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China Across CSIS: Lessons and Next Steps from Deals with China and the UK
2025/5/29
Pekingology
B
Bill Reinsch
S
Scott Miller
Scott Miller: 我认为美中贸易战的降级是件好事，双方都在学习和调整。虽然协议旨在恢复贸易，但并未完全恢复到之前的状态。市场和政治对此反应良好，双方缓和了言辞，改善了贸易条件，避免了完全失控的局面。中国制造商非常灵活，可以通过转口贸易规避关税。美国可以通过减少对中国进口的依赖来取得胜利。
Bill Reinsch: 我认为美国在美中贸易谈判中让步更多，但整体而言，缓和是好消息。虽然中国做出了一些实质性让步，但并未在补贴、知识产权盗窃等根本问题上做出改变。本届政府意识到对中国零部件征收高额关税会损害美国制造业，并采取措施避免这种情况。中国不会同意改变其经济模式，因为这涉及到党对社会的控制。降低油价可能会减缓国内石油生产的增长。贸易谈判总是在最后一天达成协议，可能会有延期。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the Geneva Agreement between the U.S. and China, exploring whether it represents a genuine de-escalation or merely a temporary reprieve in the trade war. The discussion covers the agreement's details, market reactions, and the underlying unresolved issues.
- US and China backed away from extreme tariff positions.
- Both sides sent high-level negotiators.
- The agreement involved a cooling-off period and a plan to continue negotiations.
- Fundamental issues like subsidies and IP theft remain unresolved.
Shownotes Transcript