Can Ukraine survive without US military aid?
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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis, joined by Alex Dibble. Yes, another snap announcement by Donald Trump has left Ukraine and its European allies reeling. This time, the suspension of US military aid.

It leaves more questions than answers about the immediate future of the war and further, about whether the United States can be trusted by those allies at all. Our guest today is Major General Sir Richard Sheriff, someone who was able to take that trust as read during a decades-long career in the military, in which he became NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

So Richard, give us your immediate thoughts on Trump's move, please. Can Ukraine so much as hold the line without his support, let alone make any progress? Well, firstly, I'd say that there really hasn't been a surprise in the announcement that we woke up to this morning, because it's all of a piece with the events of the last 10 days, really, since Trump announced that he'd had a

90-minute phone call with Putin. And what it highlights is the extent to which Trump is now very firmly in Putin's camp, that America cannot be relied upon or trusted as an ally, and that the world order that we've had maintaining peace and stability and security in the transatlantic region for over 75 years is now broken.

So this is big stuff. As far as the immediate future in Ukraine is concerned, the Ukrainians are going to find it really tough because the spares for Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, the ammunition, the long range precision missiles, the HIMARS, the ATAKOMs, the Patriot air defence missiles that have been guarding Ukrainian cities are

Those are going to dry up and the Ukrainians are going to have to find an alternative. But having said all that, let's be clear that Russians are not 10 feet tall. They have been making glacial progress inch by inch. The Ukrainians have not broken and the Ukrainians have shown remarkable technical and battlefield ingenuity. The fact that they've effectively neutralized, defeated the Black Sea fleet without a navy.

the autonomous vehicles, the drones, the other capabilities that the Ukrainians have developed, all suggest, tell me, that Ukraine can hold on, but there's a big but. And the but is it depends on Europe and Canada doing what they can as quickly as they can to fill the gaps.

Before we come on to that specifically, can I just ask you about the West as a whole? Do you think this is the final straw for Europe in terms of treating the US as an ally? Is this relationship irreparable now? Over the long reach of time, the long span of time, it is not irreparable.

Wiser Americans three times in the 20th century recognized that America's security was Europe's security, and the two were intertwined. In 1917, when America belatedly joined the Allies in the First World War, 1941, and of course during the Cold War. But right now, we have to assume, as I said earlier, that America cannot be trusted as an ally,

that America has forfeited, abdicated its leadership of the free world. And with that leadership of the free world came responsibilities. Now we play a part in that abdication because we in Europe and Canada have had it too easy for too long. And we've sat back and spent our money on health, on welfare, and on social issues rather than investing in our protection and defense.

And America's had enough and the dam has broken. So we are in a new world. And I think we're in a new world where, frankly, NATO is held below the waterline. That must be quite tough to say as a military man and a NATO man who will have throughout your career, I'd imagine, relied on that common sense and friendship of the US. To what degree do you think it's possible for Europe to sort of separate from the US over at least the four year term of this president?

Yeah, you know, I was a soldier for 37 years or so. I served under command of Americans in war. I commanded Americans on operations and I worked incredibly closely with some really fine Americans at all stages. I have been a huge admirer of the American army, its values, its traditions and its quality.

So there's a sort of emotional element here of the parting of the ways, which is immeasurably sad. But we have to take the world as we find it, not as we'd like to find it. Trump's been in power now as president for what, just over a month. And look how much he's done already. The potential for him to continue to wreak havoc over the next four years is vast, not least, frankly, to American democracy.

But we've now got to recognise where we are and we've just got to get on and make the best of it and come up with new solutions and new ways of providing our own defence and security without America. Let's talk about Europe then. To what extent can it replace not just the cash but the quality of American weaponry, which is top tier, isn't it? Yeah, Europe is capable of producing top tier defence equipment.

Europe is rich. Europe has ingenuity. Europe has technical genius. So Europe and Canada can do it, but it's going to require sacrifice, leadership, will. On a practical level, it's going to require rationalizing of European defense industries.

And it's going to require us to really turn to and understand and make the sort of sacrifices that need to be made, because this is, you know, this is an existential crisis for Europe as it is for Ukraine. So if people are prepared to and are going to have to be prepared to dig deep, then Europe in time can do it. But it's going to take time as well.

And so, Richard, what about Russia now? Of course, Vladimir Putin will be cock-a-hoop looking at this. But equally, he'll know it could all change again at the whim of Donald Trump. It could be a small window of opportunity for him. So how might his on-the-ground tactics change immediately? Putin will be sitting rubbing his hands in glee at the moment and will absolutely be trying to make the most of the opportunity given.

He knows that the window of opportunity is there. He knows that Europe and Canada will try and close that window of opportunity as quickly as possible, or he should assume that is the case. So, yeah, he will go for it. But I think the other point is, of course, that he can, I suspect he can probably assume that

that Trump will not change his view of Russia, and that he will continue to be a fellow traveller with Russia, and that he will continue to be Putin's most useful idiot. On that basis, do you think it's even worth Ukraine trying to rebuild its relationship with the US? Yeah, I think it's important not to close off any opportunities.

Who knows, things may change. The final breach may not happen just yet. And this is something that I think leading European politicians, our own prime minister included, are not ruling out. But I think realistically, it's a forlorn hope.

Just finally then, Sir Richard, and the caveat to this is that we're aware if Trump about turns, so might your answer. But when do you think Trump might manage to force a peace in Ukraine, however fragile an agreement that might be when it arrives? Well, I don't think there's going to be a peace anytime soon because Putin is not and has not backed off one iota from his demands.

And his demands effectively mean the capitulation of Ukraine. What he wants is the annexation of the four provinces of eastern Ukraine. He wants the neutralization or the demilitarization of Ukraine. He wants its permanent neutralization and he wants a new government in Kiev, which will answer to him.

And once he's done that, we have to assume he will move on to other countries like Moldova, like Romania, like Georgia, which he's already started with electoral manipulation. And then when he sees that NATO is effectively neutralized or destroyed by what the Americans have done to it,

he will very likely have a go at the Baltic states, which brings us directly into the prospect of war between the remains of Europe in NATO and Russia. So I think we are in about as dangerous position as we could possibly be.

OK, Major General Sir Richard Sheriff, thank you for joining us. Europe is now scrambling to rearm, of course, although it was only last week that the UK pledged an increase in defence spending. You can hear about the impact of that at home and on the continent with military analyst Hamish de Breton-Gordon by going back to our episode from last Wednesday, the 25th of February. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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a game changer in tracking your health. Your diet score is personalized based on tracking key activities that deliver healthy habits, support weight loss, and deliver long-term sustainable success. The Mayo Clinic Diet was developed by doctors and dietitians from the world-renowned Mayo Clinic. It's real foods, no gimmicks or fad diets, just life-changing healthy nutrition.

Join today for access to customizable meal plans, tracking tools, group coaching, and at-home workouts. Everything you need for long-term success. Get your free diet score now at mayoclinicdiet.com slash go. No sign-up needed. Now, the Mayo Clinic Diet accepts the Care Credit credit card. The Mayo Clinic Diet. Healthy weight loss for life.