How Trump's military threat could force Iran-Israel deal
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble, today joined by Toby Gillis. Israel and Iran spent the weekend locked in combat. Iran's retaliation for Israel's attacks have had limited impact.

But it's still unclear how much damage has been done to Tehran's nuclear programme. In the meantime, any imminent ceasefire looks unlikely. Our guest today is Ali Ansari, Professor of Iranian History at the University of St Andrews. Ali, Donald Trump has urged both sides to do a deal. Can you think of a circumstance in which Iran would do one?

Well, I mean, there is always the possibility that they may realize that the sort of damage being inflicted on the wider Iranian political economy and also, you know, the level of casualties that are being inflicted, which I have to say, as far as the Israelis concerned, it's, I think, very counterproductive of them to hit residential sites if that's indeed what they're doing.

It is possible that they will come, they will seek some sort of way out because they'll see that the regime is under deep, deep threat. Not only that, also the country and the infrastructure of the country is getting a lot of damage. So there is a possibility that they will come to some sort of compromise. I find it difficult to see how that might be done with the current people in charge. I mean, it may be that, you know, there's some sort of shift in the power balance within Iran.

But if we want a swift resolution, then really it's got to be Khamenei coming in and deciding that now is time to drink the vial of poison. But at the moment, you know, there's sort of a view that they can outlast the Israelis. I think that's a miscalculation, to be honest. But it's this idea of who has the greater tolerance for pain.

And their view is that they may have greater tolerance of pain. I think it's a gamble at the end of the day. I think it's certainly a gamble for the Israelis in what they're doing. But it's possible that they will. It's possible that they will, but probably not in the immediate future. Donald Trump has now threatened to bring the full might of the US military down on Iran. Will that clarify their thinking over a deal?

I think that might turn heads in Iran. I mean, one of the interesting things is the Iranians have been very careful about trying to keep this bilateral. They think they can win against the Israelis. I mean, I have to say that on current evidence, that looks like a miscalculation in itself. But certainly if the Americans pile in, there's absolutely no chance that the Iranians are going to be able to, and the Iranian regime is going to be able to survive this.

it would be an enormously difficult situation for them. I mean, there's no doubt about that. It depends what Trump wants to do. I mean, you know, God help us if the Americans do get involved in a massive way. I, you know, I hesitate to think what will happen to the country. You know, if the Americans pile in on really sort of Fordo in particular and the sort of the nuclear sites, that's one thing. But if Trump unleashes his inner machismo, if I can put it that way, you know, it's potentially going to be very, very bad.

there are going to be some people thinking in Iran that, you know, we have to bring this to an end. I mean, we cannot simply go on in this way. And I'm sure there's already some thinking about that already, by the way. I mean, I'm sure there are people sort of thinking, because partly the response to the Israeli attack has been so weak. So, you know, at the moment, their view is that they will outlast the Israelis. As I said, you know, given that the Israelis have a certain degree of international support and the Iranians have none, I can't see how that's going to happen.

Israel has suggested publicly that they want regime change in Iran, although some reports suggest Trump vetoed an attempt to assassinate the Ayatollah. If somehow the Ayatollah was assassinated, what would Iran look like? Is there an opposition ready?

The problem at the moment with making any assessment of what the views are in Iran is that things are extremely volatile. I mean, you know, when you're having bombs landing on your head or the threat of bombs, it's not the best time to make a clear assessment of what, in a sense, is going on.

You know, there will be a wide variety of different views, often two contradictory views will be held by the same person, by the way. They may have intense dislike of Netanyahu, just as they have intense dislike of the regime. You know, I mean, it's this sort of thing which makes it highly, highly problematic to make any sort of assessment. You know, Khamenei is not popular. There's no doubt about it. I'm not sure what the merit would be in actually knocking him out.

So, you know, it's difficult to know whether that's sort of, in a sense, black propaganda, you know, intended to create more paranoia and panic. And certainly there's a lot of that going about. And, you know, one of the worries has to be that Iranians will start turning upon themselves. I mean, in the sense that

There's a great fear that the Israeli penetration in a sense of the security establishment, I mean, people are actively saying, you know, who has stabbed the country in the back, so to speak. There's a lot of decrying of basically opposition dissidents who are abroad and others. But I think there's an even worse sort of like decrying of what they see to be the utter failure of the military security establishment to keep the country safe.

It's precisely the sort of atmosphere that will turn people, I think, against each other, particularly once, you know, the bombing stops, there'll be a reckoning. I mean, that's where the problem is. Let's just move on to the nuclear situation now. We know nuclear sites have been targeted by Israel. Are we any closer to knowing how damaging that's been?

Again, it's extremely difficult to know until things are settled. I mean, what our estimation is and what I've read certainly is they have done pretty substantive damage. I mean, I think one of the things that I think we can later rest is this idea that a military attack would only set back the program by a month or two months. I mean, clearly it will set back the program by considerably longer than that. And I say that because basically what they're targeting is also aspects of infrastructure that will affect that, you know, their ability to pick that up.

And I think the argument here with the Israelis in terms of the way they're operating is they want the Iranians to focus on more basic fundamental things rather than concentrating on nuclear development. So this delays everything. And, you know, there are, I think Natanz has been very badly damaged. Even Fordow has been to some extent damaged. We don't know how much, but there's also all sorts of other parts of the supply chain that have been affected.

So I think when push comes to shove and when this is done, we will see that on this element of damaging the Iranian nuclear program, not eliminating it, but damaging it certainly, damaging it for a substantive amount of time, a year or even 18 months or so. I think on that level, they're well on their way of achieving that. Ali, Israel has also killed a number of Iran's top nuclear experts, but I imagine no matter how many they kill, Iran's knowledge can't be forgotten.

No, not at all. I mean, this is the problem. And I think this is why there's also a huge amount of controversy, particularly about killing scientists. I mean, some of these are working in the military establishment, others are not. The point about this, of course, in a highly cynical way, and I wonder if one wants to be quite sort of very bland about it, is basically to send a signal to scientists in Iran that don't work on the nuclear program. Yeah.

They don't want to offer any sort of sense of job security. I mean, it's an extremely, you know, ruthless attack in that sort of sense. I mean, one can't diminish it. And they've been doing this for a while. I mean, the other side of the debate, of course, is that the Iranians have also, I mean, the Islamic Republic, I should say, rather than Iranians as a whole, but the Islamic Republic has also been pretty ruthless as far as the Israelis are concerned and attack them. So it's not...

You know, I'm not a great one for sort of saying that the sort of saints and sinners category, that one is a saint and the other a sinner. It's far too complicated for that, unfortunately. And whoever the saints or sinners here, what will be the regime's main concerns for the future? I imagine there are domestic issues this will have caused, as well as their ability, or not, if you believe Tehran, to nuke Israel.

What's very interesting is they've maintained on this front, they've maintained this line. I mean, whether we believe it or not, that they will stick within their lines, they don't plan to build a bomb. They're limiting the hearts and minds battle of the words is basically targeted at ensuring that Israel is seen as the sinner in all this. By the way, I don't entirely discount the Israeli argument that there were some within the regime that were anxious to move ahead with a bomb.

I mean, certainly after last year. I mean, to my mind, you know, one of the problems with all this, as far as the Israelis was concerned, is the minute the Iranians started launching missiles into Israel, you know, last April and again in October, I thought then, you know, we're in a much different situation. I mean, because even if they didn't build, you know, a nuclear bomb, they clearly shown their willingness to chuck missiles into Israel. And one of those could be armed with something. I mean, not necessarily. I don't particularly think, even though the Iranians...

in terms of some of their propaganda, arguing that they're very happy to nuke Tel Aviv or something, which is a completely ill-judged and absurd thing for them to do. I think fundamentally, again, of course, this is changing the political calculus in Iran, of course. So when the dust settles, people in Iran will say, is it really worth us going through this sort of thing in order to get, should we not focus our expenditure, our money, you know, the economy is not in great shape, should we not focus on building up

the economy. And that's basically what they should have done, to be honest. I mean, they've spent a lot of time huffing and puffing about nuclear weapons and being a great power and a regional power. And some people in the West have sucked this up. I mean, they've sort of really sort of bought, you know, that Iran's a regional superpower. Iran is not a regional superpower, really. I mean, it's been able to get away with stuff, partly because, you know, after the US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and, you know, US fatigue with the Middle East, basically, I mean, the Iranians and the Russians have filled that vacuum.

you know, their might has largely been the consequence of other people not stopping them, if I can put it that way. It's been people letting them get away with it. And what you've seen over the last 18 months is actually massive pushback on a scale that obviously few of us could have perceived, which has severely damaged that position. And I think a lot of Iranians and others will contemplate and say, why are we going down this road when actually what we need to be doing is building up

The political economy of the country and hospitals and schools and this, that, the other. So again, I think that debate will become much, much more live if the Israelis can claim, if they're successful in the long run, is that they will have changed the political calculus.

OK, Ali Ansari, Iranian history professor, thank you for joining us. The situation between Israel and Iran remains dynamic, but the reasons for it are set in stone, really. We looked at them in detail on Friday's episode. Scroll back and hear The Times' Middle East correspondent, Sameer Al-Atrush, deliver a detailed explainer. For now, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times, and we'll see you tomorrow. If you're a lineman in charge of keeping the lights on,

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