Here's Why Trump Says He Can Get a Deal with Putin
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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. I'm Stephen Carroll and this is Here's Why, where we take one news story and explain it in just a few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg. Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled.

and it will take me no longer than one day. I know exactly what to say to each of them. I got along with very well with them. It was a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet, Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. We have the perfect dealmaker at the table from a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy

The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America and Russia's top diplomats in Saudi Arabia paving the way for face-to-face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.

Our senior writer, Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called Punishing Putin on the Financial Measures the West Has Taken Against Moscow, joins me now for more. Stephanie, first of all, what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin? Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in very jarring circumstances, despite Putin intervening.

invading Ukraine and killing and maiming hundreds of thousands of people. Trump has mostly spoken of Putin in positive terms. They had a 90-minute call last week, the first contact between a U.S. president and Putin since 2021.

And Trump was in admiration of Putin during his first term. Remember, his administration rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisers. So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly. Has Trump given Putin an advantage by promising to move quickly on this?

Unfortunately, yes. After some initial talk of ramping up sanctions on Russia, if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war, he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal. Trump just recently said that a third-rate dealmaker could have ended this war three years ago and actually blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It was Russia that invaded Ukraine.

Now, of course, it's easy to do a deal if you agree to all of Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can sign up to. And it's not a deal that Europe is ready to support either. You know, Trump administration officials have already seeded key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have even begun. You know, say NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine to regain control.

It's 2014 borders. So those are things that might be part of an eventual agreement. But the idea of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations start doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an extraordinary shift.

for the US administration after three years of isolating Russia. What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get into those negotiations? Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, ceding territory to Russia. We don't know how much.

I think the key sticking point will be this tripwire force. Some people call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to send troops to back that up, but said that they need U.S. assurances to support any operation. Already, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said that Russia cannot agree to European troops in Ukraine. This is a key demand of the Russians today.

that they do not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine, even if it's not formally NATO. Now, Donald Trump has said that Ukraine will be involved in later talks, but how much leverage can President Volodymyr Zelensky have in these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being established without him? Right, well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyadh. Trump has said that he will be included later,

But I think the concern is that a lot of things will be agreed without the Ukrainians' participation. I think in reality, Zelensky has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on U.S. and European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force without U.S. military logistics and support.

Trump has already started talking about the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key Russian talking point. Putin has said that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader. He was elected in 2019 and they haven't held elections because of martial law and the war. But the idea of holding an election now with the country at war is unrealistic. You know, how do you secure polling stations?

How do soldiers in the trenches vote? What about the six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country? And if they lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are barred from leaving the country would be able to leave. So how do you negotiate? How do you arrange elections? You know, in that case, they'd have to change the law.

I think Trump has demanded also that Ukraine cede 50% of its critical mineral resources, not only for future security assurances, but to reimburse the U.S. for past military and financial aid, which is an extraordinary demand that Zelensky has so far resisted.

Your book looked at the financial sanctions that the West has imposed on Putin because of this. Will they be a key tool in these negotiations as well as it comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin? Absolutely. And here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because they have been painful.

As I detailed in my book, Punishing Putin, those G7 economic sanctions on Russia cost

the country hundreds of billions of dollars and Putin wants sanctions relief I think primarily to regroup and rearm and they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the negotiating table whether or not they're going to be used effectively remains to be seen there had been some noise from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those sanctions to possibly extract more concessions from Putin which would have been a smart way to use them

Instead, you have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of the world. Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, thank you. Stephanie's book, Punishing Putin, is out now. For more explanations like this from our team of 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world, search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app.

I'm Stephen Carroll. This is Here's Why. I'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.

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