. and China in terms of innovation and execution?

Kai-Fu Lee believes the U.S. leads in breakthrough innovations due to its strong university system, research labs, and culture of risk-taking. In contrast, China excels in execution, leveraging its entrepreneurial work ethic and ability to rapidly scale and refine products. He notes that Chinese entrepreneurs focus on building practical, user-friendly applications rather than pursuing academic accolades.

What advice does Kai-Fu Lee give to entrepreneurs starting AI companies?

Kai-Fu Lee advises AI entrepreneurs to carefully manage inference costs, as they can be prohibitively expensive. He suggests timing product launches to align with decreasing costs and avoiding over-reliance on modeling companies that may absorb their innovations. He also emphasizes the importance of building a moat around their apps, such as through brand loyalty, user data, or social graphs, to maintain long-term value.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode, Kai-Fu and Peter discuss 01.AI’s growth, Chinese entrepreneurship, and how open-source AI can impact the world.  

Recorded on Oct 19th, 2024

Views are my own thoughts; not Financial, Medical, or Legal Advice.

Kai-Fu Lee is the Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, a venture capital firm he founded in 2009 that manages over $2 billion in assets and focuses on fostering the next generation of Chinese high-tech companies. In 2023, Lee launched 01.AI, a startup that built AI applications tailored for China, including Wanzhi, a productivity assistant similar to Microsoft Office 365 Copilot. As a leading figure in artificial intelligence, Lee continues to shape the tech landscape in China, where he recently noted that Chinese AI models are only 6 to 9 months behind their U.S. counterparts. He has authored influential books such as AI Superpowers (2018) and AI 2041 (2021) and was named one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people in 2013. Earlier in his career, Lee held prominent positions in tech, including Vice President at Google, President of Google China (2005-2009), and Corporate Vice President at Microsoft (2000- 2005). He also founded and led Microsoft Research Asia from 1998 to 2000. Lee remains a highly respected thought leader in AI and continues to drive innovation in the field.

Beago: https://www.beago.ai/

01.AI: https://www.01.ai/

Kai-Fu’s X: https://x.com/kaifulee

Kai-Fu’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaifulee/

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