ISIS has been quieter due to the defeat of its physical caliphate in Syria and Iraq, which significantly reduced its territorial control and media operations. Many fighters went underground, and propaganda efforts were outsourced to regions like Afghanistan and Pakistan. Additionally, the FBI has been effective in intercepting plots before they materialize, leading to fewer high-profile attacks.
There are an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 ISIS fighters in Syria, with attacks tripling in the last year compared to the previous year. This resurgence reflects the group's shift to underground operations and increased activity in online chat rooms and Telegram channels.
ISIS's propaganda strategy has shifted from centralized media operations in Syria and Iraq to decentralized efforts in regions like Afghanistan and Pakistan. The group now relies heavily on online platforms such as Telegram and chat rooms to recruit and coordinate, focusing on creating panic and attention through dramatic attacks.
Trump faces a complex situation with ISIS's resurgence in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. He must decide whether to maintain a token U.S. military presence to counter ISIS expansion or risk destabilizing the region further by withdrawing troops. Additionally, the group's increased activity and propaganda efforts demand a renewed focus on counterterrorism strategies.
ISIS attracts more media attention due to its history of brutal propaganda, such as videos of Western hostages being executed. This has seared the group into the public imagination, making it a focal point for media coverage. The group's dramatic tactics and ability to sow panic also contribute to its notoriety.
Online platforms like Telegram and chat rooms are central to ISIS's recruitment and operations. These platforms allow the group to communicate with followers, coordinate attacks, and spread propaganda. The anonymity and reach of these platforms make them effective tools for maintaining influence despite the group's physical setbacks.
The FBI has shifted its focus to intercepting smaller-scale plots before they materialize, leveraging increased resources to monitor and disrupt ISIS activities. This approach has been effective in preventing high-profile attacks, though the threat remains persistent and evolving.
After the Islamic State-inspired terror attack in New Orleans on New Year's Day fears are growing that the group is on the rise in the West again. Where has it been? Why return now? And how will Donald Trump respond? The Times' US Correspondent Josie Ensor analyses how IS activity thousands of miles away is dictating anti-terror policy in the West.
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