Frontline special - intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble and I executive produce the podcast. The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full. Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting.

Hello and welcome to Frontline with me, Philip Ingram. Now, today we're privileged to be talking to Malcolm Nance. Now, Malcolm is a former career US Naval officer, but you spend more time, as we've just been discussing, on land rather than at sea. But you specialise also in counter-terrorism, intelligence, violence, extremism. I

Have you read my CV? I've been an advisor for the US government in law enforcement, Homeland Security and intelligence agencies. And you're now a member of the board of advisors for somewhere that I really want to go and visit because it's the International Spy Museum in Washington, D.C. And you're an old friend of Frontline. Malcolm, welcome back to Frontline.

Well, it's always a pleasure to be back on Frontline. One little correction. I was a senior enlisted cryptologic technician, which means that I'm the guy that did the work.

and officers would sign off on my work. Well, I'm the guy that took the glory for the work that you did. I have a lot more practicum experience. That's the way I like to put it. Yeah, fantastic. Well, you're perfect for what's going on today. Practical experience. You're looking at what's happened over the last few weeks or months. We've had the memorable ambush of Zelinsky by J.D. Vance and POTUS in the Oval Office yesterday.

And it was suggested to Zelensky that he had no cards to play, I think was an exact quote from Donald Trump. But he seems to prove that wrong time and time again. You know, the Germans had said Kiev would fall within days whenever Russia carried out its full scale invasion. Well, it didn't. And the Russians were pushed back.

Then the Ukrainians retook Kherson and Kharkiv when they weren't expected to do that. And now over the weekend, we've seen upwards of a third of the Russian strategic bomber fleet destroyed by one of the most audacious James Bond style attacks that I have ever seen.

ever seen that is even better than the israeli pedra attack against hisbala and today we're getting reports of 1.1 tons of tnt blowing up um against one of these um the supporting structures of the kish bridge and as we're recording this secondary explosions apparently coming in we don't know what that's going to lead to um what do you make of zielinski's card game well

He's one of those guys who really knows how to bluff. Taking the slings and arrows of J.D. Vance and Donald Trump in the Oval Office...

who, let's be quite honest, the Trump administration in its entirety, all of his senior cabinet members from Tulsi Gabbard at intelligence to, you know, to Tim Waltz at the time and national Mike Waltz at the national security council, they live in a fantasy bubble about what's going on in Ukraine. Donald Trump says Ukraine is losing the war. Ukraine, all of Ukraine cities are destroyed.

The Russian army is on the march and it's just a matter of time before they lose. Nothing could be further from the truth. I try to make it clear to my American audiences that to drive across Ukraine, it is 18 nonstop hours driving at 120 kilometers per hour or 160 miles per hour. And it will take you 18 hours to drive across it. The war is in the last 30 minutes of that drive and only in the southeast portion of that country.

And Russia cannot win it. Ukraine has the capacity to win it. But you have a 1,000-kilometer-long battlefront in which hundreds of people are dying per day. And so Ukraine needs to fight asymmetrically. They need to use the strengths or the weaknesses of their opponent and, like judo, flip them.

So, in fact, the characterization of this attack, which has been carried out, Operation Spider Web, by the SBU, right? This is their version of MI5, is brilliant. But it leverages the fact that Ukrainians and Russians for a very long time under the Soviet Union were fused together as a forced society. So those SBU officers know where these air bases are, probably picnicked in many of these areas.

So by carrying out a long range, deep penetration intelligence operation, very actually, I'm going to correct you, unlike James Bond, right? James Bond's a loner. This really required an enormous number of spies in Russia, the logistics chain that they set up to actually assemble, test, develop these weapon systems. Zelensky's card deck is just full of aces.

You know, and so for Donald Trump to think that Ukraine had nothing going into his arrival back into the White House just shows the delusion. And, you know, I mean, he's got this Putin love thing going on, just shows the delusion that he cannot understand that a smaller nation can take on bigger opponents and really cause damage.

Yeah, well, there's so much in there. You know, if we examine it in detail, you know, I understand that the Ukrainians in October 2024 set up a company in Russia that was a haulage company and they bought the haulage trucks and all the rest of it that they then put these...

prefabricated buildings that they had put power capabilities in it, communications capability in it, and the drones in the roof of it and all the rest of it. And I'd built that up. But you and I both know the detail of what needs to go on to plan these sorts of operations. But come on,

from your perspective, let's give those that are watching this an understanding of the complexity of what goes on here, the reconnaissance that are needed, getting the signals into over thousands of kilometres simultaneously so that you can trigger all these devices and being able to let individual pilots fly FPV drones and the

What are your thoughts on the wider complexity?

Well, you know, the first three months that I was in the International Legion, I actually worked for GUR, which is Ukrainian Military Defense Intelligence, which is more like a hybrid of MI6 and, you know, generic military intelligence. And the first thing I can say is they kept me away from all the good stuff, right?

right? These guys already knew their game. They had been fighting Russia since 2014. They had been an intelligence opponent since their, you know, freedom in 1991. So they knew that Russia was always going to be an opponent. So before we can even talk about the 2024 establishing the operation, they had an enormous base of human intelligence

uh people who were on the ground lived in Russia had trucking companies knew where the mafia was knew how to buy things you couldn't get knew how when to trade caviar for ammunition things like that that requires an in-depth intelligence capability so gur or g-u-r uh Ukrainian military intelligence runs a network that's independent of SBU right

which is the organization that did this operation. But they could operate and interact without even knowing that they were supporting not one, but maybe 50 different operations. So between 2014 and 2022, they had been establishing relationships. They had been probably establishing safe houses as the war was coming in 2022. Let me tell you, the United States had a copy of the war plan in 2023.

or sorry, 2021, and told the Ukrainians, well, even though President Zelensky was trying to keep the country calm,

The CIA and Gore and SBU were probably out assisting in setting up hundreds of safe houses, keeping it out of the hands of the Americans. Don't tell MI6. Completely and wholly independent, just in case operations. You leave behind dozens of officers or relatives who are out there who you can clean up their backgrounds. This is an enormous undertaking of espionage because people think that

People think spies are penetration agents, right? They're the guys who go in dressed as a Russian officer. You don't have to do that. Real spies are the guys who set up hauling companies, who actually have to buy food on a daily basis in order to support 10, 15 safe houses, keep weapons, ammunition, and field kits on the ready, establish covert communications, but

back to their higher headquarters or you know using the Russian telephone system it's an first of Russians how many time zones 12 or something like that it's an enormous undertaking but you can by establishing this base of intelligence support you can do what we call walking between the raindrops right when the Russians flood a zone with FSB officers and you know spy Hunters well

could be in an entirely different city. You can always move to where you need to carry out your operations. In this particular instance, what I enjoy is that they went to one of the dirtiest places of Russia, right? Chelyabinsk is like the Detroit of Russia.

That's how people describe it. It's where trucks are made, where used cars are brought from Central Asia or transported into Central Asia. For anyone who's been to Iraq, there actually is a place like that south of Baghdad where all the used cars were brought and sold. And, you know, it's like a Star Wars cantina environment where

We're coming across from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and these other places where money talks, you know, bullshit walks and you can get whatever you want. Need 50 pounds of Semtex that's brought from Afghanistan through Tajikistan over there. They don't care. Hundred dollar bills. You get what you want.

All of that is in an environment where the Russians know it exists, have no capability of stopping it. And it's so far from Ukraine, it has nothing to do with the war, which is why it was the perfect place to establish this operation, create this false prefabricated house company, which would explain the wood structures that were put on these trucks.

and to establish a bomb factory and a drone assemblage factory and batteries to test and keep the drones powered. But then this is where real spies use dupes, right? You don't deliver the weapon system yourself. You pre-position yourself where it is, right? Make sure that the drones are speaking to each other and are operable. And you hire some Russian yokel who can get through any checkpoint, which is what they did.

And they the trucks were delivered where the client contracted them to be delivered to. And then the real operation started, which is turning the drones on, blowing the roofs off these things and then allowing the drones to launch and autonomously fly to a predetermined point where a pilot can do a handoff and he will select the final targeting and attack point.

Yeah, if only we'd learned these tactics somewhere beforehand. Oh, I remember during the Second World War, there was rats that had explosives put in them. That's right. There were coal that had explosives put in it. This was all special operations executive type activities. SOE stuff. All the SOE stuff. And I know that General Bodanov, who is the head of the GUR, said,

one of the first things he did was call for copies of the Second World War SOE manuals. And he seems to be applying that with the SBU very effectively across Russia in, and here's where I'm going to swear,

I was a military planner. I apologise for that. I bow down to those that did the real work. But on the planning for it, you're planning operational level activity. And what he's doing is, and what they're executing superbly here, are operational

operational level attacks that will have a direct impact on Russia's ability to prosecute its tactical operations in the frontline. Yet we hear all the international commentators talking about whether who's winning or losing by how much the frontline moves and whether taking 10 meters means that the Russians are winning. What do you make of that? Well, I mean, that's nonsense. I fought on the Kharkiv front. And let me tell you, if Russia takes 10 meters, they're going to pay for that 10 meters.

in bodies, which will stack up quite high. And this is the problem with a lot of Western defense analysts. They don't understand some of the tactics that are being used or strategies that are being used on the battlefield. Ukraine is a, how can I put it? They operate not at the division and core level, right? These 50,000 guys, they operate at the regimental level, right?

It's literally these brigades that are holding their sectors and they operate with autonomy. They have, you know, weapon systems that can be applied to them. And, you know, each one is fighting its own little war as the Russians smash up against it. But then you have these set piece battles that the Ukrainians...

allow the Russians to have, which we call a head against anvil strategy. The Ukrainians set up an anvil in a very important town, Bakhmut, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, these places. And the Russians will expend 50,000 men killed to win that village. And like President Zelensky said after the loss of Bakhmut,

Oh, we'll be back. You know, we fall back five kilometers, but you lost 50,000 men to take five kilometers and now you have no reserve. You have all this weakness. So it worked several times with the Russian Avdiivka where I'd been to in the pre-war. I thought Avdiivka would fall in the first week. It took three and a half years for that small town to fall and it cost the Russians tens of thousands of dead.

People can say, oh, it's attrition, Russia can take it. No, they can't. This isn't the Soviet Union in 1944. This is a country that has a society...

a middle class, they have businesses, they're essentially capitalist, and they have people that understand the Soviet Union can no longer bully them into sending their sons if they don't want to. So the sophisticated sons of Moscow aren't going. They're using mercenaries, they're taking everyone from Siberia and sending them essentially to their death because they cannot back out of a war that they start they thought they would win in three days.

Pre-war, I went to Ukraine for a month as the intelligence analyst for MSNBC News, and

I proclaimed after my first two weeks, there's no way Russia will win this war. There's just no way. These two factors were never factored in that I think people even still underestimate. The Ukrainian army, they are a very tough, now battle-hardened and adaptive force. They're very, very clever. And then the corruption of Russia itself.

You know, you want something from Russia. You want body armor. We found body armor with rubber sheeting in it.

I've got a guy's full combat assemblage here on a boxing dummy, a guy we call Dead Zed here in my house. And he's got a World War II, a 1950s World War II style steel tin pot helmet that is torn to shreds because they stole the Kevlar helmets or they bought Chinese plastic airsoft helmets. Russia is its own worst enemy here and it will cause their defeat.

Well, it's interesting. Ukrainians, they came out of the Soviet Union. They understand Russian or Soviet tactics because that's the Russian tactics. But they've also been trained in the West for many, many years. I remember going through UK's Advanced Command and Staff College course in 1996. And we had a Ukrainian officer in my syndicate and we became very, very good friends. So they're trained in the Western tactics. They're trained in and understand Russian tactics and they can bring the best of them together.

And this is where they seem to be having huge successes because they understand the enemy, whereas the Russians don't seem to understand the Ukrainians. Is that what you picked up when you're in the ground?

Yeah, they had some growing pains. Okay, let's be honest. The first six months of the war was a little sloppy. They were still using a lot of just go out and attack, right? You know, we actually, our Gurr paramilitary legion forces, they were given lots of weapons, equipment, and ammunition, these, you know, British American expatriate forces, for example, and they were told to go do reconnaissance by fire.

And it's like, whoa, why don't we do reconnaissance by reconnaissance? Why don't we sneak in there and look and fly drones? And Ukrainians were like, no, everything is direct action. We need body counts. By the time that the counteroffensive that I took part in, the Kharkiv counteroffensive, they had been convinced due to their own losses that they needed to, they could use maneuver warfare.

and hefty punch of a heavy armor assault to take back all of Kharkiv province and threaten Luhansk province from the north.

And I remember the night before I was part of a special operations task force. I remember the night before so many tanks and armor rolled through, it was like D-Day, from 12 hours of nonstop armor moving in that had never been in the northern part of Ukraine. They literally maneuvered them around from the rear, brought them all together, and at six the next morning smashed the Russian forces.

They learned that, but now the Russians counterbalance that with trench lines, defensive lines, mile-long, kilometer-long minefields, and the Ukrainians have to be equally as adaptive. In some places, it is like, you know, Ypres and the Battle of the Somme. In other places, it's just defensive lines waiting for the countering force to weaken or an opportunity to occur. And that's what happened in Kursk.

You know, and the funny thing was, very early on in the war, I was a big advocate for a multi-brigade breakthrough to Belgorod from the south.

and to just seize the city of Bulgaria. It's their major military base. Ukrainians waited two years and was like, no, no, no, let's go for the north where nobody is, then hold their country for like six, seven months and embarrass Russia. It was a brilliant strategy. But it is an adaptive hybrid strategy that we in the West don't quite understand. But when your battlefront is either like the

the, you know, Passchendaele on one place, that's for you World War I buffs, and on the other place, I describe it closer to the Ardennes Forest in 1944. My experience was the Ardennes Forest, okay? Massive forces coming through, enormous quantities of artillery falling on your head, and you're counter-forcing that and counter-attacking and breaking through to get to a further objective.

That is where people don't seem to understand the war, as many wars occurring simultaneously along that 1,000-kilometre front. Well, on that front, the defensive lines that the Russians have put in place, I think they're referred to as the Suvarikin lines, who General Suvarikin had designed them, are probably the strongest defensive lines of any conflict that's ever been in history. That's in there. But do you think that what we're seeing at the minute,

with the drone attacks and the attack on the Kirsch bridge and everything else is part of softening things up. Do you think we're going to see another summer offensive from the Ukrainians where they're going to use this big armoured push? Because we don't see much of Western armour and armour formations being used at the moment, principally because trying to concentrate that and punch through without getting local air superiority is virtually impossible. But they're now setting the conditions to be able to do it, I think. What are

What are your views? I don't think air superiority is a factor in this war the way people think it is. You know, this isn't, you know, the fold a gap in the 1970s where two massive air forces would be clashing, even though I was privy to see an actual dogfight.

between a Russian Su-35 and a Su-27. And it was fascinating, you know, the Russians are launching at high altitude trying to bring missiles down. The Ukrainian just went to the rooftops over Kharkiv and the Russians miss, you know. That is not what's going to happen here. The 50 F-16s are not going to do this massive, you know, air push with AMRAAM missiles and clear the air. Russian air defense is being taken out by drones.

It's being taken out by HIMARS rocket systems. So it's a very slow burn war of attrition in that sense.

In 2023, when everyone expected this massive Western armor counterattack, which did occur and there were some failures, right? The Ukrainians didn't understand their tactics. They didn't understand how the machines themselves could be done and operationalized. They've got two years now of war.

wiping Russians out with the Bradley, with the Challenger, using the 31M1 tanks if they're actually in operation, or the Leopards, which are everywhere. Okay, the Leopard tank is everywhere.

request. The Ukrainians aren't going to craft the battlefield so that they can do that armored breakthrough. They know that the Russian line has weaknesses that are inherent in the way Russia fights, the way that they send their men out to die. And at some point, there will be cracks in the line.

it was explained to me by at that time, defense minister Reznikov, that 2023's major counter offensive, which was the last one the Ukrainians did that had any, you know, heft wasn't going to be a breakthrough like Kharkiv in 2022. He called it, he called it a, um, a, uh,

pressure against an iron bar right where you have a machine that constantly breaks against an entire girder and then cracks will form and when those cracks will form something's going to break same thing here but

But I think the Ukrainians, now that they're really, you know, last night attacking the Crimea bridge, the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, wasn't the most important thing that happened. It was the night before there were like 150 drones.

Fired at everything in Crimea, air defense, command post was all hit simultaneously. Was that a massive deception operation or were they shaping the battlefield in such a way that

the underwater drone or explosives as they used it could be blown up there, which by the way, that is a special operations executive mission that occurred in Greece in World War II, where these SOE officers were living under the bridge. They were going to blow up and literally brought up thousands of pounds of explosives, 10, 15 meters below German soldiers. And they lived under that bridge placing explosives.

This was the same thing, only underwater. But as that bridge is cracking, part of what we may be going on right now, a drone naval offensive to break through, you know, into...

and you know into the uh in into the the northern sea sea of azov so that there can be a follow-through wave of drones that take down the rest of that bridge whatever it's going to be i will tell you this the russians aren't prepared for it we uh we tend to have a failure of imagination that the ukrainians must have for them to survive

Now, President Zelensky himself and your Western commentators have said that Ukraine's not going to win this war fighting on the front line because it's almost too big. I think it could defeat Russia in other ways, but that's a personal opinion. But we've got...

Your presence, Zelensky, was in Vilnius over the weekend, participating in a summit called the Bucharest Nine, which included Nordic countries to sit and discuss your support for Ukraine. The summit took place at the same day of the second round of Russian-Ukrainian talks in

in Turkey, in Istanbul, but those only lasted an hour and didn't seem to agree anything apart from another thousand prisoner swap and potentially swapping 6,000 corpses. Ukrainians presented a list of children that they wanted back, a huge list.

The Russians had been promising their list for what they wanted as conditions for a ceasefire and for peace to be presented before that. And they promised Donald Trump that they'd do that, but they haven't delivered it. And that

then TASS, the Russian news agency last night, published something that effectively said, give us everything that we want. Don't rearm. Set yourself the conditions that we can come back and take the rest of Ukraine, which is completely unacceptable. What do you think of the current political positions and the way the battle space is being shaped at the moment? And do you think that

the talk that we're seeing is better than no talk? Or is it just there to try and keep Donald Trump quiet? Well, first off, all of the talk that we're seeing is because Donald Trump, again, a man who lives in a fantasy world. And I'm saying that as an intelligence professional. If this were Burundi, I would say that they had a deranged leader who lives in an alternate reality and thinks that by just saying things that things will manifest themselves. They do not.

We all, the rest of the world and you and I, we live in real politic and we have to understand that for every cause there's a reaction and every reaction there's a counter reaction and a sequence of events and follow on chains of consequences. He doesn't believe that. He believes that by his own word, through the strength of his ego,

This war will yield two things for him. One, he will be able to raise sanctions on Russia, which is his primary objective was this.

in order to gain access to the hundreds of billions of dollars of oligarch money which is stuck in that country he has been he is just so financially focused for his own personal gain that he is using the position in the United States to do that and he thought that by you know bullying zielinski a person who has personal animosity from two right I mean

Oh, well, because Zelensky would not make a false accusation against Joe Biden and his son, and that that, in the beautiful phone call, got Donald Trump impeached for the first time as president.

And also, he believes Russia. He has been believing Russia since 1987. He is in love with Russian money. And so some people have told him, you know, Steve Witkoff, all of them have said, there's got to be a half a trillion dollars of Russian money waiting to flow out.

to our coffers. And so him viewing that the United States should change the dynamic of the world, which I wrote in a book called The Plot to Destroy Democracy,

which had Alexander Dugin, Putin's philosopher, and Steve Bannon, Trump's philosopher, dividing the world up into three poles. Russia would get Europe, the United States would get the Western Hemisphere, and China would get Asia. They're saying this out loud now. So Trump lives within a narrative and a framework and a worldview of Russia that Russia built around him.

And so long as that money's out there, Trump is going to say and do anything to try to get it. The second component is he is insanely jealous of Barack Obama's sort of undeserved Nobel Prize. Trump has been angling for a Nobel Prize since 1987 when he asked to be the negotiator for the START II nuclear arms talks.

And he thought that he would solve this war quickly. The world would have to recognize that he has the greatest art of the deal and that he would have to be given a Nobel Prize. And now those are both escaping him. I suspect that, and Russia of course understands this, Putin is a human intelligence officer. He has manipulated Trump for over a decade, got him elected president, quite arguably with the use of Russian intelligence.

And he understands that to get Ukraine is to get a president in that will create conditions on the ground that Russia can take over. And in the absence of a ceasefire, they have been demanding that Ukraine have new elections in the war, which is against Ukraine's war constitution, because they think that they can put in another, you know, Yanukovych.

You know, another pro-Moscow dictator that, and Trump would use money as the dangle. Let me tell you something about Ukraine. What?

When I got there, yes, it was a corrupt country and it was on par with Nigeria and places. The minute that war started, corruption was a, how can I put it, the most horrible, dishonorable thing you could do in Ukraine. It is a clean country now. Their children are dying. And so to hear this talk offends them personally and deeply.

And you have Zelensky, the guy who literally is playing the character from his TV show, right? Servant of the People, showing he is a true Churchill. He is truly a leader that we should all emulate. Trump can't stand that either. Oh, no, it's fascinating. Zelensky is certainly giving us a real lesson. Briefly, as a final bit, with everything that's going on in the world, in Europe, the Middle East, and China's expansionism, Southeast Asia, are we on a path to global conflict?

That's that's that is really a strategic question, right? I mean, a globe defining question. I don't believe so. I certainly let's just take all of this crazy talk about World War Three and atomic war off the table. OK, no one's going to be fighting that stuff. All right. Not even close. Look, even India and Pakistan backed off from a border skirmish. And now they've gone back to, you know,

kicking their feet up higher at the border crossing, you know, at parades. So that's important that people understand now. And I think with Trump diddling with the global trading system through this almost communist-like centralized system,

you know, dictatorial leader way of seeing things. The world is understanding that trade is based on relationships and cooperation, not conflict and intimidation. And who is eating our lunch? The Chinese. And if you had told me two years ago that the Chinese would be the adults in the room,

And they're adults because they're playing a long ball game, which is not domination of the Chinese Communist Party as an ideology to take over the world. They are intending to be the number one economic power in the world. And so by doing that, you must limit conflict and establish stability.

And Donald Trump, with his animosity towards China, which is just racist, let's be honest, the man is a flaming racist, is giving China everything they want. I mean, in 100 days, China got what they couldn't get in 20 years, which is the entire world hating America.

and ready to do business with Beijing and send all of their students to the top nine schools in the world, which are now in China. And Donald Trump has given that to them with this sort of weird pre-World War II-esque pro-Nazi, America first, Charles Lindbergh-like movement.

That is literally destroying America as a power in this world. So with Donald Trump destroying America as a power in this world, Malcolm, I think that's probably a good point to stop. It's been a real pleasure talking to you. And you've given us plenty of thought and plenty of things to actually come back and drill into with you again, if you're happy to come back on us. My pleasure. Really true. Thank you.

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