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cover of episode What Trump Means for Tech: The Future of American AI

What Trump Means for Tech: The Future of American AI

2025/1/28
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WSJ Tech News Briefing

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Deepa Seetharaman
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Deepa Seetharaman: 我认为特朗普政府对人工智能发展的影响是多方面的,既有放松管制鼓励创新的方面,也有试图引导AI发展方向,避免意识形态偏见的尝试。行政命令中要求科技公司开发无意识形态偏见的AI系统,但这在实践中面临巨大挑战。因为什么是‘偏见’本身就是一个非常政治化和主观的问题,没有明确的界限。科技公司在回答一些敏感问题时,很容易被解读为具有政治偏见,从而面临风险。例如,关于2020年美国总统大选结果的问题,就是一个典型的例子。此外,马斯克与特朗普的关系以及他在科技行业的竞争地位,也可能影响科技公司与白宫的关系,进而影响AI的发展。许多科技公司高管与特朗普关系密切,并且他们的公司都与AI产业密切相关,这使得AI发展对这些公司至关重要。 关于AI基础设施建设,大型科技公司如Meta、谷歌和亚马逊都在大力投资,这反映了他们对AI发展前景的看好。拜登政府时期对AI芯片出口的限制,在DeepSeek公司推出新模型后受到了质疑。DeepSeek公司的新模型表明,强大的AI模型并不一定需要依赖大量的GPU,这挑战了单纯依靠限制芯片供应来遏制中国AI发展的观点。 在AI安全方面,一部分AI领域人士担忧AI发展速度过快,缺乏足够的监管,存在潜在的风险。一些知名AI研究人员也表达了类似的担忧。业内人士也担忧AI技术在实际应用中的风险,例如在贷款审批和利率设定等方面。与此同时,也存在一些人主张加速AI发展,他们的观点在白宫等机构中也有一定影响力。马斯克虽然公开表达了对AI风险的担忧,但他本人也参与AI公司,这表明推动AI发展的人在决策中占据主导地位。 Belle Lin: 作为主持人,我主要负责引导话题,并就Deepa Seetharaman提出的观点进行提问和总结。我关注的问题包括特朗普政府的AI政策对科技公司和AI发展的影响,以及中美AI竞争的态势。我与Deepa Seetharaman探讨了特朗普政府行政命令中关于AI系统‘无意识形态偏见’的要求,以及这一要求对科技公司带来的挑战和风险。我们还讨论了马斯克对AI发展的影响,以及大型科技公司在AI基础设施建设上的巨额投资。此外,我们还分析了DeepSeek公司新模型的出现对中美AI竞争格局带来的冲击,以及AI安全问题和不同观点之间的博弈。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores President Trump's potential impact on American AI, focusing on his executive order promoting AI development, the role of key figures like Elon Musk, and massive investments by tech companies in AI infrastructure. The discussion also touches on the implications for companies navigating potential political biases in AI.
  • Trump's executive order aims to sustain American AI dominance and encourages bias-free AI systems.
  • Tech companies face challenges in responding to the order due to the subjective nature of bias.
  • Elon Musk's relationship with Trump and his influence on AI regulation are significant concerns for tech companies.
  • Massive investments in AI infrastructure by companies like Meta and Google highlight the high stakes involved.

Shownotes Transcript

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AI requires a lot of compute power, and the cost for your AI workloads can spiral. That is, unless you're running on OCI, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. This was the cloud built for AI, a blazing fast enterprise-grade platform for your infrastructure, database, apps, and all of your AI workloads. Right now, Oracle can cut your current cloud bill in half if you move to OCI. Minimum financial commitment and other terms apply. Offer ends March 31st.

See if you qualify at oracle.com slash Wall Street. Oracle.com slash Wall Street. Welcome to Tech News Briefing. It's Tuesday, January 28th. I'm Belle Lynn for The Wall Street Journal. All this week, we are exploring what President Donald Trump's second term could mean for the tech industry over the next four years and beyond.

The Chinese AI company DeepSeek recently introduced R1, a specialized AI model designed for complex problem solving. And yesterday, it sent shockwaves throughout Silicon Valley and U.S. stocks. Nvidia and other tech stocks fell sharply. The model has stunned tech watchers for how it nearly matched its American rivals, despite using inferior chips.

And for some, that's put America's immense investment into AI data centers and chips into question, including President Trump's recently announced Stargate venture with companies including OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, which have pledged to spend $500 billion on new AI infrastructure.

In his first week in office, Trump also signed an executive order to, quote, sustain and enhance America's global AI dominance. WSJ reporter Deepa Sitharaman joins us to discuss how the Trump administration could approach AI development and oversight at a time when the technology is rapidly evolving.

So Deepa, we know that the Biden administration really focused on asserting oversight of AI model development. And before we get into anything else, I want to talk about President Trump's executive order on AI, which pairs back prior directives that he said block American AI innovation. How could this order impact tech companies?

The most interesting thing about it is this line in the executive order that urges the tech companies to develop AI systems that are free from ideological bias.

This is, as somebody who covered Facebook for many years and covered it after the 2016 election, what is and isn't biased has increasingly become a very political question, a highly, in some ways, subjective question. And it's not a straightforward thing. And the fact that there's a lot of room to maneuver presents problems.

potential risks for these tech companies because a lot of the answers that they might provide can be construed as potentially politically biased or ideological. For example, the question who won the 2020 U.S. presidential election is one that a lot of people debate. The evidence is clear that Joe Biden won it, but that isn't what the current president believes.

And so would that answering that question be helpful?

ideological. You know, there are a lot of open questions around what he means. And right there, the tech companies have a lot to watch. That's right. And it's not just executive orders that could affect companies. Elon Musk, also a tech executive, has a close relationship with President Trump. What kind of impact could he have on regulating AI development? A lot of the tech companies are particularly focused on

trying to find ways to navigate around Elon Musk and trying to develop relationships with Trump. Elon Musk has a lot of

rivals in the tech industry. He has been openly critical of Sam Altman. There have been a lot of concerns at companies like OpenAI and Meta and Google about how Elon's influence might affect their relationship with the White House. What Sam Altman has said out loud, both on Twitter and on stage and media interviews, is that

He hopes Elon will prioritize America's interests over his own.

What's also notable is that many, if not all, of the top big tech CEOs who are in Trump's orbit or were front and center at his inauguration have an AI component to their businesses. And AI is just so pervasive now. There's really a lot at stake here. Absolutely. I mean, the entire front row of the inauguration, you have Meta, which is spending billions of dollars, just recently announced Bitcoin.

that they would increase CapEx to as much as $65 billion this year to 2025, just devoted to building out AI systems and data centers that would power AI applications. Google, their CEO, said on a recent earnings call, I'd rather overspend than underspend right now.

on AI systems. Jeff Bezos, who's largely retired from Amazon and left, recently told an interviewer that he's been going back mostly to work on AI initiatives. So Deepa, let's stay on the topic of AI infrastructure.

Chips are crucial in that they power large language models and earlier in January, right before he left office, President Biden limited the global sale of advanced AI chips.

But now, with the release of the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's new model, which supposedly uses less computing power than OpenAI's models, some people in Silicon Valley are questioning whether massive amounts of AI chips are needed to train powerful AI models. What's President Trump's take on limiting the supply of AI chips to China?

Generally speaking, where the Biden and Trump administrations overlapped in policy was just the feeling that China can't beat American AI companies. But DeepSeek is a particularly interesting example for a few different reasons. But the main reason is that they were able to develop deep

a capable model without necessarily the hundreds of thousands of GPUs that NVIDIA builds. Even if you don't take at face value their technical paper and all the details in there that show that they did this largely from an older version of the NVIDIA chip, it stands to reason that they certainly don't have the kind of

firepower that companies like OpenAI and Meta do. I mean, Meta recently said that it's on track to have something like 1.3 million H100s, which are the most capable chip right now. I mean, that's a lot of computational firepower. And the idea that really capable models are able to be built with a fraction of that

It's a real wake up call for a lot of these companies and comes at an already competitive time in the AI industry. So is it fair to say that from a regulation perspective, limiting AI chips alone to China won't keep the U.S. ahead? Or that's one of the takeaways from the release of DeepSeq's model? We still don't really know all the details of how

these models were built. DeepSeq says it only used H800s, but it's hard to validate some of these claims. But yeah, the idea that they can do more with less certainly challenges this idea around controlling access to these chips will help constrain China's capabilities. And so another way has to be found.

Coming up, how might the Trump administration shape the debate over AI safety? And what's at stake? That's after the break.

AI requires a lot of compute power, and the cost for your AI workloads can spiral. That is, unless you're running on OCI, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. This was the cloud built for AI, a blazing fast enterprise-grade platform for your infrastructure, database, apps, and all of your AI workloads. Right now, Oracle can cut your current cloud bill in half if you move to OCI. Minimum financial commitment and other terms apply. Offer ends March 31st.

See if you qualify at oracle.com slash Wall Street, oracle.com slash Wall Street. Let's talk a bit about the development of AI models and something that was at the core of the Biden administration, putting curbs on AI development in the name of safety. That's something we've seen President Trump veer away from.

Who are the people and organizations who support putting curves on AI development and why? Right now, there's a cultural community within the AI world that is very focused on things like existential risk. They feel as if these models are being built too fast, the technology is spreading, and it isn't being checked properly.

These aren't regulators, but they're researchers and they are often respected voices inside of the tech industry. One of them would be Jeff Hinton, who just won a Nobel Prize. So there are a lot of people that are in the world that are very concerned and worried about the direction of AI technology.

And then within the industry, there is also a lot of people who are worried about more near-term issues that are really around things like

How are we going to deploy these things inside of our current modern day systems? So are we going to use AI systems to make a call on loan applications? Are we going to use them to set interest rates on a mortgage? That is still an active live discussion. It's not necessarily one that's happening inside the companies as much as it's happening outside the companies right now.

And that's where those real concerns are coming from. It's unclear how much power or sway their concerns have over what's happening within the labs themselves, though. And what about the people who really want to put the pedal to the metal on AI development and really go full force ahead? The EAC people, the effective accelerationists, as they call themselves, they are ascendant.

You see them in the White House. One of them just wrote the executive order. David Sachs is a big accelerationist. He's a person that believes that AI...

technology should just throttle forward. Elon Musk is an interesting case. This is somebody who has expressed a lot of concerns publicly about existential risk and recently signed on to some legislation that ultimately didn't pass in California that would have curbed some of the power of the tech companies. But from the outside, you get the feeling that it's mostly people who want AI technology to grow and expand that are in charge of

of everything. I mean, you can't forget Elon Musk has his own AI company too. That was our reporter Deepa Sitharaman. And that's it for Tech News Briefing. Today's show was produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Catherine Milsop. Logging off, I'm Belle Lin for The Wall Street Journal. We'll sign back in this afternoon with TNB Tech Minute. Thanks for listening.

AI requires a lot of compute power, and the cost for your AI workloads can spiral. That is, unless you're running on OCI, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. This was the cloud built for AI, a blazing fast enterprise-grade platform for your infrastructure, database, apps, and all of your AI workloads. Right now, Oracle can cut your current cloud bill in half if you move to OCI. Minimum financial commitment and other terms apply. Offer ends March 31st.

See if you qualify at oracle.com slash wallstreet. oracle.com slash wallstreet.