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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble and I executive produce the podcast. The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full. Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting.
Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio with me, Kate Chabot. And this time we are joined again from Kyiv by Yuri Sak, who is advisor to the Minister of Strategic Industries, formerly advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. Yuri, good to see you again. Thanks for joining us on Frontline. Now, the long-awaited and much-negotiated minerals deal with the U.S. has finally been signed. What does it mean for Ukraine and U.S. commitment to your country? Well, I think it's a very important thing.
I think this deal means a lot because we have to view it within the wider context of this negotiating process.
And there have been some serious sticking points along the way. And this was one of them. So there's been a lot of effort put into the negotiating process for this specific part of the arrangement for the peace process, right, the critical minerals deal. And now that it is signed, I think Ukraine has sent, again, a very clear signal to the White House as well as to the
you know, all other partners of Ukraine, that we are serious about our commitment to peace. We are, you know, realistic about how to proceed. And at the moment, I think the signing of this deal actually opens a path for further steps, which we hope will lead to a lasting and enduring peace. And I would like to stress that in the statement issued by the White House on
One thing I've already noticed that is kind of overlooked by those who comment on this today, but the statement states very clearly that the deal is signed with the and sends a clear signal to Russia that the United States of America are committed to developing cooperation.
partnership relationship with the sovereign and independent Ukraine. Now, that is in itself a very strong statement, which indicates that the US continues to be our strategic partner. And on our side, you know, we value this partnership and we look forward to further steps. Early days, I know. But what is the collective reaction in Kiev at the moment to this news?
Well, in Kyiv, you know, we knew that this deal will be signed. And of course, at different stages of the negotiating process, which I think is normal because it is a deal about business transactions in the future. But this agreement sets up an investment fund. And, you know, the reason why it took so long actually to sign this deal is because at different stages we had to
to our partners in the US to ensure that this will be an equal partnership, to ensure that whatever is signed is in line with our constitution, is in line with our Euro-Atlantic aspirations in terms of our future integration into the EU, for example. And we wanted to ensure that by signing this deal,
Ukrainian people will not be put at a disadvantage. So what we have signed now is an agreement between equal partners who are committed to developing a prosperous Ukraine in the future. And of course, this will be then hopefully supplemented by further security guarantees, not necessarily law from the US, but from other Ukraine's partners.
So yes, at this stage, it's a promising sign. And put simply, it's one sticking point out of the way. Now let's focus on a ceasefire and then lasting and enduring peace.
Yes. And to that point on the ceasefire, how do you think it might play out having signed this deal? What influence do you think it might have? I mean, do you think Donald Trump will negotiate more favorably towards Zelensky now and towards Ukraine now and finally use some leverage on Putin and on the Kremlin, which has already said only this week that peace won't come as soon as Trump wants? Well, of course, we hope that peace
The White House and Donald Trump will continue to adhere to his own formula, which is peace through force. Of course, U.S. has leverage.
that it can deploy to force Russia to the negotiating table because, you know, from where we see it, we are hopeful but at the same time skeptical. We are hopeful because we know about the existence of these leverages in the US. We are skeptical because every night Ukraine continues to be a target of missile and drone attacks. Just last night,
We had another massive attack on the city of Odessa. Two civilian people were killed, many more injured. And this happens on a daily basis. So there are no signs of any commitment to peace from Russia, which absolutely is the opposite from our side.
Yes, and obviously the Kremlin will be a little bit shaken by the news. I'm sorry to hear about these attacks and it is dreadful that when we talk about these things and well, there's so much talk about peace, the fighting, the attacks do continue. What do you think the Kremlin
Kremlin will be doing now? Because it will be looking at this deal and wondering how to react and how it can now take the upper hand and influence Trump. They've got reason to be worried, haven't they? And Dmitry Peskov has said Russia won't do any peace deal the way Trump wants it. What do you expect their next move to be?
Well, I don't think they will change their tactics. We have reports from our general staff and from our top military command that they're preparing for new attacks. And now that the climate changes, you know, the weather conditions will probably, they think, will be more favorable for them in terms of weather.
more attacks. Of course, they will continue their friendship with countries like Iran and North Korea. They will continue to be supplied with missiles and drones from their partners in crime. And I don't think we will see in the coming weeks or months any decrease in their military activity on their side. But what we have to also think about and just reflect on is this. If we look at how...
Russia knows and knew this from the very first day of the large-scale invasion that for it to prevail on the battlefield, it needs to stop Ukraine's partners from providing us with support.
Now, of course, you know, Ukrainian people are fighting heroically. The army is really innovative and, you know, we're fighting a smart war. But at the same time, we are dependent on the support from our partners. Even though having said that, at the moment, we have...
built up our own defense industry to such an extent that more than 40% of all the weapons used by the Ukrainian army on the front lines is domestically produced. So that's another, you know, factor that Russia is taking into account when planning their future offenses. But, uh,
Russia will, we understand, continue their attacks. They are now more openly mocking the peace process because if you look at the way they are commenting on the peace proposals, that's literally, you know, taking a mockery of the efforts of the US, of Ukraine, because they're just saying, well, we'll just have everything and you get nothing, right? That's the art of the deal, the Kremlin style, right?
But that's not going to work like that. And we are seeing that there is a growing understanding of this reality in the White House. And I think that will probably encourage them to consider more things like economic sanctions, like sanctioning the shadow fleet that enables Russian energy trade. The U.S. will also consider perhaps providing Ukraine with more
powerful weapons. So we'll have to see how that goes. But for now, hopeful and sceptical. That's the kind of situation we're in. A mixture, yes. And I mean, earlier this week, the US had yet again threatened to walk away from the peace negotiations. Do you think that this movement in terms of the business deal on the rare minerals makes that less likely? Does that give you cause for hope? Because Trump is clearly saying
feels like he's made some progress with negotiations with Ukraine, but he is clearly losing patience that there is some transigence on this peace deal or ceasefire deal. Yes, I think overall, you know, now that the deal is signed, it will be much more difficult for the White House to sort of blame the lack of progress on Ukraine, put simply, because, you know, everything that was proposed by the White House
We, after discussions, we've agreed to. So we just the same way as the US, we are in favor of an unconditional ceasefire, a 30-day ceasefire, which should pave the way for, you know, a more lasting and enduring peace. We have signed the critical minerals deal, which will go towards, you know, it's a mutually beneficial deal. So at the moment, there is nothing,
from the Ukraine and the U.S. side that should stop us from sort of pushing forward with the peace process. It's just Russia who is now putting the spanner in the works. And we hope that the result, of course, will be at some point that the U.S. will have to consider a different strategy, a different negotiating strategy, because the art of the deal, we have seen one side of the art of the deal. I think time is coming for us
for all to see the other side of the deal where more pressure is put on the aggressor. So you think that actually is a real possibility now that Donald Trump will actually be prepared to put sanctions on Russia, increase sanctions on Russia? Well, look, unless they are ready for this peace process to stall, this will have to be a mixture of diplomacy and pressure.
And of course, we have to be aware of the fact that there are many things which are said and done behind closed doors and we don't actually get to see or hear them. But at the same time, you know, it's too early to kind of give up. And I think Russia is overall in a pretty bad economic state. They understand this.
You know, time is not actually on their side. So they are being degraded. They're not gaining anything on the battlefield. They have lost tens of thousands of soldiers just in the last couple of months. We have degraded their military capability by using our deep strike drones. You know, we are targeting their ammunition depots. We are targeting their oil refineries. So in essence, I think...
The momentum is here for the Ukrainian-U.S. partnership and the European partnership to actually apply pressure on Russia and force them to consider this more seriously. And as we speak, we are now on the fourth truce proposal. This one is the second unilaterally declared by Putin for three days on the 8th of May. It's been described as absurd by the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine. He's right, isn't he?
Well, Kate, look, it's like the Kremlin is saying to the world, OK, we are committing a genocide, but, you know, we will have a party and our friends will come and we don't want to spoil the party. So let's just put the genocide on pause for a little while, a couple of days, and then we will resume killing Ukrainian people, destroying Ukrainian cities and, you know, ruining the lives of Ukrainians.
millions of Ukrainian people in our country. So that's how it sounds. We have said on our side that, look, if you're serious about your commitment to peace, if you really...
serious about what you yourself say, that you want to achieve peace, let's declare an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire on land, on sea, and in the sky, and let's start talking about how we are going to solve this diplomatically. So the proposal of a three-day ceasefire, three-day parade ceasefire, is not perceived seriously. But of course, on our side, every day, Kate, is every day without...
shells flying and missiles flying means more Ukrainian lives saved. So we are happy even for three days ceasefire. But of course, for the peace process to be efficient, we need to talk about 30 days minimum.
Only last week, Russia launched the deadliest attack in Kyiv, on Kyiv in nine months. Numerous people killed and injured. It has since launched a massive drone attack on Kharkiv and is making advances in the northeast of the region. It's in Donetsk, Saporizhia and Kherson. Clearly, it's trying to capitalize on these delaying tactics. How much is it achieving? This is very irrational because on the one hand, you know,
At the same time, when top U.S. representatives are in Russia talking to the leadership of the Kremlin about the peace process, they are launching massive missile strikes. Look, since last Sunday, Russia has launched more drones on Ukraine than in the whole of May of 2024, a year ago. So they have actually intensified ridiculously their attacks. Of course,
This means that our air defense systems sometimes are not capable of actually deflecting all of these attacks. That means that, you know, the need, our need in more advanced air defense systems is growing. And we have actually said this to the U.S. We are actually happy to consider buying the Patriot systems, for example, from the U.S. by using the frozen assets of the Russian Federation. So,
It's irrational, but Russia is irrational overall. They say one thing and they do absolutely opposite tactics on the ground.
But again, they're just showing to the world their true face. They're not interested in peace. Russia wants Ukraine to disappear from the map of Europe. Russia wants the future generations of Ukrainians to stop calling ourselves Ukrainians. They want this to be the same people, the same sort of slave mentality.
And this is what we are fighting for. You know, we have to remember that with all the critical critical mineral deals signed for us, it is still about survival. It is about values. And I think this is how it is for the most of Europe, for example, because, you know, everybody understands very well that it's not about just territories in eastern Ukraine or Crimea. Right.
It's about Russia trying to impose, to superimpose the tyrannical regime on first Ukraine and then hopefully they want to extend it further west to the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union. And we're doing our best to stop that from happening. And I think if it hasn't happened so far, fingers crossed, it won't happen at all.
And on the subject of the Russian occupied territories and on Crimea, Putin is sticking to the demands that he wants them to be recognised as Russian. Do you accept that Ukraine may have to temporarily give up land for peace?
We are realistic, Kate, about the situation on the ground. We know very well that militarily we're not currently in a position to de-occupy our territories. We simply cannot retake Crimea. We cannot expel Russian forces from parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia region. And this is why it's a very difficult compromise for us because, as you will remember,
Well, not so long ago, we spoke only in terms of completely deoccupying our territories. But look, we know that it's not possible at this stage. So while we will never recognize Russian claim to those territories because they have been illegally annexed, they have been illegally occupied through a crime of aggression, which is an internationally recognized crime. But for us, it is also important to recognize
achieve peace and hope for a chance to reclaim our territories through diplomatic means in the future. So this is what all our efforts are aimed at now. And temporarily, yes, but we will never admit that Russia legally can claim those territories.
What can you tell us about Ukraine's presence in Kursk and Belgorod at the moment? Because the Kremlin had been trying to spin a line that Ukrainian forces have been completely pushed out. Well, yes, they have been pushing and they have been attacking relentlessly and they have been using North Korean soldiers, as you have seen now, because they've openly admitted to it in Kursk region.
And they have been lying again, because while the situation is difficult, it's not the way they said it. They said that they've liberated it entirely, that they've crashed all our forces. That just doesn't correspond with reality. And all the operational secrecy demands that we do not reveal any further information. But we've said this so many times. Russia cannot be trusted. Not that...
at the negotiating table or when they're reporting about the situation on the ground.
But it also indicates that Russian leadership probably feels under pressure. They need to somehow explain to their own people why this has lasted for such a long time and why the Ukrainian forces are still on the Russian territory and why the Russian army is still not able to regain even full control of Donetsk and Luhansk region. So they don't have anything to actually...
present to their own people and justify the staggering losses that they're taking in this war. So this is why they are embellishing things, they're lying about things. And we just know that, you know, we know this, our partners know this, and it's probably just Russian people who buy this propaganda.
How much pressure do you think Putin will feel from the killing of the Russian general in Moscow by a car bomb on the 25th of April? Because this was a deputy chief of the main operations directorate of Russia's army, according to an obituary, and prepared reports for Putin on the situation in Ukraine.
okay according to the geneva conventions on the rule and traditions of war ukraine is entitled to target anyone who is responsible for prosecuting this aggressive war against our country you know we have carried out certain special operations in the past to
And if we can take out those people who are responsible for killing our children, it will continue. And we have a moral and legal right to do that. And, you know, we'll have to see how that sort of impacts other members of the Russian military command. But, of course, it does send a signal that you can run, but you cannot hide. So...
Ukrainian special forces did carry out this attack, did they? Well, they didn't. Our special forces didn't say clearly that we admit to this specific attack. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. We'll have to see. But the overall strategy of the Ukrainian special forces is to disable Russian military command and reach them wherever we can.
I'd really just interested to get your perspective on the changes that have been announced by the Defence Minister, Rustam Umarov, to his department. Two new appointments, one promotion and one departure. He cites strategic steps to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities. What's needed?
Well, at this stage, we are primarily focused on building up our own defense industry base and the Ministry of Strategic Industries, which I'm part of, and the Ministry of Defense are both working very hard in this direction. So actually, one of the promotions to which you're referring to is Sergei Boyev, who used to be responsible for the international aspect at the Ministry of Strategic Industries, and now he moved to
to pretty much do this job within the Ministry of Defence. Now, we have been able in the last two years to triple the output of our defence industry. I've already said that our soldiers...
are using almost 40 plus percent of the weapons produced in Ukraine. We are setting up joint ventures with global weapons manufacturers. We have an unrivaled and unprecedented innovation potential when it comes to the modern warfare, drones, land drones, naval drones, aerial drones, deep strike drones, all kinds of drones. So all of this requires that the...
sort of management structure within the MOD reflects this new reality and the people who have been promoted, they are very well placed to actually help us, you know, accelerate these processes, strike better partnerships. We are,
working very hard with the European partners who are also now concerned about their defense future and they're building up their own defense industries. So the international aspect of cooperation is really important and these are the kind of changes that these latest moves reflect.
I just want to ask you about the planned joint exercises with Russian and Belarusian military in Belarus this summer. President Zelensky has said it may be used as a cover for gathering forces for potential military aggression. How great is that risk and is there anything that can be done to reduce it?
On the one hand, we probably shouldn't read too much into it, but on the other hand, this is exactly how the large-scale invasion of Ukraine began, with the large-scale military exercises, including along the borders between Ukraine and Belarus. So we are seeing that this is already impacting our economy.
Western neighbors, countries who have the border with Belarus. And, you know, Russia is unpredictable. So we'll have to be, we and our partners have to be prepared for everything. And it's, you know, time is of essence. So it's important to ensure that nobody is caught off guard.
And just finally, Yuri, I last spoke to you in February on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And you recalled at the time your children asking you in February 2022, Dad, how long is this going to last? And you thought at the time maybe a couple of weeks or a couple of months. What do you tell your children now? That's probably the hardest question so far. I just tell them be strong.
be strong and have hope and believe in our friends in Europe and the US. And they're old enough to understand that, you know, if we have managed to stand so far, there is strength in the Ukrainian people to continue until we reach just peace and normal life will be resumed. I hope so. Yuri Sak, thank you so much for your time. Thank you. Thank you, Kate. Thank you.
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