cover of episode #168. Cameron Johnson: The Big Connection

#168. Cameron Johnson: The Big Connection

2025/3/3
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THD美籍华人英语访谈秀

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Cameron Johnson: 我专注于供应链和制造业咨询,在中亚地区参观过5000多家工厂。我认为理解供应链生态系统至关重要,它由五个关键要素组成:先进的基础设施(港口、铁路、电网等)、技术(机械、软件等)、政府支持(补贴、税收优惠、采购法规等)、人才以及原材料及其加工能力。 当前全球供应链正经历整合与分散的复杂过程。所谓的“去风险化”并非真正的脱钩,而是全球化2.0,供应链更加分散,但同时也更加紧密地联系在一起。例如,中国企业在全球各地建立工厂,同时依赖中国的技术、人才和原材料。这种分散化反而增加了其他国家对中美关系的依赖,降低了冲突的可能性。 美国的“制造业回流”政策存在过度简化,忽视了人才缺口、成本等因素。疫情期间的PPE(个人防护装备)危机就是一个例子,尽管美国有本土生产商,但由于价格等因素,政府和医院仍然大量依赖中国进口。这表明,完全与中国脱钩是不现实的,每个主要供应链都或多或少地与中国相关联。 中国在疫情期间迅速建立了口罩供应链生态系统,展现了其强大的动员能力。然而,这种能力也需要巨大的资金和牺牲。西方国家往往缺乏这种长期规划和牺牲的意愿,这使得中国在全球竞争中占据优势。 我与美国决策者的交流中发现,他们对中国存在误解和不信任。他们希望通过“去风险化”来削弱中国的影响力,但这种做法过于简单化,反而可能适得其反。中国企业在全球扩张,同时遵守当地法规,这反而扩大了中国的影响力。 长期来看,我认为中美关系将保持紧密联系。只要星巴克、大熊猫、雷神公司、埃克森美孚、苹果和迪士尼等仍然在中国有业务,脱钩就是不可能的。虽然挑战依然存在,但全球互联互通的趋势不可逆转。 我的目标是促进和平,减少冲突。我认为供应链的整合可以降低冲突的风险,并提高全球生活水平。我正在撰写一本关于供应链与战争的书籍,探讨供应链在和平与冲突中的作用。 Justin: 我很好奇,你如何看待美国对中国供应链的依赖以及去风险化战略? Eric: 你提到的供应链整合和分散化,以及美国试图将制造业回流的政策,都非常复杂。你能否更详细地解释一下这些政策的实际影响以及它们可能带来的意外后果?

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter defines a supply chain ecosystem and breaks it down into five key areas: advanced infrastructure, technology, government support, talent, and raw materials. It illustrates these concepts using the example of how a coffee cup is made.
  • Supply chain ecosystem consists of five key areas: advanced infrastructure, technology, government support, talent, and raw materials.
  • The example of an iPhone is used to illustrate how complex and interconnected supply chains are.

Shownotes Transcript

Cameron Johnson is an expert in supply chains, manufacturing, and technology.  He is frequently sought out for his expertise on US-China trade and supply chain issues, and is a delegate to Washington DC where he advises US politicians and officials.  He is also a professor at New York University and former Vice-Chair of the board at the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.  He is a senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions with clients in various high technology sectors and he has been quoted by both American and Chinese news outlets alike.  His work helping US buyers source personal protective equipment during the pandemic has been featured on the PBS series Frontline titled “America’s Medical Supply Crisis”. Today we talk about US-China trade relations, the supply chain ecosystem, and the political forces that shape it.  Cameron shares what’s fueling America’s approach to “de-risking” or “decoupling” from China and his long-term outlook for global peace.  We discuss the oversimplification of reshoring manufacturing to the US and the political rhetoric around it.  We also explore the role of supply chains in reducing global conflicts, despite current tensions.

Follow Cameron on substack: decoupling.substack.com)


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