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cover of episode Weaponizing Uncertainty: How Tech is Recycling Big Tobacco’s Playbook

Weaponizing Uncertainty: How Tech is Recycling Big Tobacco’s Playbook

2025/3/20
logo of podcast Your Undivided Attention

Your Undivided Attention
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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D
Daniel
软件开发专家，专注于编程和技术博客写作。
N
Naomi Oreskes
T
Tristan
Topics
Tristan: 历史经验表明，社会需要很长时间才能应对某些行业造成的危害，而AI等新兴科技的快速发展使得我们正常的反应时间与及时采取行动之间存在冲突。我们需要在不确定性中做出大胆的决定，同时对新信息保持开放态度。 Daniel: 社会在面对不确定性时，容易因恐惧而回避思考和讨论相关话题，从而阻碍集体决策。一些公司和个人利用精心策划的活动制造怀疑和不确定性，以掩盖其产品造成的危害。我们需要学习如何区分真实的科学不确定性和人为制造的怀疑。 Naomi Oreskes: "怀疑的商人"最初是一群冷战时期的物理学家，他们利用自身影响力攻击气候科学和烟草危害科学，其策略是利用科学界正常的质疑方式，但在非科学场合提出，制造公众的怀疑。他们的行为动机是意识形态的，他们担心政府对经济的干预会威胁到自由，并最终导致极权主义。他们通过制造不确定性来阻止行动，利用科学界固有的不确定性，将其放大并转移到公共领域，从而使公众对科学结论产生怀疑。他们的策略还包括：收买科学家、强调需要更多研究、创建虚假组织（Astroturfing）、强调个人责任、转移人们对问题的真正根源的注意力等。 我们需要理解，真正的科学需要我们与不确定性共存，但制造的怀疑是一种不公平的对话策略，它破坏了我们集体行动的能力。面对制造的怀疑，科学家不应该试图宣称绝对的确定性，而应该承认科学固有的不确定性，并基于现有最佳信息做出决策，同时为未来的调整做好准备。芝加哥学派对亚当·斯密的解读具有选择性，忽略了其关于经济监管的观点，这是一种对知识的故意歪曲。对于AI风险，我们需要谨慎对待“基于科学的方法”的说法，因为历史上，各个行业都曾利用这一说法来推迟监管。政府在应对新兴科技的风险时，需要在不同利益之间取得平衡，制定合理的规章制度，并借鉴蒙特利尔议定书的经验，采用适应性管理模式。为了避免被误导，个人应该学会批判性思维，质疑信息来源，并关注信息提供者的利益动机。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This introductory chapter sets the stage by discussing the historical pattern of delayed societal responses to industrial harms and the role of uncertainty in this delay. It introduces Naomi Oreskes and her work on understanding and resisting manufactured doubt, particularly relevant in the rapidly evolving context of AI.
  • Society often takes a long time to address industrial harms.
  • Uncertainty is weaponized to delay action.
  • Naomi Oreskes' work reveals how uncertainty is strategically created and used to protect profits.

Shownotes Transcript

One of the hardest parts about being human today is navigating uncertainty. When we see experts battling in public and emotions running high, it's easy to doubt what we once felt certain about. This uncertainty isn't always accidental—it's often strategically manufactured.

Historian Naomi Oreskes, author of "Merchants of Doubt," reveals how industries from tobacco to fossil fuels have deployed a calculated playbook to create uncertainty about their products' harms. These campaigns have delayed regulation and protected profits by exploiting how we process information.

In this episode, Oreskes breaks down that playbook page-by-page while offering practical ways to build resistance against them. As AI rapidly transforms our world, learning to distinguish between genuine scientific uncertainty and manufactured doubt has never been more critical.Your Undivided Attention is produced by the Center for Humane Technology). Follow us on Twitter: @HumaneTech_)RECOMMENDED MEDIA

“Merchants of Doubt” by Naomi Oreskes and Eric Conway) 

"The Big Myth” by Naomi Oreskes and Eric Conway )

"Silent Spring” by Rachel Carson )

"The Jungle” by Upton Sinclair) 

Further reading on the clash between Galileo and the Pope) 

Further reading on the Montreal Protocol) 

RECOMMENDED YUA EPISODES

Laughing at Power: A Troublemaker’s Guide to Changing Tech) AI Is Moving Fast. We Need Laws that Will Too.) Tech's Big Money Campaign is Getting Pushback with Margaret O'Mara and Brody Mullins) Former OpenAI Engineer William Saunders on Silence, Safety, and the Right to Warn)CORRECTIONS:

  • Naomi incorrectly referenced Global Climate Research Program established under President Bush Sr. The correct name is the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
  • Naomi referenced U.S. agencies that have been created with sunset clauses. While several statutes have been created with sunset clauses, no federal agency has been.

CLARIFICATION: Naomi referenced the U.S. automobile industry claiming that they would be “destroyed” by seatbelt regulation. We couldn’t verify this specific language but it is consistent with the anti-regulatory stance of that industry toward seatbelt laws.