Step aside, COP29. How Brazil is looking to supercharge COP30
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I'm in Baku, yes, still in Baku for COP29. It's week two, which means the biggest heads of state have gone home, as have many climate celebrities like Al Gore and Theresa May. Now negotiators are getting down to business. We're still days away from knowing what agreement, if any, might be reached. And Zero will come to you with how it all went down next week.

In the meantime, there are already questions about what the next COP might look like. And for good reasons. As we explored in a previous episode, the small state of Azerbaijan has had its hands full in hosting 50,000 delegates and advocates who arrived in Baku from around the world. Next year, Brazil will play host. But not in Rio or in Sao Paulo. Instead, the conference is set to be in the city of Belém, the gateway to the Amazon.

A beautiful coastal city that might not have the infrastructure to host 50,000 people. But Brazil has been trying to position itself as a leader on climate. And it wants people who come to COP30 to realize what's on the line. But Brazil is also growing its oil and gas production. And quickly. Reaching levels that match the United Arab Emirates. So I was eager to catch up with Andre Correa do Lago,

Brazil's Secretary for Climate, Energy and the Environment. He's rumored to be the next COP president, something he wouldn't confirm on the record, but he wasn't shy in answering just how much Brazil has to do to make COP 30 a success, from challenging logistics to fracturing geopolitics. And what COP 29 must get right to give Brazil a better footing.

Andre, welcome to the show. Hello, it's lovely to be here. Now, tell us what Brazil is hoping to get out of COP29, specifically. Yeah, look, you know that one of the basic principles of Brazil foreign policy is to strengthen multilateralism.

So we want, obviously, COP29 to be very successful. We believe in UNFCCC, we believe in the Paris Accord, and we have to show the world that this is the right way of doing things.

And at COP29 there are going to be two things that need to be worked on. One, it seems, has already been worked on, which is Article 6. Are you happy with the Article 6 outcome? I think that to have an outcome is already a very good news. I like quite a lot the solution, but now we have to transform it into something practical because the problem is that we've been thinking about that for nine years and we saw that in general

Carbon markets and everything else have been very complicated in recent years And I think that this decision will be extremely important to put some order into that We think that this is a very important step so you know that among the things that were approved are possibility of old credits being grandfathered into the article 6 Program and they could be on sale as soon as January 1 2025 and

And many of those old credits, vast majority of them are renewable energy credits, which many experts have said are junk and really should not have been allowed to grandfather into a

new market that is hoping to be quite credible so that it can sustain and it can grow. Are you not worried about the credibility of the old offsets? Look, we need to have environmental integrity in that operation or we're going to destroy the already battered carbon market.

Carbon markets can be, I think, can be amazing. But it's true that these years have been very confusing. So we have to analyze that. And somehow, you know, in a negotiation for good things to pass, sometimes you need other things also to pass. So let's see how we can manage that. We are very concerned with the forestry credits.

because we believe that they are the most important credits possible because, as we know, restoration of forests are probably today the most science-supported form of sink that you can create. And these credits, for instance, have been very much discredited. I'm sorry for using the word. And this is absurd because if you believe in urgency credits,

to fight climate change. You need to do the best possible things as soon as possible. It's useless also to try to do the perfect system if we know that we have very few years ahead of us. So let's try to be ambitious and at the same time to be practical.

And not to be unhappy in three years when we discovered that we could have done many things. Some of them may fail, some of them may not have environmental integrity. But let's concentrate on the majority, try to have the overwhelming majority of what we do with environmental integrity. The second thing on the agenda is the new quantified goal on climate finance.

And that is crucial for developing countries like Brazil, like India, but so many other developing countries to step up their climate actions. And without a good outcome on a larger amount of money supporting the action of developing countries, you're not likely to get results.

very ambitious targets set under the nationally determined contributions and that will have so many downstream impacts. It'll affect COP 30, which is going to come to Brazil. So on NCQG, where do you think things stand right now and how much of an ambitious deal could we get? We're not in the right direction. That I think is quite clear. And I think that we have to understand that the convention

Although we are all developing countries under a certain category in the Convention, but the truth is that

You have some very low-income countries that really need full support, that it's even absurd to think that they have to mitigate when they are absolutely not responsible for emissions and they have to take care of schools, they have to take care of health and other things, and their action is not going to have such a big impact because they emit very little. It's very unfair somehow.

And then you have the middle income developing countries like Brazil, like Indonesia, like India. And we can do a lot to mitigate climate change. And we are doing a lot to mitigate climate change. And the sums that we're talking about under the N-CQG is very far from what we know is reality. Most of the studies have been showing that we're going to need trillions.

And we're talking about some hundred billions that are very necessary. I'm not going to say they are not necessary, but they are not the full solution. And then you have to organize the finance in a way that it can fulfill the needs of the lower income countries, which I think the NCQG can deal with that.

But we need much more money for these middle-income countries to do what they need to do. And this is not going to come in the NCCG. I don't see the developed countries having the same sense of urgency that they proclaim today.

as climate change. Oh, climate change is very close, it's very close. But this urgency is not in the finances. You don't see the same sense of urgency. So what do countries like India, Indonesia and Brazil, for instance, do? Brazil worked on that very hard on the G20, in our presidency of the G20 now.

and how much we have to mainstream climate into investments in general and not in specific funds. We are huge economies, the developing countries that are in the G20, and we perfectly understand that it's not going to be grants, it's not going to be that that is going to solve our issue. The problem is that we pay too much for foreign capital.

We cannot afford to pay. It's completely absurd that we have to pay such a high price to have this capital. So we have to work on many fields. So the NCQG is one of them. It's extremely important. But we also have to be practical and think that we have very few years ahead of us. Yes. So if I am hearing you right, you're saying NCQG, the needs are clearly in the trillions, but there is...

very little possibility or political feasibility of the trillions being approved. But the hundreds of billions may get approved. And that means the gap has to be filled in other ways. And those other ways are what?

The other ways are the mainstream of the economy. Countries like Brazil, Indonesia or India, we are very investable countries. I mean, there are many things to be done in our countries and our economies are huge and our population is huge. And so we have to lower the cost of capital. This is, I think, will have an amazing impact. Then you have also to recognize that countries like ours, including China,

We've been doing so many things inside our country without foreign support. And this is never taken into consideration. For instance, fighting deforestation in Brazil, 90% of what we spend is from our budget, is not international support.

So this recognition of what we're doing and the importance that we invest in our own efforts to combat climate change is not taken into consideration. So there is this very strange idea of increasing the donor base, which is completely getting out of the main subject. The main subject is what are the developed countries going to provide for the developing countries under the rules of the Paris Accord, right?

Are there steps that can be taken or are being taken to lower the cost of capital coming into Brazil, India and Indonesia? We're trying in the G20. I think that it was quite a good progress because we put together for the first time in the G20, the ministers of finance and the central bankers.

talking together with their ministers of foreign affairs and ministers of climate. And it was quite surprising because even in the developed countries, they hardly knew each other. So I think this is a progress. But what really drives us is the sense of urgency. And the sense of urgency cannot only be in ambition. It has to be finance. It has to be action. Where is the next G20 happening?

in South Africa, so that's great.

But I hear that the South African Economy Ministry and the Finance Ministry do not get on with each other, so they might not do what you did so successfully under the Brazil G20. Is that right? I think that I have to tell you that the biggest differences between Finance Ministries and Climate Ministries that I saw in the G20 was in some European countries.

So do you think, given the tense negotiations, which is the case every COP, but especially when it comes to money and the sorts of money we are talking at COP29, do you think there will be a deal at the end? I do hope that because I hope that for two reasons. First, as a citizen of the planet, and second, because Brazil is going to preside the next COP. So we need a successful COP29. So between...

Now, and the next COP, Donald Trump is going to come to power. And he has said that he will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, which is something he did in his first term in 2017. Last time around, the impact wasn't very much because of rules. He only left in November 2020 and Jan 2021, Joe Biden...

join the U.S. into the Paris Agreement again. This time, he can have much greater impact because he will leave within a year and he could pull the U.S. out of the UN Climate Treaty altogether. So when you meet your U.S. counterparts right now who are from the Biden administration, do you take them seriously?

I think them very seriously because they are really serious negotiators. But we have to try to find a new way of dealing with the U.S. But we cannot think that the U.S. is just the government of the U.S. The U.S. is universities, scientists, states, cities...

And many of them, most of them, believe in climate change and believe that things have to be done. So if you just take California, it's one of the biggest economies in the world. So if you concentrate your efforts on the sectors of the U.S. that can contribute to this debate, it's already a lot. It's obvious that it would be much better to have the whole government together.

Now, what I also believe is that even the most anti-climate personality in America or whatever will rethink about it if he sees that he can have profits.

working with climate change. So see, for instance, Texas. Texas has become one of the states of the United States that uses most renewables with wind energy, with solar energy. Why? It's not an ideological decision like people say that California is. This was exclusively because of the cost, because it was a good business. So

For those who don't believe in those discussions, let's talk with the language of business. With others, let's talk with the appropriate language of each one. See, there is a deal at...

Yeah, I think

that it would be quite logical not to expect the U.S. to be one of the main funders of the NCCG. Even now? So going into the deal, you don't think that'll happen? Yes, because even if you're negotiating with the Biden administration, the truth is that the signs that President Trump has already shown are very clear.

And so if what happens at the NCCG and the US is backtracking from its commitments shows up at COP 30, how are you going to make sure COP 30 is a success? Because the NCCG will be a challenge. Not enough countries will have submitted ambitious NDCs. They will look at the US, the world's largest historical emitter and say,

They're out. Why should we contribute? And you get into a new, bigger fight when you come to COP30. So what are you doing now to avoid that? Well, I think we cannot avoid that. We have to deal with that. And so we'll have to find some intelligent answers to those intelligent questions. But that is reality. We have to face reality like climate change, if you believe in it. So it's a big challenge. There is no doubt about it.

After the break, more from my conversation with Brazilian Secretary for Climate Energy and the Environment, André Correia do Lago. By the way, if you've been enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It helps other listeners find the show.

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Now, COP30 is currently scheduled to happen in Belem.

We just got attendance figures today and there are expecting 52,000 people coming to this COP. Now this is the capital of a country. It's a small country but it's the capital of a country and you're able to manage that crowd. My understanding is Bellum is a really good place to go to just understand what the Amazon is but it's not got the capacity to host 50,000 people.

let alone 80,000 people which showed up in Dubai. So what is the plan currently for COP 30 in Brazil, in Belem? The plan is to have a COP that is proportional to what the city can offer, but also a COP that will leave a very positive legacy to the city.

So we cannot build pharaonic things just for a COP. If we are going to improve the city for the COP, it's to improve the city itself, and there will be a legacy for the population. Now, we're going to have to do it differently, obviously very differently than Dubai was or what Baku is offering. But you can be sure that we will be very transparent about what is possible to do.

have in Belém. We have a full team of the people that are organizing the Belém Co-op here, seeing all the challenges that we will have to face. But the symbolism of having it in the Amazon

And the fact that Brazil is a developing country with many success stories, but also with huge challenges, and the fact that Brazil assumes to do it in a complex place, I think it has a fantastic political power.

We are not trying to hide the problems we have. And as you know, deforestation is our main source of emissions. We have a very strange profile of emissions. So we are taking the world to the place where we have our biggest source of emissions.

And we're going to show to the world how complex the Amazon region is with the best food in Brazil on one side, the most beautiful natural place you can imagine, but a city that still has lots of very strong social challenges. So I think that

It is quite refreshing to have a country, obviously I'm suspicious because I'm Brazilian, but I'm quite proud of being a country that doesn't hide its problem. It's a country that is showing the world its problems and let's try to work on that. Everybody has its problems and we are showing ours very clearly to everybody. So how many people do you think Belém will be able to fit?

I think that the organizers are working on 50,000 people. They are? Yeah, they are working on 50,000. But President Lula wants very strong participation of civil society. So we'll have to measure how many people, I mean, because the negotiators, as you know, is something that doesn't move very much, is around 20,000 people. Then you have the UNFCCC staff is like 800 to 1,000 people.

So we're dealing with the realistic numbers, but President Lula doesn't want, you know, to let's have less people from civil society. No, we need lots of presence of civil society. Yeah. Now, Brazil produces more oil than the UAE does. And President Lula has asked...

Petrobras to produce even more oil. How is that going to play in your NDC? We have to deal with this very, very challenging reality is that last year Brazil's main export was oil.

So, from an economic point of view, this is obviously interpreted by most of the Brazilians as something that we didn't expect and this only happened because of the incredible technological progress of Petrobras that is looking for oil in places that are extremely complex and technologically difficult.

places to exploit oil. So there is a part of Brazil that is extremely proud of Petrobras to have found oil in such deep areas. And then on the other side, we all are conscious that we have to transition away from fossil fuels. So this is the big debate we're going to have in Brazil next year, because we have to arrive at COP 30.

lead by example as our Minister of the Environment Marina Silva always says. So over here you're hoping there will be a big financing push that will hopefully make it possible for countries to come with new ambitions in Belém at COP 30. What other metrics are you setting for success? First is that countries need to come up with new ambition

with goals set out to 2035 and ideally start to finally reduce emissions at pace as needed, what are the other priorities? I think that to try to make it as simple as possible, we feel that urgency has to be everywhere when we talk about climate change.

So this is progress in these debates that will make a huge difference. So it's not only the UNFCCC, it's not only the Paris Accord, it's the economy in general. It's the behavior of people that have to take into consideration the urgencies.

Economic theory, ministries of finance, ministries of transportation. I mean, it's not, that's the sense of the NDCs, is that the NDCs create a number that is an objective and each country is going to find its way to reach it, no?

And we have to do it together because as you are saying, if the richest country in the world is going to backtrack maybe on some of its commitments, why the others are going to follow? So we have to build something really strong in which the world is convinced of the urgency. How are we going to do that? This I cannot give you the answer now. So...

In a way, now COP30 becomes how to defend the climate consensus even as the US leaves the Paris Accord. Yeah, but remember that when we say the US is leaving, US scientists are not leaving, US business is not leaving. And we have to think that the symbolic...

billionaire that supports President Trump is Elon Musk. Elon Musk is the guy that made America fall in love with electric cars. So there are many dimensions in America. We cannot oversimplify what it is. And I mean, if the oil companies...

find a way of contributing to the transition away from fossil fuels, that would be super welcome. I mean, everybody has to come with

solutions in their own way, with reasonable costs and with reasonable social costs. Because we have seen in some countries that the fight against climate change has made some of the basic services more expensive. This is not the solution. You lose the support of the population for this fight. So I'm looking forward to the new Brazil climate plan. But given Petrobras' state-backed

Are we also going to see a new climate plan from your state-backed oil company? That's a good question. Let's talk to Petrobras together. Thank you for coming on the show. Thank you very much. Thank you for listening to Xero. And now for the sound of the week. This is the sound of cop. Every year, almost always, there is wooden flooring.

newly put to turn something into a cop venue and have thousands and thousands of people walk across it making this drumbeat of a noise. That's the sound of the footsteps inside the Baku Olympic Stadium, the drumbeat that dictates the pace of negotiations. If you liked this episode, please take a moment to rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Also check out Bloomberg Green's coverage of COP29. It's free to read.

Share this episode with a friend or with someone who is ready to plan a trip to Brazil in 2025. You can get in touch at zeropod at bloomberg.net. Zero's producer is Maithili Rao. Bloomberg's head of podcast is Sage Bauman and head of talk is Brendan Newnham. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly. Special thanks to Simone Iglesias, Siobhan Wagner, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples and Jessica Beck. I am Akshat Rati, back soon.