Frontline special - Russia analyst George Barros of ISW
World in 10
Deep Dive
What are the latest developments in the Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk?
Ukraine has resumed offensive operations in Kursk, making tactical gains in the northeastern sector towards the village of Berdin. Fighting is ongoing, with Ukrainian vehicles advancing into the southern part of Berdin. Russian sources claim they have stopped the Ukrainian attack, but this remains inconclusive. The scale of the attack is relatively small, involving platoons and small mechanized units, suggesting it may be a reconnaissance in force or a diversion for a larger offensive.
Why is the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk considered a potential diversion?
Russian sources believe the current Ukrainian attack in Kursk may be condition setting or a diversion, as they expect a larger offensive elsewhere, such as in Zaporizhia or other areas. The small scale of the attack, involving only a few companies, supports the idea that this is not the main effort but rather a precursor to a larger operation.
What is the significance of Ukraine's use of electronic warfare in Kursk?
Ukraine's aggressive use of electronic warfare has disrupted Russian drone operations, particularly FPV drones, which are critical for mechanized pushes. This has forced the Russians to operate without effective drone support, complicating their ability to counter Ukrainian advances. The Ukrainians are also integrating deep strikes with HIMARS artillery and electronic warfare, demonstrating improved combined arms operations.
How sustainable is the Russian casualty rate in the Ukraine conflict?
The Russian casualty rate is unsustainable, with an average of 30,000 troops killed or wounded per month. In late 2024, this number rose to 40,000-45,000 per month. North Korea's contribution of 10,000 soldiers only covered about 10 days of losses. The high casualty rate, combined with economic strain from recruitment incentives, poses a significant long-term challenge for Russia.
What are the implications of Russia's reliance on North Korean troops in Kursk?
North Korean troops have been deployed as dismounted infantry without vehicle support, leading to high casualties. Reports suggest a battalion of North Korean soldiers was lost in two days of fighting in southern Kursk. This highlights the unsustainable human cost of Russia's tactics and the limited impact of North Korea's contribution to the war effort.
What challenges does Russia face in sustaining its military operations in Ukraine?
Russia faces dual challenges of unsustainable casualty rates and economic strain. Recruitment incentives, such as one-time signing bonuses of up to $36,000, are causing inflation and labor shortages. Additionally, the defense sector's reliance on employment creates structural unemployment risks if the war ends. These factors make it increasingly difficult for Russia to sustain its military operations.
How effective are Russian air defenses against Western-supplied long-range missiles?
Russian air defenses have been effective in shooting down Western-supplied missiles like the Atakums. However, Ukraine is adapting by integrating decoy drones and offensive electronic warfare to suppress or confuse air defenses. The challenge lies in degrading Russia's integrated air defense systems, particularly their radar networks, which are critical for their effectiveness.
What is the potential impact of the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight by Russian air defenses?
The incident, which killed civilians, is a blow to Russia's reputation and complicates its relationship with Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan is not a formal ally of Russia, the incident may further strain their complex relationship. Azerbaijan, a significant gas producer, may seek to distance itself from Russia and play a larger role in offsetting Russia's reduced gas exports to Europe.
What is Vladimir Putin's biggest concern for 2025 regarding the Ukraine conflict?
Putin's primary concern is the potential shift in U.S. policy under the Trump administration. He fears that Trump may demand significant Russian concessions in negotiations, particularly regarding Ukraine's sovereignty and right to join NATO or the EU. Putin is also worried about the continued strain on Russia's economy and military readiness if the conflict persists at its current tempo.
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