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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. On Tuesday, Donald Trump utilised an Oval Office meeting with Canada's new Prime Minister to tell the world the Houthis, for so long a dangerous aggressor to merchant shipping in the Red Sea, to such a degree that it's more than halved in a year, have capitulated.
The US has accepted their decision not to fight anymore and will stop their bombing of the Iran-backed proxy group. The Houthis, though, will continue their air assaults on Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza.
Our guest today is retired Major General Chip Chapman, whose expertise includes the Middle East and who ended a more than three-decade career in the British Army as a senior military advisor to US Central Command. Chip, in the Sunday Times last weekend, our diplomacy and defence columnist, Mark Durbin, wrote about how the Houthis still have the upper hand in the Middle East. If that's true, why, just a few days later, have they given up?
Well, I think you have to first understand what deterrence is, and you can either deter by punishment or you can deter by denial. And since the 15th of March, we've had Operation Rough Rider from the Americans, where U.S. Central Command were ordered by Donald Trump to
to wage decisive and powerful strikes on the Houthis, so long as they continue to target shipping in the Red Sea. And it has been decisive in altering the calculus of the Houthis. So the Houthis say that they want to stop fighting, and therefore the Americans have called off the airstrikes. So in the words of Rubio, they've capitulated. Now, the Houthi really had two objectives. The first one was
an air blockade of Israel. That may be still ongoing because this may just be a freedom of navigation issue. And the second issue was a sea blockade. Now, although they said this was just supposed to be against Israeli assets, the complexity of the international maritime tapestry means that a number of other nations have been caught up in this. So,
getting the calculus changed by the Houthis seems to be a success if that's what they do. Now, that doesn't mean that the air blockade has finished. We don't know that part of it. So we don't know whether the Omani intercessions here were just in terms of that part of the maritime tapestry rather than the Israel. I suspect it is. But
I'm going at the moment we have the talks between Iran and America. And in the last week, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of State for Defense, has warned Iran that we know that the Houthis are supplied by you. We've always known that they give about 100 billion dollars a year.
And that will be coming for you at a time and place of our choosing if you don't get them to alter the calculus. So I suspect that also is played into it because, again, Donald Trump has a hard stop. Also, he said he has on the negotiations with Iran, which are due to conclude by the end of March.
It seems to me, Chip, a major policy twist by the US if the Houthis continue to attack Israel and then America does nothing. Is that a sign that they're putting the Iranian nuclear deal higher in their priorities list than Israeli security?
I don't think it's necessarily a policy twist. I think you have to, again, look at the position of the Houthis and Iran together, along with all the other parts of the axis of resistance. The Houthis were part of this unity of fronts with, you know, the Hamas and Hezbollah and
Those have been severely degraded. And in the words of Jim Mattis, when I was there in America, was sent central command that the loss of Syria to Iran would be the greatest strategic setback since the Iranian revolution. So Iran are on the back foot. The big issue in the talks with Iran is whether America goes to a maximalist approach. Thou shall have not only no nuclear weapon program, but no access to nuclear technologies.
or whether it's a minimalist approach, you shall be allowed to have access to nuclear technologies, but you will be caveated in the amount of uranium that you can enrich, and it should no longer be past 3.86%, and the IAEA should have access to any programs which still exist. That is a potential schism between the Israelis and the Americans in terms of I'm sure that the Israelis would like a green light to go and absolutely destroy Iran,
all aspects of the Iranian nuclear program. The Americans seem to be a break on that at the moment, but I think we will know in the next four weeks where we're going on that issue. Is Trump taking a risk, do you think, by trusting an enemy in this situation? And how much of a risk is that?
Well, it depends which entity you're referring to in trust here. Should they trust the Houthis? The Houthis, of course, are a sub-state entity. The Houthis themselves have said that they will see what the action on the ground is. And that's reciprocal, of course. If the Houthis don't launch any more missiles, then neither will the Americans launch missiles. And if that were to happen, that may give also some political space for trying to unlock the greatest problem, which is the future of Yemen itself.
and where the Houthis might sit in that, because most people forget that there's been a significant conflict, which is currently frozen, led by a coalition fronted by Saudi Arabia from 2015, which of course wasn't decisive, and actually was the first time that the Houthis did use cruise missiles from the coast, nearly sinking UAE ships and the
USS Mason, for example, in 2016. So Houthis have been a long-standing problem. Although they are often thought to be a proxy of Iran, they also have their own legitimate concerns and their own independence. So they are not just a proxy in terms of everything they do is because of what the Iranians tell them to do or not to do. They also have their own agendas. And
And Yemen's always been a problem because since independence in 1990, they've never really been sure if this is a developmental issue or a security issue. One of the problems, I think, with the Saudi Arabian attacks was that they treated the Houthis as a
security issue, whereas what that's exacerbated, of course, is the humanitarian crisis where over 50% of the Yemeni people need humanitarian aid and support. Indeed, that's where Haddadah as the port which was struck on the 4th of May by the Israelis comes into play because that is where significant humanitarian aid come in. But it is also correct to say that's where significant amounts of Iranian weaponry have also historically come in.
Given the problems you've spoken about there, and also given that Donald Trump vowed to annihilate the Houthis, and he has already caused enough damage that they're retreating, why do you think he doesn't just carry on? I mean, surely in his mind, defeating the Houthis ends a major problem in the Middle East.
Well, annihilation is a sort of mission verb that you wouldn't generally try and use in the military. You know, it's just too extreme, really. What the Americans would normally try and do, and therefore I was kind of surprised that in a way that the Houthis seem to have desisted at the moment, is that a major air campaign, and there's no doubt that Operation Rough Rider with over a thousand bombing missions, I think, has been a major air campaign.
is then generally followed up by some land operation. And indeed, there was a land operation, for example, to try and capture Hadidah early in the Saudi Arabian coalition against the Houthis. But one of the things about the Houthis and that part of Yemen, which I've been to a fair number of times in my working days, is
is that it's been the graveyard of empires in the same way as Afghanistan. So, for example, 20,000 Egyptian casualties occurred there in the 70s. And indeed, in the KSA coalition,
in 2015. That was recognized by the Egyptians and the Pakistanis who the Saudi Arabians wanted to provide grand forces. And there was an absolute reluctance of those two countries because they know the difficulty of campaigning in land operations in that part of the world.
OK, so perhaps a risky move, given, as you say, the need realistically to go in on the ground to actually beat the Houthis. Chip, one final one. We know this week the Houthis hit Israel's busiest airport, Ben Gurion. I'm wondering if there's any assault on Israel that would entice Trump back on the attack against the Houthis? Or is this a decision to just let the Israelis handle them in that regard?
Well, again, Trump has sort of said when he was elected that he will be judged not on just on the wars that he that he solves, but also the wars that he doesn't get into. So it really comes down to this conceptual aspect of whether he separates the freedom of navigation issue.
from support to Israel issue. Now, it's always been vital American interest to deter regional war and protect their allies. And it's also been a vital interest of America and the UK to keep the sea lanes open. So it's whether the duality of those two still comes together or whether he's going to go towards this notion that I want to be remembered as a peacemaker rather than a war maker. So I think that will be the key determinant for President Trump.
OK, retired Major General Chip Chapman, thank you very much. Now, as we record this, there is an escalating situation involving India and Pakistan. That's been brewing since last week. And our episode last Friday, the 2nd of May, Will India and Pakistan Go to War? covers all the background and looks at how the extreme tension between the countries might develop. Do scroll down and have a listen. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times, and we'll see you tomorrow. ♪
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