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cover of episode Europe’s hasty peacekeeping plan offers Ukraine hope

Europe’s hasty peacekeeping plan offers Ukraine hope

2025/2/17
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World in 10
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Jamie Shea
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Jamie Shea: 我认为在乌克兰部署维和部队面临诸多挑战。首先，和平协议可能非常脆弱，仅仅是停火而已。俄罗斯在乌克兰部署了大量军队，欧洲部队若要维持战线，将面临巨大挑战。冲突随时可能发生，欧洲盟友需要详细规划维和部队的任务、装备和参与方。欧洲应积极参与军事部署，明确自身需求，美国的支持至关重要。欧洲越展现出部署和平执行部队的意愿和能力，就越能向特朗普表明，没有他们的部队，任何协议都毫无价值。如果协议崩溃，特朗普将成为失败者，因此欧洲的参与至关重要，应被纳入和平谈判。即使表面上不是北约，实际运作仍将依赖北约的资源和体系。普京不希望乌克兰立即加入北约，但实际部署可能只是换个名称的北约行动。最终会采取一种策略，让普京声称这不是北约，但对乌克兰而言，这支部队的信誉将来自北约。对特朗普强硬反击会让他重新考虑，团结一致并巧妙利用影响力至关重要。欧洲增加国防开支需要调整预算，可能需要削减其他领域的支出。为了维持美国对北约的支持和自卫，欧洲人认为必须做出牺牲。增加国防开支可能需要回到过去的模式，并需要更多国家参与分摊负担。即使不参与军事行动，也应该在资金上提供支持。

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European nations are considering sending troops to Ukraine for a peacekeeping mission, prompted by recent US discussions. The feasibility of this plan is discussed, highlighting the complexities of establishing a peacekeeping force amidst a large Russian troop presence and the need for a detailed peace plan.
  • European nations are discussing sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
  • The meeting was hastily arranged following strong US statements.
  • The plan's success depends on a firm peace agreement and sufficient support, especially from the US.

Shownotes Transcript

Ukraine's future looks, increasingly, to be out of its own hands, with the US and Russia sending high-ranking officials for talks in Saudi Arabia about the end of the war - with Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisting he was not invited. But could European plans for boots on the ground - and a hasty and strong response to American rhetoric about the continent - provide Ukraine with some hope? Former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO. Jamie Shea, analyses what might push Donald Trump in one direction or another.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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