How US allies are Trump-proofing their arsenals
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Get started today at E-Trade.com. Terms and other fees apply. Investing involves risks. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, LLC. Member SIPC. E-Trade is a business of Morgan Stanley. Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. Donald Trump's effect in just the first 92 days of his second term is undeniable.

upending how the United States is seen around the world in terms of trade, the economy, the rule of law, and dramatically US foreign policy. And now that is prompting American allies to look at the weapons in their arsenals, as many contemplate moving away from a dependence on US-produced weapons. Our guest today is The Times' defence editor Larissa Brown, who's been writing about this shift.

Arms fairs, Larissa, are often an opportunity for weapons makers to show off their latest shiny kit. But now there is a new sales pitch, isn't there? Tell us about desensitised weapons. Well, what's happening is defence companies are becoming quite nervous about using any US components in their military.

equipment or weapons. And so increasingly, we found that British and European companies are instead opting for what's deemed ITAR-free products, which are products that basically don't come under certain restrictions from the American government.

And therefore, they are not components from America. And instead, they're trying to get components from Britain and Europe. Now, this has become a key factor when these companies are considering what they put into their weapons. More recently, because of Donald Trump's behavior, he's obviously increasingly seen as unreliable when it comes to defense equipment, basically.

What kind of weapons are we talking about here? Is it the very high-tech stuff or more work-a-day equipment?

It's everything, really. So a while ago, a few years ago, companies might have a discussion where they're trying to sell a product to another, to a government or another company. And they would discuss maybe at some point during that meeting, maybe possibly at the end, whether the equipment is ITAR free or not. So whether it doesn't have any US components and therefore doesn't come under US restrictions.

Now, however, we were told by one defence company that when they're going into a meeting to sell those products and export them, the first question that people are asking is, is that component, is that weapon ITAR free? Because what they're concerned about is in the future, Donald Trump's administration could potentially,

prevent that company from selling their products to certain countries and there's this increasing nervousness across Britain and Europe that the Americans aren't seen as a reliable partner anymore. For us who maybe only have a vague awareness of ITAR, the International Traffic and Arms Regulations, what exactly does it do? Is this all just about re-exporting products once you own them?

Basically, it just means that if a company has a product that

contains a US component, then it's deemed to come under these ITAR restrictions. And that means that the company can't just sell that, resell that product anywhere, or sell what they've created to any country without asking for US approval first. And I was also told that it's even a restriction if a, say, British company employs a

or a former American civil servant in their company, they also might come under these ITAR restrictions, which means that they could struggle to sell that product to another country or government or company without asking for US approval. So it's deemed to be a pretty big deal and it has hindered companies in the past, but more recently they've become a lot more worried about ITAR goods.

It seems like maybe it's not just ITAR worrying buyers. They might not be able to resell their weapons. But there's also this broader worry that the US maybe could block weapons from working or even stop maintenance or upgrades to those weapons. Yes, this is another concern that one company pointed out to us that

What they would fear is that in the future, they might need upgrades or maintenance on a specific piece of equipment. And actually, they wouldn't be able to get that without U.S. approval. So it could mean that, you know, a piece of equipment becomes obsolete as a result of U.S. restrictions. So that's another concern that they have. So is this all bad news for U.S. defense companies and all good news for European ones?

I think that's a pretty fair summary. I spoke to one defence expert who said that Francis Tusser, actually a defence analyst, and he was saying that essentially, you know, US Donald Trump has meant that people no longer feel like they can rely on US defence companies, which is obviously going to be a huge shock to those big US defence companies that were hoping to market their products abroad.

Britain has had at least 70 years of very close Anglo-American cooperation over military tech. The RAF relies on US-provided products, technology. How long would it take to decouple, to maybe end that relationship? I think it would be extremely difficult for us to completely end that relationship with the Americans because every single, well, every major defence programme that

that I can think of is, you know, somehow intertwined with the Americans. I mean, to completely free ourselves from America would be, would take decades and it would cost far too much money. I think, though, what we will see is an increasing demand

with European governments and companies instead of the Americans. And whilst we will still need high-tech American kit, because the Americans often do provide, you know, the cream of the weapons, I think that we, where we can, I think we will have many more sovereign countries

equipment and products being developed here. Larissa, are there implications from this? Where allies are working together in a conflict zone, like say where the Danes and Brits operated with the US in Afghanistan?

We still need, I mean, it depends where we were going and what the conflict was. But at the moment, we're still very reliant on America just for a lot of their enablers like logistics, supply trucks and things. So we couldn't do a deployment like we did in Afghanistan, an operation like that without the help of the Americans at the moment. But I think increasingly the UK Ministry of Defence is relying

What is the solution here? How are the big US defense suppliers looking at this change?

I'm sure that at some point the companies will kind of crack and start trying to persuade Donald Trump to make America seem like a reliable partner again, because I think that is the problem at the moment, is those US defence companies aren't going to get huge deals abroad without those countries feeling like they can rely on America for all of that.

I mean, just take the example of BAE. We had our splash this week on the front page of The Times, which was talking about BAE announcing this decision to start producing their own explosives in the UK. Now, we haven't had that capability before. And previously, BAE would import RDX explosives from the US and France, and then they'd use those explosives to make bombs.

155mm ammunition rounds. Now what BAE are aware of is that if we did face a conflict in future then

the demand for explosive material would go up significantly and therefore the UK needs to be able to produce that on its own in case there was a war and so that's what they're looking to do at the moment and they're significantly ramping up their ability to actually produce their own explosives using auto automotive technology so if the US wanted to push back in any way against this quest for military independence of its allies could it do anything to to try to push back I

I think in this particular example, I don't think there's anything necessarily that the Americans could do. I think generally the UK and BAE and the government has sort of woken up to the fact that you do need to have the ability to produce things like this on your own soil because there is an increasing risk of us facing a war in the near future.

I think generally, though, obviously it comes as, you know, wider British and European companies are concerned just generally about relying on America because it's not considered the ally that it once was. For most of us, though perhaps not Donald Trump, the US Constitution bars a third term once he departs and a new president takes office in 2029.

Do you think, Larissa, we might see a return to historical norms? What Trump has done is pushed the British and the Europeans in a direction that won't suddenly reverse if we get a new president in a few years' time. I think that generally the UK and Europe has woken up to the fact that it needs to invest more in its own defence and can't just rely on the Americans to provide that. I mean, also, I think that, you know, whether J.D. Vance would come next, I know that

actually American officials have warned people in the UK that don't just assume that this is just something that's going to happen for the next few years and then the problem will go away and we'll all go back to normal. And actually, the government here should be preparing for the fact that this is a long-term strategy by the Americans and we should make sure that we actually are investing as much as we can in our defence. Larissa, thanks so much. That's The Times' defence editor, Larissa Brown.

With Donald Trump's focus today on his domestic economy rather than foreign policy, we're seeing more turbulence for the US dollar and for stock markets. On a recent World in 10, we discussed Donald Trump's considerations over tariffs and the economy. Look back for an episode entitled, Who Will Blink First, Trump or Xi? That is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow. ♪

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