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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Tom Noonan and Stuart Willey. Ukraine is mourning the dozens of people killed in a Russian missile strike in Sumy in the east of the country. It was the deadliest attack so far this year, prompting horror at graphic images of civilians killed on their way to church.
and widespread condemnation from world leaders. But for Donald Trump, the strike was instead a mistake, and he blamed Volodymyr Zelensky for starting the war. And that's worrying many in Ukraine, including a senior MP who says it shows someone in Trump's entourage is pushing Russian narratives. To dig into this, and what it all could mean for the prospects of peace, we're joined by James Nixey, the head of the Russia-Eurasia programme at Chatham House.
James, does this strike on what appear to be clearly civilian targets show something is changing in how Russia is conducting this war? It shows that very little is changing in how Russia is fighting the war. Russia's modus operandi is indeed pretty much a scorched earth policy. If it can't
If it can't control Ukraine, it will wreck it. And that is precisely what it's doing. It is failing to win, really, even at the diplomatic table right now, although we can go into that in more detail, but it's certainly failing to win militarily as it initially wanted. That leaves Russia to exert its military superiority, which it still has.
And that is indeed, shall we say, an irritation to the Americans, not in and of itself, not in a sort of a human sense of the word, but because it makes it look as though the American attempts to force a diplomatic end to this war are not working, as indeed they are not. And why not? Because of Russia. Ukraine has bent over backwards.
to agree to this deal, to make all sorts of concessions. It's even made the concession that it might be willing to look at a loss of territory in some respects, at least temporarily, to say nothing of agreeing to the Black Sea deal and not to strike inside Russia at Russian energy infrastructure targets. And meanwhile, Russia does what we have seen in Sumy this weekend with appalling loss of life and really the pictures, you can't tell a thousand words. So we are looking at a
the usual efforts from Russia to scupper the peace process because ultimately they do not want to have an outcome which concedes anything. The Russians have so far not made any concessions to their own ambitions and wants whatsoever.
But even with that sense, they may be trying to scupper the peace process. This attack comes just days after Vladimir Putin welcomed Trump's envoy to meet him in St. Petersburg.
a meeting Steve Witkoff has been calling compelling. Yeah, it is a bit of a two-fingered response, is it not? But again, that is part of the Russian modus operandi. It shows a certain disdain and contempt for what the Americans are trying to achieve. It's sort of akin, albeit more deadly, to Vladimir Putin's
making US presidents of the past, popes, other leading statesmen and dignitaries wait for hours on end before he deigns to meet them when they come to Russia. So the Russians feel no compunction about such niceties and certainly not, of course, don't place the same value in human life as our Western values generally do, not to say that we are angelic or perfect, obviously.
So I think that it shows that Russia is not serious about its side of the peace process, by which I mean by calling this to an end, to ending the fighting.
whilst it has not achieved what it wants. And what does it want? It ultimately wants control of Ukraine. It needs Ukraine to bend the knee, a different government, a puppet government. And then for now, and I mean only for now, Russia would be temporarily satisfied, but not until then. From the US side, Steve Witkoff has been talking again today about handing over ownership of various bits of Ukraine to Russia. Is that what it's going to take to bring peace?
No, Ukraine will not really accept that, not even in the short term. It's gone too far for too long and spilled too much blood for that to be an acceptable outcome. On the American side, let's say, of course, the Americans don't care that much.
That is to say that it's not a bargaining chip in a negotiation if you don't value what you're bargaining. Bargaining chips have to hold some sort of value. So it's an easy thing for somebody like Mr. Vitkov to give away. But for the Ukrainians, they're still in this fight. They're not subjugated or beaten just yet. Yes, they face serious disadvantages with a likely pullout of U.S. support.
and, of course, being outgunned and outmanned, as they always are. On the other hand, of course, defence has always been an advantageous position in this war, and they are on the defence, and that means that the Russians are not making that much progress on the ground militarily. As for the four regions themselves...
They are not... Again, these are large enough swathes of land for it not to be an acceptable point to the Ukrainians. Europeans, for their part...
are likely to back the Ukrainians on this. They can't go along with the Trump administration on this one because they do value. They're not perfect. They're slow. They're not up to speed. But the reality is, is that they are, you know, at least rhetorically for what that is worth, backing the Zelensky government at this point, even if unity is frayed because of the Hungarians and the Slovakians and the Austrians, etc. But nonetheless, the sort of the
The core, core rate, momentum of Europe is still with Zelensky on this, and that's important. Steve Witkoff's talk about handing over those territories because people there are Russian language speakers seems to be lifted straight from Russian propaganda. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal says he's taking the Kremlin's side. How worried is Europe by this and by Donald Trump's downplaying of the Sumi attack?
Well, I think Europe has been worried about this for a long time, albeit prepared for it. Well, perhaps prepared for it since there's already been a Trump administration and is used to having a United States president who is anything up to a potential Russian asset. But if not a Russian asset, then certainly somebody who acts like one.
And so I think the intelligence establishments of Europe have protected themselves in this respect and are not sharing to the same degree that they once were.
But yes, it is entirely clear and has been, as I say, since Helsinki in 2018, that Donald Trump generally prefers the word of Vladimir Putin over that of his own intelligence agencies and government departments. So that is a world that we are actually quite familiar with now. It's just much more visceral this time around because in the first Trump administration, we weren't at war. And in this administration, of course, we are. So it hits that much harder.
I don't think the Americans are going to back down on this, would be my final point here, because I think when they face this kind of criticism, their instinct is not to make any concessions, but to double down.
So we're not looking at a situation where America can bail Europe or Ukraine out anymore. If anything, it's going to continue along this way. The only fly in that ointment, go back to your first question, Stuart, is the fact that...
It is the Russians who are continually being the awkward player here, and that does not help the American efforts to force this to a close. The Americans would be quite happy to force the Ukrainians to concede on territory, on control. They would pretty much accept the Russian talking points or the Russian demands, but again, that does not seem to be enough to Russia. And it speaks to the idea that Russia...
seems to need an antagonist, an adversary. And the great adversary, as the Iranians would say, the great Satan there is the United States. So we shouldn't be fooled into thinking that the Russians now consider the Americans to be on side. Actually, the Americans are A, unpredictable under Trump as they are, and B, ultimately the natural enemy as the Kremlin sees it. So
James, if Russia is, as you say, trying to scup a peace and nothing that is offered is going to be enough, why is Vladimir Putin still engaging in the process with Donald Trump? At the moment, the talks are useful to Vladimir Putin. So he's going along with the process. But I think that that is ultimately not possible.
the Russian endgame ideal. It's not to end this because of an American brokered process, because the Americans would take the glory and the Russians would still come away looking quite shabby. Ultimately, what Vladimir Putin needs to survive out of this is to get something substantially more than he started with. So that's not really conducive to the idea of talks, even though the Americans are willing to give away quite a bit of Ukrainian silver in the process.
It's it's we're still in a situation whereby the US is not an honest broker in this situation. And that does favor the Americans who ultimately did bet the farm on Trump winning the election, even if he's more unpredictable, obviously, with Donald Trump. Then there is a pendulum of extremities. He could either sell Ukraine totally down the river or I suppose this is what the Ukrainians are hanging on, perhaps.
he could get irritated with Russia. And this brings us back to the Sumi question to a small extent. And arm Ukraine to the hilt like it's never been armed before, again, to quote the US administration. So that pendulum of extremities is very much in evidence under the Trump administration. James, thank you. That is James Nixey, who heads the Russia-Eurasia programme at the think tank Chatham House.
To discover more on what tools the Trump administration may have to wield against an uncooperative Russia, listen back to our episode from the start of this month. It was called Putin Digests Trump Fury. That's it from us for today. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
Breaking news, and this one is almost unbelievable. Yeah, it's all about new customers at Bet365 because they get $150 in bonus bets when they bet $5 win or lose. And even better, bonus bets can be used on the spread, totals, and player props. There you have it. Bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets win or lose. And see why. It's never ordinary at Bet365. 21 plus only. Must be physically located in Virginia. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. TNCs apply.
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