A Political Dilemma for Israel's Prime Minister
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Support for this podcast and the following message come from Allianz Travel Insurance. Planning on Jamaica for Christmas and Iceland in July? An all-trips plan can protect your trips all year. Learn more at AllianzTravelInsurance.com. Today on State of the World, a political dilemma for Israel's prime minister. You're listening to State of the World from NPR, the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Monday, February 3rd. I'm Greg Dixon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind. On the one hand, President Donald Trump wants the Gaza ceasefire to continue. On the other, Netanyahu's most important political partner is encouraging him to renew the war. And as NPR's Hadil al-Shalchi reports, the stakes couldn't be higher.

At a funeral procession for Israeli hostages killed in Gaza, one Israeli onlooker blames her country's leaders for prolonging the agony of those still captive there. All of the people who were in this government, they should be in prison. Sarit Shaman says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has one job. You're in charge. Fix it. Fix it. Bring back the remaining hostages from Gaza.

But that means extending a ceasefire with Hamas, something Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners oppose. Analysts say that the way Netanyahu is trying to solve Israel's current crisis reflects the way he sees himself.

Michael Oren is a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. He served under Netanyahu. He has a transformative role. He was born to accomplish something very specific, which was to save the state of Israel, and believes that nobody else is better qualified to do that. Oren says that while Netanyahu is often viewed abroad as militaristic and even a warmonger, at home, many see him as indecisive and conflict-averse. But

But after the shock of the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, Oren says Israelis feel like they have no other choice than the elder statesman, who is Israel's longest-serving prime minister. I hear this again and again. I can't stand him, but he's the only one who can stand up to pressures. And the pressures are great for Netanyahu, whose nickname is Bibi. A large part of Israelis will say that what Bibi cares about above all is staying in power. And by staying in power, maintaining his coalition and staying on the good side of Donald Trump.

Nadav Stauhler, a former advisor to the prime minister, has a name for this bind. I would call it the BB sandwich. Netanyahu's ability to stay in power faces a threat, spearheaded by far-right finance minister Betzalel Smotrich. He's a religious Jewish ultra-nationalist and ideologue. Smotrich wants the war to continue in Gaza to eradicate Hamas. He's also called for Israel to settle Gaza. First of all, we stayed in the government.

Smolchich says he's been promised to renew the war on Hamas. Otherwise, he will quit the government, collapsing Netanyahu's coalition.

Like many politicians in the game as long as Netanyahu, he's made political enemies, says former Ambassador Oren. What he has done is eliminate political rivals, especially with his own party. Oren says Netanyahu must now rely on his loyalists to stay in power, the far right and ultra-religious. That puts Netanyahu in a difficult position as he contemplates extending the ceasefire to a second phase.

Former Netanyahu advisor Stauchler. He understood that if he goes to phase two, as we know it, to finish the war, this is something that might finish his coalition.

And Stauchler says Netanyahu needs to keep his coalition intact if he wants to achieve his ultimate goals. Eliminate the Iranian threat. Netanyahu wants to bring another peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. His legacy is at stake. And on the other hand, Oren says Netanyahu needs to keep President Donald Trump happy. Donald Trump appreciates loyalty. Bibi and his government, the State of Israel, are loyal. It's vital. It's vital for something as basic as ammunition supplies.

Trump has said he will defer to whatever Israel wants to do once the first phase of the deal is over. But he signaled that he wants an end to the war and a return of all the hostages. So what main principle will guide Netanyahu in deciding which direction to take?

Alon Pinkas is a former Israeli diplomat who served under Israeli Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres. He says Netanyahu is after one thing. He's worried about political survival. Netanyahu is currently on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. If convicted, he could face prison. He has no political life expectancy outside the Prime Minister's office. That bleak future would be in stark contrast to the vision he set out for himself during an interview in 2017,

when he was asked, What's the legacy? This is what I left behind. Netanyahu did not hesitate. The protector of Israel? He said in this region, the weak don't survive. What I want to do is safeguard and ensure the future of Israel. A future of Israel in which he's always leader. Hadil Al-Shalchi, NPR News, Tel Aviv. That's the state of the world from NPR. Thanks for listening.

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