美国正在酝酿一场衰退
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美国正在酝酿一场衰退 本文来自虎岫庙头 APP 作者丁平 美股暴跌或许是特朗普逼迫美联储 尽快降息的又一手段 美东时间 2025 年 3 月 10 日 美国股市上演了惊心动魄的暴跌行情 纳斯达克指数单日重挫 4% 创下 2022 年 9 月以来最大单日跌幅

标普 500 指数下跌 2.7% 创下 2024 年 12 月 18 日以来最差单日表现 道琼斯指数则收跌 2.08% 科技股领跌 曾经的市场宠儿英伟达下跌 5.1%

The fall of the US economy is in a period of transition or penetration.

Trump's remarks were interpreted by the market as the U.S. economy may be facing serious difficulties, which caused investors to be concerned about the U.S. economy's hard path. Behind this fall, there is also a deeper fight between Trump and the United States. More and more market analysts began to suspect that the U.S. stock fell not by chance, but by Trump's government's hard work.

They tried to create economic panic, forcing the US dollar to fall quickly. Why does Trump so eagerly hope that the US dollar will fall? The main reason comes from two aspects. One is that the current debt situation in the United States has indeed reached a warning level. The US national debt has already broken $360 million. According to the analysis of Lehman Brothers trader Larry McTona, if the current 4.5% interest rate level is up to 2026,

美国的债务利息支出就可能飙升至 1.2 万亿至 1.3 万亿美元,超过国防开支,财政赤字不堪重负。

特朗普政府为了削减利息支出 不惜裁员 冻结基建项目 甚至计划开展借新还旧的债务置换 麦克唐纳估算 如果美联储降息 100 个基点 美国将节约 4000 亿美元的利息支出 这将为政府发债腾挪空间 二是 特朗普希望通过低利率环境 促进美国制造业回流 解决工业空心化问题

特朗普在 2024 年 11 月 凭借制造业复兴 关税保护 美国等口号赢得大选 但实际上 相关政策实施的效果并不理想 为迫使美联储尽快降息 特朗普曾多次采取公开批评 和政策施压等手段 但面对特朗普的步步紧逼 美联储并未妥协 而美联储的政策实施

In 2024, after a total of 100 points in the West, the United Nations stepped down the brake. In January 2025, the U.S. President of the United Nations, Powell, said he was not in a hurry to adjust his policy stance. By March 7, Powell once again said that he would be patient and emphasize the current U.S. economic fundamental fundamental, the balance of the employment market, and the inflation, although it has not reached 2% of its goal, but there is no risk of losing control. No need to adjust the interest rate. This statement seems to be a signal that the United Nations refuses to political kidnapping.

In this context, Trump has increased his pressure, started to use a set of high-tax policies, demanding to investigate the U.S. gold account, support the government efficiency committee of the Moscow leadership, and other policies. In addition, the recent softening of U.S. non-farm data is still stirring the market sentiment, and the U.S. stock price fell, which naturally became part of the Trump and the US-U.S. trade.

Larry McDonald, a former Lehman Brothers trader, recently analyzed that the Trump administration is deliberately creating a economic downturn in order to force the U.S. Treasury to lower its interest rates and reduce its spending on the U.S. government. This strategy is also seen as an economic gamble. Trump hopes to break the monetary policy barrier through short-term economic pain and pave the way for long-term health growth.

Trump seems to be trying to find a balance between financial stimulus and debt management to avoid the setback of the Hufa era and closer to the path of the Roosevelt era. The economic crisis of the 30s has left a lesson. Compared to the free control of the market at a time of crisis, the coordination of monetary policy and financial policy is more important.

But this choice is not without risks. The independence of the US Fed may improve the long-term expectation of inflation, which is not conducive to the currency position of the US dollar. By financial suppression, it can reduce the actual debt burden, and it may also trigger global capital market fluctuations and accelerate the US dollarization process.

尽管美国市场的恐慌情绪持续蔓延 鲍威尔却临危不乱 这背后的原因其实也不难理解 美联储必须保持独立性 其决策主要依赖经济数据和 2%的目标通胀预期 而非政治压力 当前美国的通胀水平仍高于目标水平 且存在进一步升温的可能 在经历了 2023 年下半年至 2024 年的持续下行后 美国通胀在 2025 年初出现了反弹的迹象

According to the US Labor Department data, in January 2025, the US consumer price index rose by 3.0%, 2.9% higher than expected. This is also the fourth consecutive month of rebound, seven months in a row. The US CPI index is back to the 30s. In this key turning point, Powell emphasized that Trump's tariffs policy is especially worrisome. The policy may increase the price of some goods, which makes the United Nations' efforts to fight inflation more complicated.

For example, high tariffs will increase US import costs, increase commodity prices, and lead to cost increases in manufacturing companies. Especially companies that rely on the Chinese supply chain, they may be difficult to find substitutes of the same cost in the short term.

In addition, tariffs may also trigger the countermeasures of other countries. For example, Canada may charge tariffs on American products, and Mexico may suspend cooperation with American car parts. These may further increase US inflation pressure. History has proven that similar tariffs will indeed increase the price of goods. In February 2018, Trump charged a 20% tariff on imported washing machines. In the following months, the price of washing machines rose by about 18.2%, almost the same as the tariff.

The Morgan Stanley Research Department recently released a report that the US inflation rate in 2025 is expected to rise to 2.5%, higher than last year's 12-month 2.3% forecast. More pessimistic is that Michigan University consumers' survey data shows that the US inflation rate in the next 12 months will rise to 4.3%, which is the highest long-term expectation of nearly 30 years, up to 3.5%.

如果通胀持续升温 降息窗口就会被彻底旱死 实际上美联储认为 如果在此时过早转向宽松政策 美国很有可能重演 20 世纪 70 年代的滞胀 当年对通胀的错误理解 以及过早放松的货币政策 最终迫使美联储实施了更为激进的紧缩政策 不仅无法控制通胀 反而会对经济造成更大的伤害

更为关键的是美联储对美国经济的态度并不悲观 鲍威尔认为美国经济整体保持良好状态 货币政策没有必要过度宽松 尽管 2025 年 2 月的失业率上升至 4.1% 为近三个月以来的最高水平 并引发了市场对于美国经济减速的担忧 鲍威尔依然认为这种降温是可预见的 并且在某种程度上是美联储抑制通胀战略的预期结果

美联储更倾向于继续维持稳健的政策 而非因市场的短期波动做出过激反应 2025 年 2 月的非农就业报告显示 美国增加了超过 15 万个就业岗位 虽然低于预期 但依然表明就业市场存在适度增长

This data supports Powell's judgment that the current economic growth is stable. In the past, in the face of a market crash, the US and the United States would usually take measures to quickly stabilize the market mood. Now, he has taken a more cautious attitude and chose to wait and see in the market fluctuations. Now the position of the US and the United States and Trump has formed a clear contrast. The market generally believes that the US stock crash is due to the growing concern about the US economy's decline.

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In fact, the tension between Trump and Powell has been around for a long time. The core difference is mainly the independence of monetary policy and the United States. Trump believes that the president should have the right to speak on monetary policy and interest rates. And Powell insists on the independence of the United States. He believes that the central bank that is not directly intervened by the White House has a great advantage over the U.S. economy. At present, the two are not giving up. It's like playing a game of who's first to blink. However, the end of this pull-out war is affected by the following three changes.

首先是非农数据走向 如果未来几个月内通胀持续回落 且失业率突破 4.5% 美联储可能会被迫降息 但如果经济数据强劲 特朗普将面临股市崩盘的风险 他将不得不接受美联储的货币政策方向

The second is the political bargaining chip exchange. Trump will adjust the tariffs, such as delaying the exchange of US-LNU compromise with Canada's tax. But Powell still needs to balance the sound of the British side. Finally, it is the point of the market sentiment. The U.S. market has set a 75-point drop in 2025. If the U.S. and the United Nations insist on not moving, it may trigger a situation of double-debt.

In this situation, Powell may make a compromise or at least take some measures to calm the market. If Powell decides to take a step forward under continued pressure, this will bring new dynamics to global monetary policy and provide more operating space for China's monetary policy. And for the A-currency, it is bound to be greater than B. Unfortunately, the US-currency is difficult to say who will blink first. For the United States, the blood-sucking effect of the US debt of 360 million is a systemic threat.

But Trump's priority is still to consolidate political power. Its strategy is to create a crisis first and then solve the crisis. Once the US-China alliance is forced to open a large-scale recession after creating market panic, the economy is looking forward to recovery. Trump will make its successful economic policy for the mid-term election in 2026.

但这样的策略可能带来更严重的长期风险 尤其是美国债务问题可能加剧 最终形成为保选举牺牲经济的恶性循环 美国经济的疲软 特朗普政策的反复无常 贸易战的不确定性 以及由马斯克推动的政府开支削减 都在不断打击市场信心

美股的利害主义逐渐弱化,资金正在从高估值的美股流向相对受低估的市场,如中国等新兴市场。 美股的这次暴跌可不是一次普通的市场调整,它更像特朗普 2025 年 1 月上任后的股市大考。

The Nasdaq index has dropped by 11% since its launch. When it first started, the market was optimistic about Trump's policy, expecting his economic stimulus and reform to drive the stock market to fall. However, the Trump redline, which has caused infinite rushes by investors, has now become a Trump stock disaster, which has made people's eyes fall. Anyway, this stock market crash has already sent investors a clear warning signal.

特朗普政府的政策不確定性和美聯儲的政策調整之間,市場將經歷一段動盪期。 投資者需要密切關注經濟數據和政策信號,做好風險管理,適應這場特朗普與美聯儲的博弈帶來的市場波動。