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cover of episode 2024 analysed: Xi Jinping's year

2024 analysed: Xi Jinping's year

2024/12/31
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World in 10

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Steve Tsang: 习近平认为2024年是充满挑战的一年,但最终结果并未削弱其领导地位。挑战包括中东地区动荡、与美国持续的贸易战以及欧盟对中国电动汽车征收高额关税等。 然而,中国也利用加沙战争的机会,通过坚定支持巴勒斯坦和哈马斯,成功拓展了在全球南方地区的影响力。美国大选结果虽然对中国来说略显失望(特朗普当选),但情况本可能更糟(若哈里斯当选)。乌克兰战争向有利于俄罗斯的方向发展,也符合中国的利益。 中国经济面临的挑战更多是国内问题,而非单纯的经济问题,与西方民主国家的紧张关系加剧了这些挑战。虽然与美国的贸易战是严重的关切,但中国不认为特朗普会将关税提高到60%的极端水平。中国正积极争取欧盟等其他国家合作,共同应对特朗普可能实施的新关税制度。 习近平对台湾的策略发生了转变,将收复台湾视为其“中国梦”的重要组成部分,并设定了时间表(最迟2050年)。虽然中国正在为可能的攻台做准备,包括军事演习和导弹试射,但这并不意味着短期内会采取行动,因为解放军尚未做好充分准备。习近平是一位冒险者,但并非鲁莽,在解放军做好准备之前不会贸然攻台。近期对军事领导层的调整也表明,短期内不太可能攻台。 对习近平而言,全球南方比西方民主国家更重要,他更关注在全球南方地区发展友好关系和伙伴关系。他访问欧洲时,主要针对的是那些更愿意与中国合作的国家。 习近平2025年的主要目标是稳定和振兴经济,并与其他国家形成联盟以应对特朗普可能发起的贸易战。此外,他还将继续进行内部整合,包括反腐行动等例行工作。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were Xi Jinping's key international engagements in 2024?

Xi Jinping made a significant trip to Europe in May 2024, visiting France, Hungary, and Serbia. He also hosted Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban in Beijing, focusing on strengthening ties with countries more willing to engage with China.

How did China's stance on the Gaza war impact its global influence?

China abandoned its longstanding strategic partnership with Israel and firmly supported the Palestinian people and Hamas. This move enhanced China's reach and influence in the global south, aligning with its broader geopolitical strategy.

What is Xi Jinping's timeline for Taiwan, and how does it differ from previous Chinese leaders?

Xi Jinping has set a definitive timeline for Taiwan's integration into China, aiming for 2050 at the latest. Unlike previous leaders who saw Taiwan as unfinished business without a timeframe, Xi views it as integral to his 'China Dream' of national rejuvenation.

How is the escalating trade war with the US affecting China's economy?

The trade war with the US, coupled with EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, has heightened economic concerns in China. Xi Jinping has acknowledged these challenges by releasing stimulus packages in September and November 2024, though domestic issues remain a significant factor.

What are Xi Jinping's priorities for 2025?

Xi Jinping aims to stabilize and revitalize China's economy, form a grand coalition to counter the US-led trade war, and continue internal consolidation efforts, including anti-corruption operations.

Why does Xi Jinping focus on the global south rather than the democratic West?

Xi Jinping prioritizes the global south because it aligns with China's strategic goals of cultivating friendships, support, and partnerships. The democratic West is seen as a complex mix of competition, rivalry, and cooperation, making the global south a more fruitful area for engagement.

Is China preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan?

While China is intensifying military preparations and exercises, an immediate invasion of Taiwan is unlikely. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is not yet ready to confront the US, and Xi Jinping, though a risk-taker, is not reckless. Long-term risks have increased, but short-term plans remain unchanged.

Chapters
Despite economic challenges and a looming trade war with the U.S., Xi Jinping's year was marked by strengthening ties with the Global South, particularly after abandoning Israel and supporting Palestine. The less-than-ideal outcome of the U.S. election, resulting in a Trump presidency instead of a Harris one, was seen as relatively positive from Beijing's perspective.
  • Xi Jinping's perspective on his year in power.
  • Challenges faced in the Middle East and China's strategic response.
  • China's engagement with the Global South and the impact of the U.S. election.

Shownotes Transcript

From a stuttering economy to an intensifying purge of the military, China’s president has faced many challenges in 2024. With a looming trade war with the United States and more clouds on the economic horizon, Professor Steve Tsang of the SOAS China Institute reflects on Xi Jinping’s year.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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