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cover of episode Podcast EP 18 Rug Pull (Jul 27)

Podcast EP 18 Rug Pull (Jul 27)

2023/7/28
logo of podcast Not Your Advisor

Not Your Advisor

Shownotes Transcript

**Available on Spotify) | iTunes) | **Amazon Music)Twitter: nyugradsubstack)Threads: nyugrad.substack)

Show Notes

I didn’t want to go over 20 min so I forgot to cover two important items.

  • The Volatility Index. It has been very very profitable to short the $VIX through any number of ways ie, sell options and using the options premium to go long, or buying calls on bearish volatility or puts on bullish volatility. However, The $VIX as it sits now, is arguably and nominally zero. If you are bullish equities, this is a very cheap time to buy hedges on your bullish portfolio.

Whether VIX is 14, 12, 9.99 or 5, it is nearing the floor. It reminds me when Oil went to zero! remember that nonsense?!?! many Billionaires were made during that time!

  • $ENPH reported and they threw up solar panels. I tweeted that I was baffled why a solar panel company is having trouble selling amidst the hottest year on record. And it was brought to my attention by @BasedQian) and @BertinBertin )that both $SPWR and $RUN were also doing horribly.

9:50am 10 yr Treasury yields up. Meant $USD was up. Stocks were swimming up stream as usual.

But as early as 9:55am the sell off began. 20 min after opening bell. 

at 12:45pm the selling accelerated

Breadth intraday

$AAPL Choose your own adventure

As it unfolded Apple Computer was carving out a balance area. I knew there were only a few likely outcomes possible.

What was Strong?

$ABBV - This is a leading Pharma name. Pays a 4.17% dividend and did you know they own BOTOX!!! They beat and raised guidance. Stock was up 4.9%

Look at the balance area from May through Jul, and. now breaking out initiatively higher.

$META up 4%. Was up more but you have to give credit and watch stocks that swim upstream like Meta.

$ROKU up 8% after earnings after hours. Lets see how it opens. Keep in context this stock is down from its highs of $463!

What was Weak?

$CROX -14.6%

$CMG -9%. Down two days in a row

What to watch?

Friday Economic Data

Next Week is $AAPL earnings on Thursday Aug 3 after the bell!

Financial Freedom is not free but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nyugrad.substack.com/subscribe)