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cover of episode An Accurate Understanding Of U.S. Inflation: A Deep Dive with John Williams Of Shadow Stats

An Accurate Understanding Of U.S. Inflation: A Deep Dive with John Williams Of Shadow Stats

2025/1/29
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Finding Genius Podcast

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John Williams: 我发现许多政府统计数据存在问题,并且随着时间的推移发生了变化,前后不一致。以消费者价格指数(CPI)为例,政府为了削减社会保障的生活费用调整,对CPI进行了重新定义,导致总体通货膨胀率被低估。自1982年以来,仅根据CPI组成部分的定义,消费者价格指数与今天的总差异略高于9%。这意味着,如果政府报告的通货膨胀率为3%,实际可能高达11%或12%。这种操纵行为不仅影响了社会保障的调整,也扭曲了人们对经济状况的认知。我通过使用最初的CPI计算方法,发布了“替代CPI”,以更准确地反映实际通货膨胀情况。此外,失业率的计算也存在问题。政府只计算积极寻找工作的人,而那些放弃寻找工作的人在六个月后就不再被纳入统计。这导致官方失业率远低于实际情况,我估计实际失业率可能超过20%。GDP数据也存在“花招”,政府报告的GDP增长率可能与实际零售额、工业生产等月度数据不符。我认为,政府对经济数据的操纵是为了政治目的,掩盖真实的经济问题。

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Shownotes Transcript

In today’s episode, we connect with John Williams to discuss U.S. inflation, money supply, unemployment, GDP, and more. John is the founder of Shadow Stats), a platform that uncovers and scrutinizes the hidden flaws in U.S. government economic data and private-sector statistics. By offering a clear, unbiased assessment of the true economic and financial landscape, John is on a mission to provide others with accurate information – free from the distortions of financial-market trends and political agendas

John has been a private consulting economist and a specialist in government economic reporting for more than three decades. His early work in economic reporting landed him front-page stories in leading publications like The New York Times) and Investor's Business Daily). He has a bachelor's degree in economics from Dartmouth College and a master's degree in business administration from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.

Join the conversation now to discover:

The aggregate difference between consumer prices in the 1980s versus today.  Key factors impacting inflation, and the role that politics play in reported numbers. How data has been manipulated for unemployment and inflation statistics. Where to find reliable economic information. 

To stay updated on current stats, be sure to subscribe to John’s email list by sending a message to [email protected]).

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Episode also available on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/30PvU9C)