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Frontline special - global affairs analyst Michael Bociurkiw

2025/2/15
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That's K-I-N-S-T-A dot com slash podcast. Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble and I executive produce the podcast.

The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full. Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting.

Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio with me Kate Chabot and today we're talking to a Ukraine-based global affairs analyst with more than two decades experience in humanitarian work and international journalism. Michael Bosiorku is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been a spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He's also an author and a regular commentator for many international media outlets.

Michael, great to see you again on Frontline. And we are speaking before any statements come out of the NATO defence ministers meeting. We're speaking on Thursday around 12 o'clock UK time. But before that meeting actually started, the NATO Secretary General was asked, is this a betrayal of Ukraine? He'd said no decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. And since then, Donald Trump spoke to Putin...

without and before President Zelensky about Ukraine. His defense secretary said no NATO membership and no return to the 2014 borders could be expected, so give up land. Is Ukraine being thrown under the bus? 100% thrown under the bus, 100% betrayal. I mean, when you...

play your hand when you tell the Russians this is what you're going to demand of Ukraine and when you offer them everything they've been asking for as you enumerated especially Ukraine giving up the NATO bid no pre-2014 borders going back to that

and also a pretty strong signal that there's no way the United States will send boots on the ground here. That's a betrayal, and I can literally see it on the faces of people around me here in Kyiv this day. They had really put their stock into following basically the rules-based international order. If we do things the right way, then things are going to work out to us in the long term.

People will have our backs, especially the United States. It was assumed here by now, Kate, that if Ukraine did things like weed out corruption, fight as hard as possible, that the United States would continue to arm them. And they had thought that it was well understood in capitals, especially in Washington, that if Mr. Putin is not pushed back, he will go further.

But having said all that, this may be a discussion with a lot of having said all that, I think we are headed into a completely new uncharted territory where Mr. Trump will be acting very hemispherically. Hence, he will go after whatever he can resource-wise, whatever, in the Western Hemisphere.

leave this region up to his buddy autocrat, Mr. Putin, in the Pacific, up to Mr. Xi Jinping. Of course, a big test there would be whether if Mr. Xi goes for Taiwan, whether the United States will be there. But it is not looking good. And you can see that also, I think, in the faces of the leaders at NATO. But one more thing, if I can, is that...

This should come as no surprise. They were warned about this. Most of them were leaders during Trump 1.0, and that's what was repeated time after time. If you don't boost your defense spending, then we're going to withdraw. We're not going to be behind your back. So

Yeah, it's a head-spinning number of events, but I think that's where we are right now. Yeah, and you said that you can see it on the face of the people in Kiev. Can you tell me a little bit more about what they've said to you? Yeah, well, let me put this into perspective for you. So less than 24 hours ago, the White House press secretary, Caroline Leavitt, said with a straight face, I just talked to my boss, Mr. Trump, and he said that Mr. Putin is a man of peace.

Just a few minutes after that, literally, air raid sirens started going off a little bit here, but more so in Odessa. And in that period, well over 100 Russian drones were sent to the Odessa region.

And some of them actually ruined port infrastructure on the Danube River. It's kind of the secondary port for Odessa where smaller ships can go pick up grain and deliver them to ports that can handle the bigger ships. And by the way, it's also a port that has been heavily, heavily subsidized by USAID until a few days ago.

It almost seems like a deliberate attack, but the main point I wanted to make here, these are not the actions of a man who is thinking peace on his way to a negotiating table.

Yes. And those attacks on Kiev, ballistic missiles, among other things, and drones. What was the experience like for the city? You were there at the time. Yeah. Two nights ago. Very, very loud. It was a mix. I described it as a tsunami of drones and ballistic missiles.

And I believe at one time there was about four or five simultaneous fires here reported by the mayor of Kiev, Mr. Klitschko. So it was a very, very scary night. And with the exception of last night, it's a daily occurrence here in Kiev. And it really, really wears people down here. They're not able to sleep. They have to go to bomb shelters. I mean, imagine how difficult it is for children having to go to school the next day.

But this is their way of operating and we're in the midst of a prolonged cold stop right now and it is feared that the Russians will attack power stations as they did before. And if I can add another layer of reality to you because of the recent USAID cuts

There are, as we speak, transformers paid for by the United States taxpayer sitting on trains, not going anywhere near the border that were supposed to come here and to replace the transformers damaged by Russian bombing. So there's a lot of different bits here on the move that are obviously and understandably causing a lot of concern.

Yeah, I want to ask you a little bit more later on about the cutting of the USAID funding for Ukraine, how it's affecting it more broadly throughout the country in a moment. You mentioned Odessa before, and I was looking at some of your social media posts before we had this conversation, and you had an experience, your adoptive home, Port City. You had an experience of what you described as one of the most

saddest day for the city in recent, at the end of January. Can you describe what happened? Sure, sure. So there was two, possibly three hypersonic missiles launched towards Odessa, the central business district. I was there when that happened. I was about two blocks away from the impact site. And the impact site was the iconic, historic Bristol Hotel building

I don't know if you have American viewers, but basically our version of the Beverly Hills Hotel or London's version of the Strand Hotel. It's where a lot of VIPs go. International conferences are held there because they have a subterranean basement. And it's also a UNESCO protected heritage area.

We're not sure why they chose the Bristol Hotel. Of course, it did hit confidence for sure. But there were diplomats there at the time, I believe two from Norway. And it was rumored that the head of Ukrainian military intelligence was there at the time. The government, of course, hasn't confirmed that.

But there must have been something else that motivated them to send a missile directly into that hotel. It doesn't look like it'll ever open again. But as for me, going, you know, us who have journalism or blood, we run towards the fire. I rushed there immediately or as soon as I could. A lot of broken glass, a lot of.

You would have expected a lot more carnage, but there were only injuries coming out of that. But for me, it was the crossing of a red line because this is a place where we would go almost on a daily basis. It's where we met our friends. As I mentioned, we go to conferences. And the feeling there, not only amongst people like myself who are kind of temporary residents, but longtime residents there, is that...

Nowhere safe anymore. This is just becoming too random. And the fact that these missiles arrived just seconds after the air raid sirens went off, you had no chance to hide, to run. So very, very scary indeed. And we all know that...

You know, I read the various think tank studies as well that the Russians have a huge stockpile. They're ramping up their defense capabilities. They're way, way ahead of spending in terms of European countries. So they have a lot of gunpowder still to expend here in Ukraine. But kind of the main point again here is that a huge blow to confidence for us all. It's very, very sad.

Yeah. And the statement by Donald Trump was that they're going to start talking about, well, approaching the whole subject of negotiations immediately. I mean, do you think there can be any negotiations done in good faith with President Putin? No, absolutely not. Because I know from you introduced me as part of the OSCE here in 2014, 2016. And we had many negotiations with the Russian side or with Russian backed thugs.

and they were routinely broken. In fact, the New York Times wrote about one of our side missions on the Russian border where we had personnel, brave personnel stationed right on the Russian side of the Ukraine-Russia border at the time. And the Russians would do everything they could to obscure their vision and, you know, hinder their capability to record what was going on. This was an unarmed observation mission. The Minsk agreements they violated routinely.

when during earlier in this current phase of the war where there were evacuation routes agreed to by both sides, the Russians will go ahead and bomb them. So how can you trust anyone like that, someone who has so much blood on their hands from bombing maternity hospitals, children's hospitals, schools, the list goes on and on and on.

But I think Mr. Putin is eager to sit down with Mr. Trump because he knows he can play him. And as I'm probably saying this a bit too often on broadcast media, but I don't think there's a floor to Mr. Trump's subservience to Mr. Putin. It's like he admires this guy. He admires thugs. He's now dealing with Maduro in Venezuela, for heaven's sake, and making deals with him. So...

at the end of the day, this is not going to work out well for the Ukrainians or for European security for that matter. Yeah. And to that point, the conversation that he had is being portrayed as having obliterated the European position on Ukraine as the biggest fork in the road in transatlantic relationships. Do you see it that way as well? It is a fork in the road. The United States is going to

Well, let me rephrase that. The United States is expected to turn itself more inward and deal with a myriad of its own problems. But I kind of couched that in careful terms because what the heck is Mr. Trump doing messing around with Gaza and wanting to turn it into a holiday strip or a resort?

development site for his own hotel so uh there's you know the nice thing kate about uh having no ideology like mr trump is you can be a man of contradictions you can say one thing one day and then another thing the next day and he also seems like someone who spouts off whatever the person before has whispered into his ear but going back to this relationship um again the europeans shouldn't be surprised they should have seen this coming and you know i wish um

I wish, for example, leaders in the United Kingdom at the time would have listened to our colleague Victor Mallet of the Financial Times. He said on one of my panels, I think it was a couple of years ago, that Brits need to be told that we need to go on a war footing. This is a wartime economy because there's no choice the way things are going. And boy, was he right. And I think everyone in Europe needs to be told that as well because we

One more quick thing, of course, is that in the United Kingdom, like many European countries, they're really struggling domestically with things like housing, with the migrant crisis, with keeping their health systems, with paying pensions. So there's very, very little wiggle room to boost defense spending beyond the average of 2% or 3%.

And President Putin will see the conversation he had with Donald Trump, the 90-minute conversation or so, as a triumph. He's back on the world stage. He'll be watching how Trump handles Gaza, though you mentioned it, because the danger is Putin's hubris that if he overplays his hand, Trump could have an all-hell-breaks-loose moment with him still. Yeah. You know, I was in Jordan about a little over a year ago now,

And I know the situation there very well. It's a very, very fragile economy, a very, very fragile state. And as you know, they have hundreds of thousands, well, easily a million plus Palestinians there, including ones who left Gaza a long time ago. And if you watch that very bizarre and prompt press con press caggle in the Oval Office two or three days ago with

King Abdullah there of Jordan sitting next to Mr. Trump and Mr. Trump clearly humiliating him, embarrassing him, putting him in a very tough spot, saying you are going to take Gaza residents and so is Mr. Sisi of Egypt. And Mr. Sorry, King Abdullah has made it clear that that's a red line and that they can't handle anymore.

But, you know, this is what I call Mr. Trump's brand of schoolyard bully diplomacy. If I want something, I'm going to get it. I don't care what kind of position it's going to put you in. But having said that, when you talk about the situation with President Putin, do you believe a thing stands? He's actually giving in to him and at least what he's saying. Or do you think he's only saying what he wants to be heard by Putin right now?

It's really hard to get into the head of Mr. Trump as it is hard to get into the head of Mr. Putin. But I think we know Mr. Putin a little bit better, his entire history going back to his days as a KGB spy chief. And it is believed that Mr. Putin has studied Mr. Trump, knows his ways and knows how to play him. And yes, I think Mr. Trump is...

is eager to prove that he was right, that, you know, I'm going to get a peace deal for Ukraine. Well, first, he said within 24 hours of being inaugurated. Now, I think it's first 100 days, something like that. But he's rolling the dice. He doesn't know what the outcome of this will be. And in the meantime, it's causing a lot of uncertainty. Katie, if I can, let me give you a worst case scenario, because I think we are in a very, very scary vacuum right now.

is when you're in a situation where there are so few red lines, when it's not clear whether the United States will act on behalf of European security, NATO or Ukraine, it seems to me that it would be a perfect time for a crazed guy like Mr. Putin to test NATO's Article 5 strategy.

to make a strike perhaps in one of the Baltic countries or God forbid Poland and see whether there is a collective response because this is a character that loves to prod for soft tissue. He does that all the time.

And that's why it's a very, very worrisome time. No one knows the Russian mind better than the Ukrainians. And I see it on their faces here, the worry of what might happen next. It's really interesting because do you think that people in Western Europe really get it in terms of...

because geographically they're just further away from the threat. Because, you know, you talk about the testing of the Article 5 and there's the comments made by the assessment by the Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service this week, warning that Europe could face a large scale war with Russia within five years. Do you think that's possible or likely? And what do you think needs to be done to prevent that or to send the deterrent that's needed to stop that from happening?

Well, the second part of your question is a lot more difficult. But, you know, I think that, you know, the Europeans have to come to the realization that, you know,

We are in a free fall right now when it comes to the rules-based international order. If you don't have a kind of global policeman like the United States protecting this whole ecosystem and pushing back the bad guys, it seems they're almost welcoming them on the red carpet instead, that that gives them the opportunity or the temptation, if you will, to test it out and to go further.

In terms of stopping Mr. Putin, it's very, very difficult to say. We know that sanctions have had limited effect. I was recently in India, and I know that they're in no hurry to punish Mr. Putin in any way and starve him of revenue by not purchasing his oil or his arms. There are a lot of countries in the world that would like to do business with Russia. So we have, let me put it this way, I think,

as a Western alliance, if we can call it that still. Very, very few tools in the tool shed to fight back Mr. Putin. I think, sad to say, I think the best hope we have is for some domestic opposition to rise up or for the...

oligarchs around Mr. Putin or even some military leaders, intelligence leaders to say enough is enough. This has gone too far. But no one expects that to happen anytime soon, especially after what happened to the late Wagner leader, Mr. Prokosian.

And in terms of immediate European security and starting that in Ukraine, when it does come to a ceasefire, in terms of peacekeeping troops, Peter Hegseth, the new US Defence Secretary, said that European NATO partners would be responsible for backing up any peace.

What about the concept of having French Polish troops, not the US, but perhaps US air cover bolstering, bolstered by British? I mean, what kind of deterrent can that provide? And is that going to be enough to stop any designs of probing Article 5 elsewhere within Europe?

Yeah, I mean, I think things are happening at warp speed and leaders in all of the capitals in Europe are trying to get their act together and see what can be done. I think that, however, when it comes to a peacekeeping force, whatever we're going to call it,

From my experience with the OSCE, these are very, very expensive, complex operations to mount. And if Mr. Zelensky gets his way, wants 200,000, there's no way Europe can supply that. They'll have to go to other allied countries to provide that kind of peacekeeping force. But we're waiting to see, of course, what happens in the elections in Germany, I believe next month.

where the presumed next leader has promised powerful missiles for Ukraine. The other thing I should mention is, at least here in Ukraine, I think people are waking up to the reality that we can't rely very much any longer on traditional allies. So that's why they're working very quickly here, for example, to ramp up their drone technology, and they've done a fantastic job there.

striking deep into Russia and at Russian boats on the Black Sea, that sort of thing. So the Europeans are very, very impressed with what's happened here in Ukraine. So I think there'll be even more of a kind of acceleration of that, helping the Ukrainians boost domestic production so they can play more of a, I guess, kind of independent hand in this.

Just interested to know what you think where all of this discussion or what's been said in the last 24 hours, at least President Zelensky, because he's already given an interview in which he suggested trading land in Kursk Oblast in Russia for Russian occupied land in Ukraine. And he also offered he has offered U.S. access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine, return for military support. Is that something do you think that is still a viable bargaining position, given what's been said?

No, I don't. I think, without due respect to Mr. Zelensky and his circle, that they might have even overplayed their hand, that they're looking like a party which is desperate, which doesn't work very well if you're headed to the negotiation table.

The thing about the rare earth minerals has been vastly overblown because from my research about this, it takes a long, long time to get these minerals, to get these things out of the earth.

Let's also remember that a lot of this is in Russian occupied territory, Russian held territory right now. So a side deal would have to be made with them. And then on top of that, a lot of the stuff they're talking about, for example, materials that could be used for batteries for electric vehicles. Well, guess what? That's something Mr. Trump isn't even keen about anymore. So

So I don't think there is much leverage with that type of position when it comes from Ukraine's bargaining perspective. What do you think? What leverage does President Zelensky have? Hard to say. But I think, look, we're not sure what Mr. Zelensky's long term plans are politically yet.

He did promise to only run for one term. Of course, his term has been extended due to martial law and the war, and that's understandable. But if he's someone who intends to continue his role as leader of the country, he has to tread very carefully and saying, for example, we might give away land or we will remove ourselves from our bid for NATO, which is actually in the Ukrainian constitution,

Or let's remember the thing that toppled Mr. Yanukovych, saying that maybe EU accession isn't for us anymore. That would be the end of his political career. And I say all of this because Ukrainians are going to be asking, why did so many of our men and women shed blood, die? You go to the cemeteries here. It's so sad. They're full, many of them.

Ukraine has paid a heavy, heavy cost. The loved ones, the bereaved will not want to see any of that happen after having lost so much.

And it's really interesting because the former head of MI6 here in London, Alex Younger, was interviewed today and he said that no matter what happens in terms of the detail of any peace agreement, what's really important is the sovereignty of Ukraine is maintained. And that is what Putin doesn't want. He wants Ukraine to be obliterated as a country in itself. And if the sovereignty of Ukraine can be maintained,

kept and preserved, even if land is lost for it. That is something that not only guarantees Ukraine's security, but future European security as well. Well, I may sound a little bit too cynical here, but I can't help it. At the end of the day, words don't stop Russian aggression the way Patriot or the Anglo-French missiles do.

And it's always been a drip, drip, drip approach. I mean, remember, we go back to the start of this phase of the war, how long it took for the Europeans to deliver tanks. As far as I know, the Swiss, trying to protect their image of neutrality, still don't want to give certain types of ammunition to the Ukrainians. That's a big problem.

And a lot of them, as I alluded to earlier, just don't have the economic means to ramp up production to the point where they can give a lot of good kit to Ukraine and yet still be able to defend themselves. The other thing which is worth pointing out here that could happen literally overnight is if the Ukrainians feel that they're not, sorry, if the Trump group feel that Mr. Zelensky is not cooperating with them,

they could very easily switch off a certain type of assistance. What I'm talking about is, for example, intelligence. Stop the targeting information that the Ukrainians are using to hit strategic military targets in Russia.

But the other thing that worries me is if the Americans suddenly switched off those Patriot defense missile systems that protect all of us every night, there's going to be no Iron Dome anymore for Ukraine. It's going to be left very, very vulnerable. This is something I actually don't wish to contemplate, but this is the way, the very transactional way the Trump team plays. So

We have to start thinking about these things. And you mentioned earlier the cutting off of USAID, the funding which supports a lot of the social sides of the Ukraine network at the moment. Can you just describe to us what effects you've seen? Sure.

Well, it was pretty immediate and pretty deep. I mean, I have friends contacted me, Ukrainian friends, saying I'm looking for a new job because we were laid off very suddenly and very unexpectedly. And we have to remember that Ukraine was the number one recipient of US IED funds since February of 2022, north of $35 billion, everything from...

hardening port infrastructure in the Odessa region to subsidizing the building of bomb shelters in schools, to doing mine awareness training, to helping the emergency services here get new equipment so that can deal with all of these Russian bomb strikes.

And, you know, very, very important digital transformation, allowing Ukrainians to put things like their passports and all their other documents into their smartphones. So if they do have to flee very quickly, they have all of that there. They can prove who they are.

I'm very familiar with the work of the East Year Foundation. I'm a volunteer board member. And I was sitting in on a meeting less than a week ago where they were, and USID is their second biggest funder after Switzerland,

And they were already going through the very painful process of having to decide who to lay off. I believe the numbers are between 10 and 20 for now, but that could increase very rapidly. And they do those amazing things. For example, the bomb shelters for schools, the mind awareness programs. They're really, really big on digital transformation. So, yeah.

These things can be stopped very, very quickly, but they're very, very difficult to get ramped up again. And then one more quick thought.

My goodness, imagine what that does to the confidence of the Ukrainians here when you see what was a reliable partner, the United States, do this so suddenly and without justification. And at the end of the day, what the Americans need to realize, whether they're cutting off aid here or in Gaza, we're in such an interconnected, interdependent world that these things will come back.

and haunt the United States, whether it's in terms of higher grain or barley prices, whether it's in terms of an increase in radicalization. A lot of aspects here that could come back to haunt them, which they haven't calculated. And if you take that into context, and what you just said before about the fear that you now have that President Trump, in his transactional approach to things, might just decide to withdraw, for example, the U.S. intelligence, which is so vital to the military aspect of politics,

well, to what the military is doing in defending itself. What is the risk, do you think, that he can wield those kind of powers to impose a peace on Ukraine that President Zelensky, that perhaps the Ukrainians do not want? And what position does that leave them in? It's very hard to predict, but it would leave Ukraine in a very, very bad position, because I think there is a feeling here that

were going to be soon at the three-year mark and that, you know, they started off on a very weak footing, but they ramped up their capability. There still is a heck of a lot of volunteers going to the front line, a lot of money being raised for things like drone production. That, you know, they've, as I alluded to earlier, they paid a very, very heavy price for this war.

If all of a sudden tomorrow Europeans realize that, yes, this is a very serious situation, if Ukraine isn't given what it needs, Mr. Putin will come further. I think things could change very quickly. But at the moment, no one knows where things are going to go. And then again, I have to remind everybody that this is exactly the kind of vacuum that autocrats like Mr. Putin like to exploit.

Yeah. And should President Trump try to impose a bad deal on Ukraine, what do you think the likelihood is that President Zelensky will continue to fight? Can he? I think he can. But it depends what the bad deal is. But if it's those two things, withdrawal of intel and also removing the kind of shield that protects a lot of Ukrainian cities, we know how...

how awful, what kind of war crimes the Russians can inflict. They don't care. Mr. Putin is someone who doesn't even care about his own people. So it could get very, very bad and it could widen very quickly. I'm also, you know, Odessa is fairly close to Moldova and Transnistria. And, um,

It almost tears me up to say this, but Odessa could become very much in the crosshairs of Mr. Putin, again, sensing this vacuum and saying, OK, I'm going to go for that land bridge to Moldova, join us with Transnistria, and then Ukraine will all of a sudden become a landlocked country. I mean, that's the least of it, but still, these are the types of things that could happen. I don't think anything can be rolled out at the moment yet.

This is why I'm saying again and again, it really feels like we're in a free fall right now. And just finally, Michael, before that NATO Defence Ministers meeting, the NATO Secretary General said that this moment must not become a Minsk Three moment. What is the way to avoid that?

Yeah, Mr. Hegseth said that, I believe, yesterday. I was surprised that he knew what Minsk was because during his confirmation hearings, he didn't know a lot of things like that. So he must have been well briefed or had a speech written for him. But...

I think what was meant by that is that we want to create an agreement which is ironclad, where no party will violate it. Now, in terms of the previous Minsk agreement, as I said, it was the Russians that violated it.

And I think what needs to happen for any type of agreement to be ironclad is you have to have a grantor, a strong grantor. In the old days, we said, well, Turkey would be a great one. They're close by and, you know, there's someone who they have great capabilities and Mr. Putin trusts them.

But I think we need much, much more robust guarantors. So if it could be, for example, a coalition of guarantors, and I am almost speaking off the top of my head here, but, you know, in my recent travels, I've been thinking about this a bit, of an India, partially China, Saudi Arabia, India.

Parties with strength, but in one way or another, have played a role in the war here in Ukraine. Now, China has been accused of providing drone technology, but we'll put that aside for now. But it will take very strong grudges because at the end of the day, if there is a violation by Russia, which they're very good at doing, it could require boots on the ground here from those signatories.

Very, very uncertain future. A lot of different balls happening all at once and developments at warp speed. So very difficult to keep track of this all, but I'm trying to do my best for you. You've done a great job. Michael Bosiuk, good to speak to you and good to hear the situation from Kiev in Ukraine. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Thank you for having me. Thank you.

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