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cover of episode 2024 analysed: Zelensky's year

2024 analysed: Zelensky's year

2024/12/24
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World in 10

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Maxim Tucker: 2024年对泽连斯基来说是充满挑战的一年。尽管乌克兰军队对俄军造成了巨大伤亡,但俄罗斯仍在持续推进,乌克兰在兵力不足和西方军事援助延误的情况下难以抵挡俄军进攻。西方军事援助的延误导致乌克兰损失惨重,弹药短缺,不得不限制使用弹药,从而导致更多伤亡,并影响了反攻效果。尽管西方提供了先进武器,但数量不足以显著改变战场局势,这使得乌克兰感到沮丧。泽连斯基对俄罗斯境内库尔斯克地区的入侵行动并未取得预期的效果,未能对俄罗斯民众造成足够冲击,也未能获得足够的领土作为谈判筹码。 政治上,泽连斯基巩固了权力,但这同时也引发了对腐败问题和潜在权力交接的担忧。面对特朗普可能当选的局面,泽连斯基对和平谈判的态度发生了转变,从最初的排斥到积极寻求谈判,并愿意做出一些让步。乌克兰正在积极与特朗普进行接触,试图在可能的停火谈判中争取有利条件,但西方国家需要警惕俄罗斯违反停火协议的可能性。 叙利亚阿萨德政权的垮台以及俄罗斯经济持续疲软,为乌克兰带来了希望,但西方国家应坚持在俄罗斯军队完全撤出乌克兰领土之前不解除制裁。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What challenges has Zelensky faced in 2024?

Zelensky has faced manpower shortages, delays in Western military aid, territorial losses in the East, and restrictions on using the aid provided. Ukraine is also running low on manpower and ammunition, which has led to higher casualties and limited effectiveness in stopping Russian advances.

How has Zelensky's political position evolved in 2024?

Zelensky has consolidated his power by dismissing cabinet ministers and replacing them with loyalists, giving him more power than any president since Ukraine's independence. However, this has raised concerns about corruption and the need for a political reset if a ceasefire is reached.

What impact did the delay in US military aid have on Ukraine's war efforts?

The delay in delivering the $60 billion military aid package cost Ukraine many lives and put them at a disadvantage. Forces ran out of ammunition, limiting their ability to strike Russian advances, which allowed Russia to make creeping gains.

What was the outcome of Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory in Kursk?

Ukraine managed to hold onto some, but not all, of the territory gained. The incursion did not have the shock value Ukraine hoped for, as Putin controlled the narrative in Russian media. Only about a third of the territory remains under Ukrainian control.

How has Zelensky's stance on a possible peace settlement changed in 2024?

At the start of the year, Zelensky dismissed the idea of a negotiated peace, but by the end of 2024, he began actively discussing terms, such as offering NATO membership to parts of Ukraine not occupied by Russia, in response to the looming prospect of a Trump presidency.

What does the fall of the Assad regime in Syria mean for Ukraine?

The fall of Assad's regime shows that Russia is not as powerful as Putin portrays it to be. Russia's inability to support Syria indicates its limitations, which Ukraine sees as a sign that Putin's regime is weakening and that continued Western sanctions could further pressure Russia.

Shownotes Transcript

What has 2024 meant for Volodomyr Zelensky? The Times' Maxim Tucker joins us to assess the Ukrainian president's year.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

Watch more: www.youtube.com/@ListenToTimesRadio 

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