cover of episode India Sees Opportunity in U.S. Tariffs

India Sees Opportunity in U.S. Tariffs

2025/3/12
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Greg Dixon: 美国对华征收高额关税,为印度吸引中国制造商提供了机遇。然而,印度也面临着自身可能受到美国关税影响的风险。这种风险会阻碍印度吸引更多制造业,并使其向美国出口商品的成本增加,对本已疲软的印度经济造成进一步打击。 美国对中国商品的进口关税已达20%,这使得中国商品对美国消费者的价格上涨。印度希望利用这一机会吸引中国制造商,但同时需要避免自身也成为美国关税的目标。这是一个挑战,因为如果印度也受到美国关税的影响,那么吸引中国制造商的努力将受到严重阻碍,印度经济也将面临更大的压力。 Arvind Subramanian: 印度总理莫迪利用美国对华关税的时机,积极鼓励企业将制造业从中国转移到印度。虽然印度的工资水平相对较低,但这为许多印度女性提供了改变生活的机会,对就业增长具有积极意义。然而,特朗普政府对印度征收的额外关税,对印度吸引更多制造业和出口商品到美国(印度最大的市场)带来了显著的负面影响,这无疑对印度经济复苏造成了阻碍。 印度希望通过吸引中国制造商来从美国对华关税中获益。莫迪政府积极推动这一战略,鼓励企业将生产线转移到印度。虽然低工资对印度工人来说是积极的,但美国对印度商品的额外关税削弱了印度的竞争力,并对印度经济复苏构成威胁。这种关税政策使得印度向美国出口商品的成本增加,对印度经济复苏造成了严重的负面影响。

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This message comes from ICF. Working with government and industry to power energy innovation, advance health outcomes, and leverage technology and AI for mission success. Let's build a more resilient world. Start at ICF.com. Today on State of the World, India sees U.S. tariffs as an opportunity.

You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We're the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. In the last few weeks, the Trump administration has enacted new tariffs against Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and more.

The U.S. tariffs on imports from China is now at 20%. And India sees that as an opportunity to lure away manufacturers from China as the cost of their goods gets more expensive for U.S. consumers. But can India do that without being on the receiving end of U.S. tariffs themselves?

NPR's Dia Hadid tells us about India's manufacturing optimism. An advertisement shows a woman watching a cricket match on her Apple iPhone in a yellow and black auto rickshaw that bounces on jutted roads. You really can't get more Indian than that. And in some ways, it reflects India's hopes of expanding Apple's presence here.

Around 15% of all iPhones are assembled in India, and officials hope to double that within a few years.

Apple started manufacturing here in 2017. It was big news. Apple has started manufacturing its flagship device in India. That move was largely seen as a way to loosen Apple's reliance on China, where most of the company's products are made. It created opportunities for India to take advantage of that, to get some investment here. Arvind Subramanian is a former economic advisor to the Indian government.

He says Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized on the opportunity to encourage businesses to shift their manufacturing to China. Now, with Trump in power again, India hopes to profit by luring more manufacturing to its shores. One of those places is Subramanian's home state, Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu has been better at exporting than other states. It's nestled in India's southern tip, has a distinct culture, language, music...

It's India's manufacturing powerhouse. It makes cars, clothes, solar panels, sneakers for Nike, Puma, Adidas. Consider this. Nearly half of all Indian women who work in factories work in Tamil Nadu. So it's no surprise that the state has already benefited from businesses seeking to shift from China. And a lot of those businesses are around the industrial town of Sri Parambidur.

like Foxconn, which assembles Apple iPhones. It's a busy place. Music blares from the shops. No, no!

Labor agencies dot the main road. On the stairwell of one agency, we meet Kirthana. She's only got one name. She is 21, thick braid over her shoulder, duffel bag at her feet. She came into town on the overnight bus to find work at Foxconn and got a job there right away through the employment agency. That was...

Very fast, huh? Kirtana isn't sure what job she'll do at Foxconn. But she'll make $170 a month, double what she was making at a clothes factory. Subramanian, the former economic advisor, says while those wages are low in the West, it's life-changing for women like Kirtana. And for that... I am unambiguously in favour of jobs.

manufacturing because you get many, many more women, especially getting jobs. But there's a key obstacle to Tamil Nadu and to India attracting more manufacturing from China. I was saved by God to make America great again. In early March, Trump imposed more tariffs on products coming in from China. That was expected, but he's also singled out India for its high tariffs.

And in his State of the Union address, Trump vowed that on the 2nd of April, reciprocal tariffs kick in. Reciprocal tariffs against India. The announcement came despite a last-minute dash by India's trade minister to Washington to try negotiate carve-outs.

Because if those tariffs come into force, they'll be a blow to India's hopes of attracting more manufacturing. And it will make it more expensive to export goods to the US, which is India's biggest market, at a time when the Indian economy is flagging and needs a hand up, not a punch down. Diya Hadid, NPR News, Sri Parambadur. That's the state of the world from NPR. Thanks for listening.

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