What Does the Israel-Iran War Mean for the Middle East?
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Today on State of the World, what does the Israel-Iran war mean for the Middle East?

You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Friday, June 20th. I'm Greg Dixon. Israel and Iran continue to fire missiles at each other. Israeli officials say several people were injured on Friday as around 20 missiles were launched at them from Iran. They impacted Tel Aviv, among other places, causing people there to seek shelter in bunkers.

And the Israeli military says it struck nuclear, missile, and government sites in Iran. Many Iranians are trying to flee the capital, Tehran. Others have chosen to stay and risk Israeli strikes. In a few minutes, we'll hear from Iranians making that difficult decision. The missile barrages came on the same day that representatives from Europe and Iran met in Geneva in hopes of calming the situation and avoiding further escalation.

That meeting ended without any breakthroughs announced. This ongoing war will have lasting impacts in a region over which Iran once commanded a huge amount of influence. Iran funded and armed militias and forces in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, and Iraq. Israel has spent the last couple of years attacking and weakening those proxy groups, and now Israel is attacking Iran directly.

To understand how the countries in the Middle East are reacting to this war, we're going to hear from journalist Kim Gattas. She has covered the Middle East for decades and is the author of Black Wave, a book about the long rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

She's in Beirut, and she spoke to NPR's Leila Fadl. Now, Kim, we haven't seen a major reaction from Iran's allies or proxies. I assume in part because they're not capable or fully gone, like Bashar al-Assad in Syria. You're in Lebanon. Where is Hezbollah in all this, one of Iran's most powerful proxies until it was severely decimated by Israeli attacks in the past year?

As you say, Laila, Hezbollah has been severely incapacitated by Israeli attacks last year, attacks which continue to this day. There are still regular strikes, Israeli strikes against southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley, and just two weeks ago, one in Beirut.

I think Hezbollah is wary of getting involved because it knows that the Israeli reaction will be devastating for Lebanon. It's been made very clear to Hezbollah that they should stay out of it. That's been the message from U.S. officials who visited Lebanon, from the Lebanese government as well, and the Lebanese president.

Their way of saving face for Hezbollah after all this time saying that they're, you know, the vanguard of defending Iran is to say Iran doesn't need our help at the moment. And indeed, you could argue that Iran's missiles are doing enough damage in Israel as it is. Where do other countries stand in this conflict and what do they want to see happen? I'm thinking of Jordan, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, which is also a regional powerhouse.

Everyone is very worried about the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu knows how to start wars, doesn't have a plan for how they end, nor for the day after. And we've seen that with Gaza. And they've become very frustrated, particularly countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who've constantly extended their hand to Israel. The UAE has the Abraham Accords with Israel. They're frustrated by

Benjamin Netanyahu's repeated continuous efforts to violently reshape the region. Obviously, they have no real love lost for Iran. They're probably quietly satisfied that its military commanders, ballistic missiles, nuclear program is taking a hit.

But they're also incredibly worried about the chaos this could provoke in the region and the fact, as I said, that Bibi doesn't have a plan for the day after. I think they're also surprised.

by President Trump's decision to go along with Benjamin Netanyahu, either for a while already or in the last week before the strike started, because that was not the mood barely a few weeks ago when President Trump visited Saudi Arabia and all the talk was about

you know, building hotels and, you know, doing business deals. They did not want this war, and they're certainly working the phones very hard to make that message, make that case to President Trump. I mean, as you point out, there's no love lost between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, but you say they fear this deep stabilization and violence. Are there hopes in these European talks with Iran? Is this something regional leaders support? Regional leaders absolutely support negotiations,

They want this campaign to come to a close fairly soon. Again, keeping in consideration sort of the pragmatic look at the positives of such a decapitation campaign against Iran's military capabilities, but it needs to wrap up. And I'm being very pragmatic, and we must point out that civilians are dying in Iran as well. Israeli strikes are not only...

going against military or nuclear targets. But they're also worried about being collateral damage. If this goes on for too long, Iran could potentially, as a last resort, lash out against U.S. military forces in the region, and those are positioned in Gulf countries all around the region. Kim Rattas is a journalist, a contributing writer to the Financial Times, and she joined us from Beirut. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. And she spoke with Leila Fadal.

For those Iranian civilians just mentioned, particularly residents of the capital, Tehran, there's a difficult choice. Stay or go. President Trump earlier this week said on social media, quote, everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran. And the continued bombardments are only heightening anxiety.

NPR's Jackie Northam brings us the voices of some Iranian civilians wrestling with what to do. There has been a near total internet blackout across Iran for the past couple of days. Still, an NPR translator was able to contact three people there to talk about life while under Israeli attack. All of them asked that we not use their full names out of fear of retribution by the Iranian regime for speaking to foreign media.

The three displayed a sense of resignation and anger and even some flashes of gallows humor. Mede, a 28-year-old software engineer, describes the chaos of trying to get out of Tehran for the suburb of Karcak earlier this week. I heard a loud explosion a quarter of a mile away. My car battery had died.

I was standing still right in the middle of chaos of ambulances and people rushing about while I waited for car assistance to come and replace my car battery. Mete says he didn't hear any sirens before or after the explosion. That's because there aren't any, says Siavash, a 38-year-old painter living in Tehran. He laughs mockingly when the government tries to tell Iranians that Israelis have sirens because they're scared of Iranian missiles. If they make sirens, they'll be scared.

But we are not scared. That's why we don't have sirens. They said that on Iranian TV channels. They're making fun of Israelis for obeying safety protocols.

They hide in the shelters, but our people go to the roof and watch. Siavash has chosen not to leave Tehran to escape Israeli missiles, despite warnings a few days ago from President Trump to evacuate. I saw my neighbor today, and he told me the sky has the same color wherever you go. They hit everywhere. How long can you run? We can take three or four days, but for more than a week?

We are not financially prepared for this. Siavash's friend Yasser, a 35-year-old personal trainer, doesn't want to stay in Tehran, but has little option. Tehran is quiet and silent and it's crazy, but I couldn't convince my mom and my family to leave. They decided to stay in one place altogether.

At least we can all die together. Yasser says whatever happens is out of his hands. If a bomb doesn't hit me now, it may hit tomorrow. So let it finish the job now. But Mehdi, the software engineer, says Iran is a vast country and the possibility of a missile hitting an apartment is low. For example, the 20 missiles that hit every day destroy a maximum of 20 flats and residential apartments.

There are one to two million residential apartments. Statistically, the chance of getting hit by a missile in one week is one in 400,000. Even if his math doesn't add up, the odds become shorter the longer this war drags on. Jackie Northam, NPR News. That's the state of the world from NPR. Thanks for listening.

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