New German leader; Ukraine war toll
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This message comes from ICF. Working with government and industry to power energy innovation, advance health outcomes, and leverage technology and AI for mission success. Let's build a more resilient world. Start at ICF.com. Today on State of the World, the man poised to become Germany's new chancellor said the U.S. administration doesn't care about the fate of Europe.

And on the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, what has been the impact of the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War?

You're listening to State of the World from NPR, the day's most vital international stories, up close, where they're happening. It's Monday, February the 24th. I'm Tara Neal. It's three years since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In a moment, we'll hear from our Ukraine and Russia correspondents. But first, over 80% of German voters casted a ballot in Sunday's election, the most since reunification.

The far-right AfD party came in second place. But they won't hold power. The job of German Chancellor goes to lawyer and businessman Friedrich Merz of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union. NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz reports. At a late-night victory party in Berlin, Germany's next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told supporters to celebrate now because starting the next day, they'll need to get to work.

Merz says he wants to form a coalition government by mid-April, which for Germany is lightning fast. The world out there, said Merz, won't wait for Germany. It does not have time for lengthy coalition negotiations. We need to start governing so that we can do the right thing, both at home and abroad.

and in Europe. For the past four years, the three-party coalition government of Olaf Scholz moved slowly, often squabbling among itself over how to support Ukraine without angering Russia, or how to stimulate the economy without taking on debt. That argument ended up collapsing Scholz's government and led to yesterday's early election. And this election exposed a trend that mainstream politicians are trying to smother —

the rise in popularity of the Nationalist Far-Right Alternative for Germany Party, known by its German acronym, the AfD. The party is under state surveillance for the threat it poses to Germany's democracy, and its members routinely trivialize the Holocaust—

One out of every five Germans voted for the AfD. At the party's headquarters in Berlin, AfD co-chair Alice Weidel said her party's hand was outstretched, ready to govern with Merz's party to honor what she called the will of the people.

Later in the evening, though, on a German television program where all of the party's chancellor candidates were in the same room, Merz announced he would not govern with the AfD. And Weidel's tone suddenly changed. Merz said Weidel won't be able to form a stable coalition without us. He will face the consequences, she said, when he crashes and fails.

And then Merz shot back. The so-called alternative for Germany is not interested in real solutions, said Merz. The party thrives on problems and it has no interest in solving them. On the contrary, he continued...

The AFD is happy to see problems get worse. Merz also criticized what he called Elon Musk's meddling in the German election by supporting the AFD. My number one priority, said Merz, is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so we can become independent from the United States.

I never thought I'd say this, said Merz, but after Donald Trump's statements last week, it's clear the Americans don't care about the fate of Europe. Becoming independent from the United States will not be easy. It's going to require a costly overhaul of Germany's beleaguered military. And that will require Merz's government to relax Germany's debt break, a rule enshrined in Germany's constitution that prevents the government from running a budget deficit.

The other problem is the AFD. Merz's party will have to form what's called a grand coalition with the other centrist party in parliament, the Social Democrats. And the AFD will be waiting in the wings for them to make mistakes, says U.S. German Marshall Fund's Suda David-Wilp.

So the Grand Coalition will probably move toward the right to address voter concerns such as migration and also a slowing German economy. And to address that, she says, Merz will need more money than his budget may allow to bring the country's lackluster infrastructure, defense and industry back up to speed.

Rob Schmitz, NPR News, Berlin. It's three years since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, nearly every day, Russian drones and missiles have hit Ukraine, striking military targets, but also power plants, hospitals, schools and homes.

Ukraine has responded with a growing number of attacks, with its own drones striking energy targets on Russian soil. Meanwhile, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has come with vows to negotiate a quick end to the conflict, but on whose terms remains a source of intense speculation. NPR's Joanna Kakisis in Kiev and NPR's Russia correspondent Charles Maines have been talking to Morning Edition's Leila Fadl. Joanna, let's start with you. What is life in Ukraine like now?

Well, Leila, on the surface, it looks normal here. People going to work, kids going to school, shops and restaurants are busy. And a majority of Ukrainians keep saying they want to keep defending the country until Russian troops are forced out of occupied land. But under that steeliness, under that normalcy, there is a deep unspoken stress.

Russian attacks are part of daily and nightly life here. This weekend, Ukraine says Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war, more than 260 drones in one night. We heard two hours of explosions as Ukrainian air defense tried to shoot these down. And, Leila, there is also collective grief here. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died

have been wounded or killed. Here in Kyiv, we spoke to Marina Burtyk. She is a 47-year-old housekeeper, and her husband, Mykola, was killed last year on the front line defending eastern Ukraine. She told us she does not want his loss to have been in vain. When my husband was killed, when there are so many deaths, many missing, you think, was it necessary?

Maybe it was my pain that broke me, but the fact that Ukraine has to exist is 100% for me.

Maybe it will be smaller in size, but we will be just as strong in spirit. Now, Leila, a growing number of Ukrainians say they would consider giving up territory in exchange for peace. But for soldiers or for those who have lost loved ones, this is a bitter pill. Yeah, of course. Charles, same question to you. How does the conflict look to Russian eyes at the three-year mark?

Well, I think it's important to remember that officially the Kremlin still calls this a special military operation. That's implying a limited intervention when clearly that's not the case. For some time now, this has been a war of attrition with Russia holding the upper hand in men and materiel. Now, Russian troops have made steady advances much of the past year. But to put that in some perspective, those territorial gains were still relatively small and they've come with enormous losses.

When it all started, it was a real pressure.

So here she says the war really weighed on her initially, and so she stopped watching the news altogether. She told me she wants peace, but she also recognizes there's nothing she can do to make it happen. So you're both describing this fatigue three years in, and now there's the U.S. President Trump factor.

Charles, how has his move to normalize relations with Russia changed the prospects for ending the war on Russia's terms? Well, over the weekend, the Kremlin spokesman called Trump's efforts promising, and you can see why. For three years, the Biden White House sought to isolate and sanction Russia over its invasion. By contrast, here comes President Trump. He's reached out to Moscow to work together to end the war.

There was that lengthy phone call with Vladimir Putin, then this high-level meeting between U.S. and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian or European allies invited, I might add. And Russia came out of those talks saying they really felt as though someone in Washington understood, finally was really listening when it came to their security concerns about Ukraine and about NATO expansion. And that's opened a path towards more negotiations aimed not only at ending the war, but normalizing relations more generally.

So Russia feeling heard and maybe empowered. Joanna, how has the about-face by the U.S. changed how Ukraine views its prospects? Yeah, well, Leila, it sent many Ukrainians into doomsday mode because the U.S. has been Ukraine's most important single ally. President Zelensky has tried to stay optimistic, even as President Trump has attacked Zelensky personally, calling him a dictator and repeating Kremlin talking points, spewing

Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Zelensky said he did not mind what was said about him, that he would keep trying to negotiate a good deal for Ukraine, even if it means leaving his job. If peaceful Ukraine requires me to step down, then I'm ready. I could also trade my position for NATO membership for Ukraine if that's what it takes.

Now, Leila, both the Kremlin and the Trump administration oppose NATO membership for Ukraine, so Zelensky's offer likely won't work. Charles, what are you watching for from Russia as negotiations to end the war move forward? Well, if we look at the U.S.-Russian track, I think the contours of any negotiated peace are really anybody's guess. Trump's Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said it'll be a solution, quote, acceptable to all sides. But President Trump's

But President Trump, you know, he's gone on record ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine. He's also said the possibility of Ukraine regaining its lost territory is unlikely. In effect, critics say, bowing to two key Russian demands before negotiations ever began. And amid all this, the Kremlin seems to be hardening its stance. It insists it will never relinquish any territory seized from Ukraine, just as it has ruled out any peacekeeping force from European NATO member countries that could provide some kind of security guarantee to Kyiv.

So you can't help but get the feeling, at least so far, that Russia is using Trump's rush to get a ceasefire in place to its own benefit. And Joanna, what's Ukraine looking for in these negotiations?

Well, President Zelensky says he wants a fair and just peace for Ukraine, but Ukraine cannot protect itself without allies. Zelensky continues to work with the Trump administration on a deal that would give the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars of Ukraine's critical raw materials in exchange for security guarantees. Today, he's welcoming a dozen world leaders to the Capitol to mark three years of Russia's full-scale war. And among them are European Union leaders who see Russia as a threat to

not only to Ukraine, but to all of Europe. Charles, Joanna, you've both covered this since the beginning from the two very different sides. Any person or moment that's basically stuck with you through it all? Charles, I'll start with you.

Well, you know, at the beginning of the war, I was down in southern Russia near the border spending time with Russian nationalists. These are Cossacks who were very much in favor of the invasion. But in their quieter moments, they would admit that they thought that Russia could do more to improve life at home before trying to improve, say, life in the Donbass. And Joanna?

Well, also in the first year of the war, I met the citizens of Kherson in the south, a city in the south who risked their lives to sabotage Russian soldiers occupying them. And they forced them out. And it speaks to how determined the Ukrainians are. NPR's international correspondents, Joanna Kakissis and Charles Mainz. That's the state of the world from NPR. Thanks for listening.

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