39. 对凯文·凯利的50问：垄断者与国界、大富翁与人生
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The facebook who will ever figured that out because they are too big, they they have too much money. They are going to be the ones that figured IT out apples are either they're too big as as I said before, the story is they always come from the outside.

Is technology bond by borders?

Well, that's a good question. It's not.

I actually have not seen those cars, but my theoretical prediction for many years was that I think when china finally makes a world class branded consumer product that the entire world wants is probably gonna an entry card. I advise Young people in myself never to have a billion dollars. You try everything you can. To never have a billion dollars die, because they will imprison you. IT will take over your life.

Hello, 大家好， 欢迎 收听 张小 珺 商业 访谈录， 我是 小俊。 这是 一档 描摹 我们 时代 的 商业 文化 和 新知 的 访谈 节目。 今天 的 嘉宾 很 特别是 凯文凯利。 凯文凯利 有 一把 标志性 的 落腮胡 子， 20岁出头， 这 把 胡子 就 跟着 他 从 美国 远赴 亚洲 游历。 他 到 过中国、 日本、 韩国， 也 到 过 印度、 尼泊尔、 阿富汗。 随后 这 把 胡子 跟着 他 回 了 美国， 安 坐在 自家 漏雨 的 后院 小 棚里 创作， 花了 五年， 写出 失控， 而后 参与 创立 了 连线 杂志。 再 之后 呢， 凯文凯利 意外 的 在 华 走红， 收获 了 名望 与 财富， 他 又 带着 这 把 大胡子 一次又一次 到访 中国。

这段话 是我 写 的 一篇 文章 的 开头， 文章 记录 了 最近 对于 凯文凯利 的 访谈。 虽然 大家 应该 对他 非常 的 熟悉， 但是 我 还是 要 介绍 一下 凯文凯利 是 美国 知名 杂志 连线 的 创始 主编， 著 有 失控 科技 想要 什么 必然 这 三本 被 认为是 凯文凯利 的 三部曲。 他 曾经 在 上世纪 90年代 预言 了 后来 互联网 的 走向， 因而 他 被 认为是 全球 科技界 的 预言家。 中文 读者 喜欢 称 他 为 K K， 他 很 有意思， 因为他 其实 在 中国 的 名望 是 大于 他在 美国 的 名望 的， 他在 中国 更 有名 一些。 最近 71岁 的 K K 带着 他的 新书 宝贵 的 人生 建议， 我希望 早点 知道 的 智慧 再次 来到 了 中国。 它的 行程 很 紧凑， 利用 间隙 我们 向 凯文凯利 提出了 50个问题， 范围 非常 之 广泛， 涵盖 了 寡头 平台、 网络 秩序、 人工智能、 科技 的 国界 和 人生 之问。 访谈 是用 英文 进行， 为了 减轻 大家 一部分 的 收听 压力， 我 把 这 集 播客 分成 了 六个 部分， 每个 部分 都 会有 一个 小的 主题， 同时 你可以 在 下方 链接 中 找到 中文 的 文字 版本。 好吧， enjoy.

And good morning, I, mr. Kelly. Good morning. The china reported for tens of news final you in the raining this day morning in shanghai. Well, at the beginning of this year, charge begins popularity. People predicted that journalist was on the fastest extinction. But for me personally, I think that notion was quite comical because i've come to realize that the interview process of regional is essentially keep you and interaction with tragic ity. I ask questions, wait for a answer.

And just like today, I ask my questions and wait for the person who is best effort in the future to provide me with the, well, i've noticed that you've been growing your beard since a very Young age, right? And still make tiny even as a transition from that degree. And eventually, White drives ation with keeping a bear. Do you see IT as a symbol .

of a whistle? So my beard is laziness 哦 O.

K.

I would have a full beard, but I found the master ash to be very irritating. So I save that, but I guess got lazy for shaving. And I didn't seem to be worthwhile when I was very Young and after while I just found a convenient so there's really no big statement, is no higher design principle .

other than laziness OK do you have any fish beard grooming tine.

i'm not very good with the creaming advice. sorry.

As a red tech Victory, we are going to hear insights in the current air era with luck, book the next five thousand days and will discuss the semantic. Are you surprised by how quickly this concept has become every ality with the emerges of charge vt, and what developments do and his pay us in this round?

Yeah I I would say that what we've seen with ChatGPT did not surprise me, but the the method that the technologies used to get there did surprise me. So what we have doesn't surprise me, but the fact that they came by using the large language model, that was very surprising because we would not have expected that to work. So overall, I, I, I, I, I felt that what we see with ChatGPT is what I expected to happen.

And I also think that we should not be over estimate how fast is gonna because I think it's not all the way where we want. We want other things. We want to be more powerful and stuff.

And I think that's onna take a long time. I think people going to be surprised about how wrong IT takes to keep making improvements. People think, well, now we have chat and then tomorrow or next year, we're gonna A I everywhere and being our lives and I think going to take a longer time than people think.

And that's because, as you know, you're saying you're using IT, but you can see is not going to replace you. And yeah, you can just take an A I and replace a person with A I. You need to have whole system.

You need to have need to change the organization, you need to change the infrastructure. So that takes time. And so I think chat is in some ways over high, although A I is underhand.

嗯， in your perspective, could OpenAI become the dominant force in the air? Could they become the next type giant or the next big platform company? There are different opinions have heard, in fact, some suggesting OpenAI q support google and potentially held a market value times greater, while others believe OpenAI will be a pioneer in the air, are focusing more on experiment and not becoming a huge business CoOperation. What's your take on?

This is a really good question. And for many years, I have a theory about tech development and dominance. And so the idea is that the monos, that the companies have a very short lift.

So for a very long time there was this. IBM was the only computer of the people would buy, and hundreds of companies competed against IBM to try to sell computers. But not never worked.

You couldn't. They were. They had monopoly, and then microsoft came along.

But microsoft wasn't trying to sell computers. They were selling software. And they are the ones who displaced IBM.

If you try to make computers, you couldn't win. But they came out from the outside selling software. And the microsoft became a dominant player.

Microsoft made A O, S. Operating system software. And many, many companies tried to compete against microsoft.

None of the world google came along. They then try to make an O, S. They made a search different, then they became the dominant.

And many people try to make a searching company. They couldn't display google, what display school was like. Facebook, facebook came on.

There was not a search company. IT was social media. Many, many, many companies try to make social media. They didn't work either.

And so now right now, we have open an eye there, A I company, and they're going to become the dominant or something like them. You can become the commitment company, displacing google and facebook and everybody else. So is coming from outside always. And the question is whether OpenAI is the company that displaces google and um in facebook and and we chat, we don't know, but i'm really convinced that is gonna an A I company that will become the next big monody.

You are not sure why there is OpenAI not well .

because I could be entitied. IT could be the company that actually makes the AI platform, which is what an video is doing. So I think there maybe like a race between OpenAI and edit or maybe a third one because you know google was not the first IT was like the thirty second and amazon wasn't the first online company. Facebook wasn't the first .

mini company. Become the big gest.

Well, because Better, it's execution. okay? It's not just the idea, it's it's the execution. Google they did the search Better.

IT was ten times Better than out of these the facebook as you know, facebook they did a Better so um the question they were so early in the eyes can someone else do uh why is language, music and to do IT? But the OpenAIr i s v ery p ossible b ut i t's s o e arly t o t ell. But I am convinced that is gonna an A I company that is going to become the next big major dominant .

domine company.

Yes, platform and maybe A R OpenAI, you can tell you. okay.

What are your thoughts on sam out then? Have you have any interaction with? Do you believe he has the potential to become a you like stick jobs or yellow mask?

Yes, actually he just testify the congress yesterday in U. S. congress. Sam is very modest. He's not as crazy as either Steve job you like masks, so he probably won't become as big.

You have to be slightly crazy yeah to really become that um and so he's not that crazy. So I don't think he's gone to have the same stature as jobs. He's a little bit like just basis .

maybe oh why what I mean.

jeff is not crazy. He's big, he's successful, but you don't see him in the new lot, right? So sam is a little bit like that.

He is very, very sharp, very wise. Even see, like jobs was not wise. Your line is not wise, just bases is wise. And I think sam is wise.

嗯。

How can we head up to the mirror world? You've disgust. I mean, representation of a real gitl. What the facts will oculus in the maybe .

next the mr. world? So the mirror world, just to be clear, we're talking about face because of the metaverse, which is this world that you can see a digital overly on top of the actual world, the convergence of the real world, and the digital together into one view.

IT needs really good, light, way, long, lasting, high, do a glasses, smart classes. And we don't have this still the apple vision is a good for step, but is not even at we're not yet the point of a smart phone yet. And cell phones were around for dozens of years and then we have clip phones and they didn't really make the impact until we went to the smart phone.

So foot phones to smart phones, we're still on the foot phone era of the mural world. We don't have the right technology still still waiting for a smart phone, which the apple vision is not the smart phone for that. Yeah 就 we can't really go very far into making the mirror world until we have the smart family equally。 Um we don't have that again.

And you mentioned that after first two platforms, there will be a third major platform. I'm curious when you made the generate A I large model were not as prominent as there today. Do you any insights or the Price stores on the prediction regarding the three major platform? I mean, you said the first one being internet gentis information, yes. And the second one being in .

media d time people.

yeah, yeah. Maybe the third platform is set to d time.

Everything, yes, yes, oh, yes. 我， in order to do tize everything else, need A, I not touch D, P, I don't know me. But you need A, I to be able to comprehend, experimentally, understand the world.

So right now you would have to scan this room, and IT would know that that's a screen is connected to the internet, and they would know that chair. And we understand that these bottles came from the store nearby. And they would understand IT and be able to remember that, that we know index everything.

So that's that's a very sophisticated kind of A I that we don't have yet they can do. But when we can do that, then we put on our glasses and IT would be scanning everything that I see and IT would be understanding IT. And that's when this third thing starts. And so we need a glass glasses and we need a Better A I before that could happen.

Why we need classes?

Well, because who's gonna and the world? That's a big job. Who going to pay for that? Nobody's gonna for that. The only way that happens is we, the users skin IT, we're going to wear IT. We're going to walk around and i'm going the the person who's going to skin the room would be me.

I'm going to IT for free because order to see things, I have to scan them first to the way the vrar the mr. World is IT, let's say that you are appearing actually in the mirror. You here, you are back in beijing, and you have avatar on the seat.

So I have A F, T. Seat here. There's a seat. I mean, someone else. yeah. And and I look over here and they are virtual person. Well, the the way that that works is that the computer, the system has to know where i'm looking as to understand.

As I look down to the angle right here, IT is i'm looking at and IT knows that because the glasses have to scan, they have to scan the room in order to present the image. So they're scanning all the time. So using the A R requires you to be scanning everything.

So that was gonna. And the world is, is these glasses that every millions of people wearing. This is what's going to scan the world. And until they have them, the world doesn't get scanned.

How do you view facebook?

Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah. might.

Very space. Why do you think you may not have the potential to become like the third major?

They haven't made the smart .

life associate. okay.

They tried with quest. They just don't have IT. They haven't made the smart phone. They have a foot phone that has only a foot phone version is not good enough yet.

yes. Do you believe the third major platform will emerge from the business transition of traditional giants like facebook gal or imaging edge origin OK? So so I think .

is very unlikely that facebook will ever figured that out because there too big, they have too much money there. They're not going to be the ones to figure out out apples, not either OK. Yeah, they are too big.

As as I said before， the story is they always come from the outside. It's gonna an outside a new company and started up because they don't have enough money. If you have too much money than you try to buy solutions, if you have no money, you have to invent, you have to be very ingenuous.

You have to try things. See, apple cannot afford to do things and lessons. A big pay off in the beginning, though, this is not going to be a big pay off, can be very expensive.

The people who make IT in the beginning or not going to make very much money. They are gonna SE money for a long time. Apple cannot afford to do that.

They have the money that they just they cannot afford to lose a lot, a lot of money. They have to do something where they know that they're going be making money. So it's always going to be a smart up, started up who has nothing to lose.

They have very little with the world to want profit margins. They are working on the outside. They can cater to a very small.

They don't need that. So everybody can sell thousand people. Apple can afford to do IT just a thousand people. They have to do much bigger scale. So therefore, they're incapable of doing IT.

If the third major platform emerges, who is most likely to be his enemy and in competitor be a lot of if.

if, if something starts to work, since something starts to work to be lot of competitors, this is like a lot language moles. Right in the beginning, there was open the air. There was nobody else.

They had no competitors. Now they have lots of competitors, we think when in here. So in the beginning, the smart, they probably be very few people making a smart class. But if IT starts to work, then of .

competitors in the face of this new wave of technology, I an ai, which giant american company like google, map, amazon, apple and tesla do you expect to have a stronger advantage?

They don't have an advantage. The in comments don't have an advantage. These are can go away.

They just are, can be dominant MC IBM. Still a crowd. yeah.

They just not dominant.

Microsoft still around. It's not dominate, then are going to go away. We can have a business is and other things.

they are just not onna be the manipulate. You are an old friend of chinese type industry. You've made many predictions about american giants.

And so how do you view to the amErica they can be?

How do you view the existing chinese giants like tension?

Alia A, I think the same thing. I think in the next wave that they will not be dominant.

Will the A I access bate the monopoly status of large corporations?

Well, there will be some monopoly in A I is what I was saying. Yes, there definitely will be some monopoly in A I. Well know they'll be a new monos. The current monopoles won't be important as much as the newman oly from A S.

Is technology bound by orders?

Well, that's a good question. It's not bound by borders. And that part of the problem is that they still believe in borders.

And um there's a lot of difficulty because countries like the U. S. Or china believe in the power of orders. And I think we're seeing that the technology doesn't want to respect borders. And so it's .

really difficult. So why do american impose cheap restrictions to block cheap exports?

Yeah, I think there is short term gains and long term is very detrimentally to every all countries. I think opening trade, this is Better overall for everybody. So I think it's short term thinking. So it's makes short term benefits, but long term is a disadventure ge because .

chinese companies are currently facing lots of difficulties globally. So um how do you percent eive these chAllenges? And what advice would you like to give those entrepreneur?

S boy, I don't know um I don't know what I mean, I have I don't know expert on conditions are right now in terms of like raise ing money and I have no idea about that in in china. I wish I could be more helpful to the entire, I do not know enough.

will china become the worlds leading tax superpower in which tax doctors does U. S. Hold a clear advantage? And english tax star.

it's very, very obvious that the us. Has a current lead in software in china is is really Better in hardware in china course, taiwan is there. They're making the chips.

So I would say asia maybe asia is really good hardware and and the the western speed and software. And so they may not last forever, but for now, that seems to be the the case. And there's is the way these works that are very network.

So it's not just you have one company or big company is you have thousands of supporting networks that support the ecosystem around hardware versus ecosystem around software. So so IT takes a long time to change that. So I would say, you know, for five years, maybe a decade, that's probably gonna be true.

The asia has a great ecosystem for hardware and machines. Was the west U. S. Particular has a really good ecosystem for software.

China has compound new energy electronic of vehicles like byd, new expand auto. How do you view the chinese new energy vehicle industries and its future?

I actually have not seen those cars, but my theoretical prediction for many years was that I think when china finally makes a world class branded consumer product that the entire world wants is probably gone to be electric car. So I have no idea about these companies OK. But in general, I think china is capable of making a world class consumer product that is incredibly designed, incredibly affordable, the best in the world, and that's likely to be electric car, maybe in self driving car.

How long do you think you will take for electric vehicles to replace traditional car?

What they are faster than you, faster than people think is what I would say. Yeah, so it's happening very fast. And that just because electric cars are just Better all around in every way, they are Better than gasoline cars.

So if you want a good car, you're going to be buying electric cars. If you want a great car, you're gna be buying electric car. They're just superior in every way, and they will take some time, but it's happening faster than people think.

Do you believe that tech industries in china and the U. S. Will become more similar overtime? Or do you see them hiding in highly different direction? Well.

in a certain sense is to their benefits, not to to their benefits to be different from each other. But we do see convergence on many things globally. There is a global culture.

I look around here, if I take a picture of this office, other than the language, I don't know if I can tell the difference about where I was in the world. So the Young people are basically living. They have very similar convergence on what the office look like, what their homes look like, how they dress.

And so at one level, there is a difference convergence around the world. Where is the same? But that's not the only thing about culture.

There could be things about your relationships and how you work and and how information flows that could be different and might want to be different depending what industry you're in. So I would could expect differences to Operate at the kind of a higher level of the intangible. But the Angel world may be very common and very shared .

with the wave of deglaze ation. How do you think they will impact the world of time?

I don't. Oh, not at all. Well, there is an attempt to.

There is some interest in the decoupling. The reality is, is that it's impossible. So I don't think it's going to happen.

There is a question about A I safety where we become pets of A I elon mask. One said, one biggest throw to survival map just be A I. They could passes and trade us like a pet, he added. I don't like the idea of being someone's podcast.

What's your opinion this? I think it's you can never say impossible, but I think it's very, very, very unlikely OK. And I just said one reason is because it's not accelerating. Therefore, we have time to if IT begins to treat us like pets, we can stop IT. That's one one answer.

I think, elan, and what I call the the dumas, the AI rumors, think they over estimate the power of intelligence, okay? They think that a really smart thing can accomplish things in the real world, can change the real world. But but what would we know is that is not the smiles person that makes the most change.

You need to have other qualities besides intelligence to have effect on the world. And sometimes the most productive people are not the smartest people. Jeff bases is not the smartest person, but he had other qualities that you need to make things happen if you take.

And instead, and you take a tiger and put them in a cage, who wins? Who lives the smartest person? Why does the einstein live in? The tiger die if smart ist is trumps, everything doesn't.

So you need more things in the real world for something to happen than just I Q and elon anders think that will you have IQ IT can be so smart. Just is the most powerful thing. And that's this completely nuisance, very tail.

You've asks, what does technology want? So what does A I want, in what ways does A I desires differ from the broadcast of technology in general?

I I don't think necessary, wants something different than technology in general. He wants to technologies want to increase choices when I have more choices. So one of the things we're going to see is many, many different different kinds of their ice, many varieties, many specialties, many different.

We're going to educate the air with different countries schools so they will see diversity. IT wants to be diverse, wants to have more choices. IT will also um continue to to learn and to generate even more possibilities.

So things that favor new ways of doing things are the way the AI will tend to go rather than replicating what we know how to do. So most of the things is not going IT will help replace things that we know how to do. But more importantly, they will give us new things to do. So be new jobs. That's what is going to be really shine is making up whole new kinds of jobs we don't even have.

If knowledge accumulation determines th Epace o f h umans s ocietal d evelopment, that is why we have exponential laws like world law and my s law. What will drive our pace of advancement when A I introduce new avenues of knowledge accusation?

I think that, I think that's a good insight. I think A, I might generate some new growth loss like my caps or builders or more law. Um I don't know what they are um but but I think you're right.

I think there could be some new accelerating dynamics from A I that would that would suggest things were getting Better. But but let me say one thing, so far so far, we do not see expenditure growth in intelligence as the fear of people like you on mask others said, the air will expansion grow in power. But we don't see that actually that the growth in, in, in power is very, very slow.

We see expenditure growth in the amount of computation that you need to make IT. So I kind of like the opposite, where you have exponential input of the resources and you have only a linear geometric increase in the intelligence. So we don't see an exponential growth in the intelligence right now, which is one reason why you don't have .

to worry about IT very much. So how will development of future technology .

differ from the presence of A I? We all a an in technology. SHE enables other technologies to accelerate.

It's accelerating. An an example right now is in pharmaceuticals. Um A I has basically solved the protein folding problem.

So we're now using A I to search through um the space of possible molecules to make into drugs. So drug discovery drug new drugs are being facilitated by A I so A I can speed up biotech. That's an example.

And what are you insights on A S business model?

So so there is no A I, there's only A I sparrow. There's many, many A S and all their own different business model to what's the business models pool for A S poorly. There are a lot of business models. It's not just one A, I, just not just one business model.

I reasoned, spoke with A C, O, F, A chinese A, I company banked by microsoft. And he made a very interesting point. He said, a accurate is immense value, and we might perceive dead as its value, but is not the reality.

Its value is determined by how much revenue is generated. As an example is science time is a chinese air company. Science time specializes in facial recognition, is not they've had to diversify into hardware, even twenty eight, two thousand RMB A A revenue.

So there you go. So there's a couple things like I was saying before is going to be OpenAI, but that could be in video. And video is hardware.

So you have to have both. That's why they're saying you can just have software of A I. You have to have the platform as well. So the chips matter. That's why NVIDIA might be more important than open a but secondly, also what I was saying before is that this can take a long time for the productivity in the economic benefits of ai to become apparent. It's not gonna happen.

It's going to take a long time because of what you just said, because they're not facial recognition, maybe ten years before they pay off because you can't just replace things with the new stuff. You actually have to change everything around. These are infrastructure. These take a lot of time. People over estimate how fast A I will come in is going to take years a decade, say that again.

it's going take a decade. With the increasing specialization of entrepreneur s and professionals in the air ara character's by strong academic backgrounds and advanced degrees, will technology increasingly become a game for a select few, at least? no. How can ordinary individuals become involved in the four front with the A, I technology?

So there's lots of things to say about that. What we ve seen in terms of everyday people and everyday use is that so far, the people who benefit most from things like ChatGPT or average coders, average writers, they they get the most from this new technology that makes the most difference to them, rather than to say the best one percent programmes chat did does not help their productivity or what they can do.

But is the average person who is most benefit from these a so far that's the evidence. The second thing is, is that um the people who invent, we've invented like large language models, have no idea what they can do. They don't know.

They're no idea what they could do. And there are some people, regular people there, not A I experts, who have decided to use these tools every day for four hours a day, expLoring what they could do. And they become the experts.

So anybody here, anybody china, could take the new buy to chat and decide to find out what they could do and not do, and they will suddenly become the expert. They will be the elite. So the wonderful thing about these new frontiers is that they're very democratizing because they suddenly, anybody once to, can become the expert, the elite, with no money. So that's the benefit of having this constant frontiers opening up, is that IT doesn't matter what education have, because nobody has a course, nobody has a degree in IT, there are no experts. And you can become the expert, you yourself, you to become the expert on by AI very, very easily if you wanted to.

How many times have you visited china and what differences have you notice comparing of previous visit?

Well, I visit dozens of times. I haven't been here in four years, and unfortunately, I haven't been out this office, so I don't know was changed in the last four years.

What about .

american people? 嗯， it's funny about american people. I think they may, on average, below pessimistic, although the actual state has improved, americans like to complain even though they are, say, maybe a little Better off, a little bit wealthier, a little bit Better.

The concerned about the future of the country because of the polarization. So people really worried about the polarization. But to two, the splitting between the right and left, they're very concerned about that.

So that's what they're worried about, is whether there can be like a vision or confront or something because of that division. So that's what they are mostly concerned about. They don't really care about much outside of of the world, and they're concerned about the the splitting of the country.

Your first job was a freeLance photographer, right? I'm curious if you were to capture a snapshot of china from a photographers active. So what would .

that image look like? Yeah, probably burn at night.

why?

Well, it's like the future. I think that to me, as china is very ambitious, if I had to make a branding, strategic branding consultation for china, I would say china were not done yet. It's A A construction.

It's just like we're making IT up. We're making a new china where we're not finished. We're just started to make a new china. And so that to me is that the image of .

in a new school, ask them advice for living the with them. I wish I know earlier you mention that live goals should transact personal achievements and should strive for something greater than one self. What's you're going in?

Good question I make in life is to be a lifelong learner. There will always be learning new things, to be changing my mind and to increase the options of everybody world, to give everybody, to give the tools and equipment that would help everybody in the world to find their their best self. That's what i'm working towards, is trying to spread tools. And here's my advice to help people become the best version .

of themselves. And also, you know that doing things that no one can fully comprehend can you create rewards? And, if possible, to engaging diverse that has no naming. And was this mindset when you started expLoring the path of tech writing?

No, I was not I did not know that that's again, that's advice I wish I had known earlier. I think I arrived that that idea eventually. I mean, actually I did IT, but I wasn't conscious about IT, which was to be working where there was no name because when we were started wired, there was no name for what I was that we were doing.

People were very confused because we weren't writing about technology really. We were writing about the culture of technology, which was nobody also was doing that. The name for that there no, there was no place to put the magazine.

They did know where to put IT. what? What is this? So I did not know at that time that's what I was doing, but that's what I was doing. And so I wish I known that earlier, and which is that, you know, my vice to you would be to try and work in a place where people don't have a name for what IT is you do, where you have to explain to your mother for a half an hour to explain what a visit you're really doing. That's good.

And also, you mentioned that most overnight success require at least five years of hard work. And in fact, any significant success follows this pattern. Can you talk about the five years you quietly work hard to achieve success? What was U. S. Of mine at a time?

I worked for five years control, yeah, that took five years to write. yeah.

And I decided to write this book.

IT was a book I wanted to read. The same thing with wired magazine was a magazine I wanted to read. So there was no book on this idea I wanted to read IT.

So the only way to read IT was be the writing. I was interested in this idea of the conversion of biology and machines, the mechanical and and how was coming to artificial life, and in the later artificial intelligence. And there wasn't artificial intelligence at that time.

So I read about artificial life, and I think that, again, there was a way I write now to find out what i'm thinking. I don't know what i'm thinking until I try and write IT. I don't have ideas until I try to write them. So is a way to give me ideas.

You've mention that the key to predicting the future is listening to china logy. Uh, i'm curious about the inspiration behind this approach IT IT seems somewhat disconnected from your lifestyle of extensive travel in your early twenties.

Yeah, I I I was I was new for me because I had I was very distant relationship with technology. I didn't really wasn't that interested in that because at a time technology was sort of that human scale IT was what this technology was like, airplanes and factories and industrial stuff. That's what technology was.

I didn't really have interest in that IT seemed like not human scale IT wasn't until the internet began that I felt that all this is a human scale, this is organic, this is much more like life. And that was the beginning of my interest. And technology was because with more human scale, and A I is human scale, we have a conversation that's very, very human. It's not a big steam rollers, not a big factory. And so he wasn't told the internet began, that I became interested .

in technology. Do you have any adults or row models in your life?

I do. My hero in high school was Henry David sorrow. He was a presidential st. Who wrote a book, a very famous book called walden. He also wrote book called civil disobedience.

But what he did was he went the woods and belt his own house, and they lived in the woods and very, very frugally. And what he observed and rote about nature and about things, and I just loved that idea. And I D later on did build my own house.

He was kind of very simple, living in very an examined life. And he was, he was very observant, so he was my hero in high school. 嗯， and later on, as a happy, he was kind of, he was a very influential person in the hippies. And we do with the row .

inside that a lot of innovations come from poverty. So how has your life and my side evolved from the time when you use to write in a the key bank, your shoes, to your current state of fame and success as a writer? Have you had to deal with the chAllenges that come with fame as well?

Well, he has me fame trend, not in the U. S. Um oh.

really yeah.

There are too many other interesting people in technology. People would rather talk to same altman to me. But I think you one of things, the argument that are making about the incumbent and why they're not always going to be the incoming is because the innovations come on, you have no money.

The innovations come when you have no resources and you can buy a solution. And so um I think IT isn't issue of want to remain kind of close to the ground as simple as possible and not let money into fear. So when the reasons why I travel or go camping is to kind of strip away all the trappings you have and to see how little you can live on and I think even though I am not poor at that moment, I can be poor in spirit.

I can feel close to the ground and begin to be creative in that way without feeling like they have to, feeling as if I need to make my own ideas. The problem with a lot of wealth is that, and I don't have a lot of wealth and wealthy enough. The problem with having a lot of wealth is that you have to do something with IT.

IT takes over your life, and it's easy to buy a solution. I think what you want to do is i'm always working on things where I don't have the money to buy the solution. I don't hint hire IT out.

So I have to do IT myself. And that forces me to be creative on my own. There is a, there is a baLance when you have success. I think that success can really imprison people.

I do think about this question a lot about how do I make sure that my success doesn't prohibit me from being creative later on because you can, I really can you you write about that. So I I think for me the way is is to, first of all, I advise Young people in myself, never do have a billion dollars. It's hard.

You try everything you can to never have a billion dollars. why? Because they will imprison you.

IT will take over your life. You can spend IT. So it's always there and you have to deal with.

That is bad for your kids, is bad for your own thing. That is a crazy, the way that works you. So whatever you do do not have a billion dollars. So I don't have a billion dollars, and I am around billionaires all the time. I have a lot of friends were billion airs and it's they can escape IT is hard for them to continue to be creative is really hard.

So I think one of the ways to to remain successful is to try and go into an area that you are an expert and don't know where you are beginner, where you can fail. So so you you actually want to try things that you don't know are going to succeed, that you are likely to fail. It's hard for someone who's successful because you we expect them to be successful again and you have to really, really tried to do something where you could actually .

fail what kind of difficulty they will experience when they become a billionaire uh.

oh my gosh. I think when i'm around the body, so I am wealthiest than them because I have free time. They don't have free time. The time is consumed by having to deal with decisions about the money they have, or the people that theyve hired or you wear in buffet. When the richest people in the world, he decided, give all his money to build gates, to give away because it's so much trouble. You need to meetings and meetings about people, the money in the have decisions and it's a little responsibility, is another job becomes a whole other job. The billion dollars.

How much money do you think a person half is best?

Oh yeah, that's a good question. Most people think the best number is twice whatever they had yeah whatever IT is twice how much is is the right amount. We're in buffett.

He asked that about his kids how much money he was going to leave. He says, I want to give them enough to do whatever they want, but not much. 是的。 Don't do anything.

So I think the answer is you need to have enough to do what that is that you want. But like I ask Young people, I said I would give you a billion dollars. I have a magic launcher. Tomorrow will be billion dollars. What do you do with IT well, and they say, yeah.

maybe buy a car you .

in house, what with, oh, maybe a travel around the world or something. So you don't need to doing down that.

Yes.

you can do that with yeah. So people think that this money that's preventing them from doing what IT is they really want to do. And it's not that's the whole point.

So you don't you don't need that much to do your dreams to do what what is your me to do. You need just enough. And it's not anywhere close to a billion dollars, not a million dollars.

Tell you in a book you mention that the idea of spending all your money where you are alive, right? Where would you choose to allocate your money?

So we have a nice profit, our family to to give to things, and so far giving money to the now profit that I work with, long nail foundation, which is trying to courage people to think long term. So we have a bunch of now profits that we support. And I have kids, and so the kids will get some money for sure. Have three kids. They need the house.

Yeah, no, you have a chinese wife, right? yes. What has the experience been like? Having a chinese .

life is great. I recommend that.

You mentioned that to make a marriage happy, both partners should take turns having in the final say, how have you and your wife implemented this well?

So like, very easy for the past twenty years. She's always right. I tell her that you're always right.

If is a decision, you're right is very good, very smart. You smarter than me. He is a lot of common sense. And so I just say, you're right, that makes you perfect marriage.

Do you ever have moments where you feel old? If so.

how do you address? Yes, when I see old? yeah.

When I have to climate mountain, I do a lot of hiking. I have to go slower up up the mountain. I feel old.

I have a saying, a piece of advice that you're only as Young as the last time you changed your mind. So the more you change your mind, the Younger you are. And so i'd like to change in my mind, if I can that help me stay Young.

But physically, yeah, it's hard to, it's hard to get around that. I do my ten thousand, I walk every day and stuff, so I stay active and hiking, bicycle. But still, you know, mentally you can stay Young by changing your mind and how old age .

brought an unique and interesting experiences in your life. 这 只是 one or two。

yeah. I mean, I don't know. I just think that that i've seen a lot of fringe ilan valley have just seen many, many cycles and feel the same thing happening hipe or not.

So I have a perspective of having lived through IT many times. That's very, very useful. I think also, just like I have many see many people try and do things, some succeed, some don't.

So that gives me perspective. So I think you have I have seventy years of experience which can be valuable, you can take lessons from. And also, I fed seventy years of experience of being around other people who I think you are also wise.

So I have friends that I think I admire because they're wise, and I learned a lot from them, and I have a long time to learn from them. I think, you know, the older you are, the more wise you can become, because you have, I have one of experiences. Yeah.

what's the most regrettable thing if .

dance good? I, I do regret we didn't have more children. Children are just fantastic, is so great.

The kids they love having brothers and sisters is so much fun for them. It's fun for us. Another mind that work is just a joy to see them develop. So would been, we regret not having more kids.

What are some important things still on your bucky list?

I don't have a bus.

You never have one.

No.

what's your daily routine?

I don't have a daily routine, but i'm working on the next project is something called the file, one hundred year desirable future.

H, so i'm .

trying to make scenarios for a world with A I and genetic engineering and constant monitoring that I want .

to live in.

So it's a story, a picture of a world in the future with all this technology that is a one that I want to live in. You emphasize .

the importance of asking questions. So sty was the one question about technology today you most eager to explore.

The question, I think is, is evolution have a direction? 嗯， and that's a question i've been working on for a while. I think he does. But the question is, how does that have a direction that's a questioned I have no idea about, but the the question about the direction of evolution and whether has the direction is a very profound question. In the end course, I try to answer IT in what technology wants, does technology have direction? And so um but I think the fundamental question is about whether evolution has relation.

Before coming here, I ask your readers and fans in chinese tech community. Here are some of their questions. Here are two questions from two months. One, in the age of A, I wore jobs or fields of study I especially needed for the future.

Ha, I don't know what jobs are going to be needed in the future, but I would say the way to prepare for a job now is to become a Better learner, be able to learn faster and Better. So the skill you want to have is not a specific scale, is the general scale of learning. So, so IT wired.

When we were hiring people, we didn't hire people for their skills. We hired them for their attitude, for their attitude because we wanted web developers. There was no web developer.

We were inventing the web. So we couldn't find someone who knew had a program, the web, because we just invented last year. So we were hiring people enough for their skills and enough for the the skills they head, but for their ability to learn the new thing really fast.

So that's what I would say. You want to be working a job. This this was invented last week, last year, and so tried to maximize and optimize your own ability to learn.

And another question from my mom, you and tim ferries are advocates of rest africa leads to Better work effect. What's the one advice you have for parents who are raising kids in a highly of education system that leaves kids with little room to play?

Make sure they play competitor schools are way overrated. And you absolutely have to have kids of unscheduled time that is a determined to them to this fill your day with study. That was just terrible.

Since you point the one thousand two fans concept, which is the basis for all creative economy, how do you think generate active A? I will change the nature of creation and building a fan base. And the excitement about created economy has been cooling off yeah at less from investment point of view. So anything you would like to update or change about this theory?

Nothing to change about the theory um is true that there was a lot of hypo about create economy and in terms of investment, but I think there's a role for A I in the creator economy um what that is it's intern is a cheap intern that everybody has access two and they should take of image of that he can help their productivity ity.

I think as I we mentioned with with youtube, I think maybe I did mention here, I think there will be new venues are moving into moving images like tiktok in youtube with A I assistance will become opening up a whole round of of immediate to people who are individual craters who are not like a big company that will be exciting. But in general um A I I think could do some of the clerical work that is involved in thousand two fans. I would be very careful about having A R A interact with fans.

IT is a substitute for yourself. I think there might be temptation for some people you to chat, to have A A, I chat with the fans. Maybe that works, maybe doesn't.

I don't know. I be very careful about, 嗯， 哼 嗯。 That's the downs to a thousand two fans. Downside to thousand two fences is that you have you as a creator, have to spend incredible many time with your friends. yeah.

And so could I help that? I could i'd have to see maybe there are some things that I would be really good for. And and the thing about is I and for full disclosure, I think if you use A I to interact with people, you have to disclose that to people.

They should know that you're interacting with an ai. And I think we will get the point that will be fine with that. We do that with uh, help desks.

You know i'm interacting with some kind of AI. That's okay. You can help me, but I want to know that is nai, so I know i'm fine.

I .

will be.

Take a look.

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