Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal (Part 1): details and potential problems
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. After 15 months of violence, a deal, it seems, has been agreed between Israel and Hamas to stop the conflict in Gaza and release Israeli hostages.

The agreement, which should come into force on Sunday, has been welcomed by governments and people all over the world. Palestinians in Gaza celebrated, as did some Israelis in Tel Aviv. But families of hostages are more cautious, as is the former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who spoke to Times Radio a little earlier. I feel, on the one hand, I'm very happy that...

Hopefully, we will have 33 hostages back in Israel through the next few weeks. But I'm not certain that there is much more to be happy about. I thought from the beginning that this should have been a comprehensive agreement.

This will end the war right now and will bring all the hostages back right now. I'm not certain that there is an open mind in the Israeli government at this stage to declare the end of the war

That was the former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert speaking to Times Radio. Our guest today is the Times' Middle East correspondent, Sameer Al-Atroosh. Sameer, we have seen jubilation from many people over this deal. Assuming it is approved and ratified, can you just run us through what exactly has been agreed?

The agreement is going to be in three stages. The first stage, which is what's certain, what's guaranteed to come to pass, is a 42-day ceasefire in which Hamas will begin releasing the hostages it kidnapped when it attacked Israel in 2023. So out of the 100 remaining hostages that Hamas has,

Israel believes at least 30 have been killed in captivity. And of the remaining ones, they will be releasing 33, what are classified as the kind of vulnerable category. So that's going to be women, the ill, and men over 50. And in return for each batch of hostages, we'll see the first batch released this weekend,

followed by batches over every week. Israel will be releasing a ratio of about one to three Palestinian prisoners or in Israeli jails. Now, those include prisoners serving life sentences for attacks or for murder. And that's going to continue for 42 days. And in the meantime, Israel is to withdraw to a buffer zone along the border with Gaza. So they will remain inside Gaza. And

They will maintain troops on the so-called Philadelphia Road, which it's along the border between Egypt and Gaza. And by after the second week,

The idea is for negotiations to start on the second and third phases of a ceasefire once this one expires. So ultimately, the idea is that Israel will withdraw entirely from Gaza and Hamas will release all the remaining hostages. So those would include males and male soldiers, right?

And in the third phase, the reconstruction will begin. So obviously there's jubilation on both sides. Many in Israel wanted the hostages released. Many in Gaza wanted the war to end. It's destroyed or damaged much of Gaza, really. So hundreds of thousands are homeless. Not really much remains standing in Gaza, and it's going to take years, if not decades, of reconstruction.

So as you say, jubilation now, despite that destruction. How will the two sides be digesting this deal today? I think we will be seeing a lot of posturing because it's in neither side's interest to make it look like they were the ones to compromise or were the weaker party. Obviously, Hamas has a lot of explaining to do. It started the war. All it achieved in this war really is the destruction of Gaza.

And at best, Hamas's conditions were to bring the clock back to the day before the attack, which really, for many Gazans, raises the question, well, why did you conduct the attack in the first place? The regions changed dramatically since the attack. Iran is weakened. Hezbollah is out of the picture. Hezbollah cannot be replenished because Syria has fallen to the rebels, so Iran's lost their access to Lebanon.

Hamas's leaders are destroyed. So they're in a very, very weak position. But they want to show that they at least stuck firm to their demands and they didn't make dramatic concessions. Netanyahu as well. There are questions. I mean, Israel arguably has achieved quite a lot in this war,

strategically in terms of weakening Iran, weakening Hezbollah, which was more than Hamas. It's much more formidable and strategic threat. At the same time, a year and a half later almost, and the hostages have not been released. Hamas has not been destroyed. Those were the two goals of the war.

Netanyahu pledged that the war will continue until all the hostages are released and Hamas is eradicated. Well, Hamas is still very much in control of Gaza. They are still the most powerful group in Gaza. And the hostages are being released through a negotiated settlement. So there are Israelis asking the question, well, why couldn't we have done this in May?

Or in April, why now? What did we gain by extending the war? So both sides are very keen to show their domestic opinion that, well, you know, we've reached this agreement now because the other side has compromised and has surrendered, basically.

Samir, we've spoken to you many times as diplomats have crisscrossed from Cairo to Doha trying to come up with a deal. Just how different is this one to those deals, as you say, back in April or May last year? Well, it's very similar. I think that's why we saw Joe Biden yesterday rather frustrated that this deal has finally come to pass a week before he leaves office.

Obviously, Trump has taken credit, not entirely without reason. You know, Steve Witkoff, his envoy, was in the room yesterday when the deal was announced in Doha. The Qataris very pointedly thanked him before thanking the national security, the acting current national security Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk. So it does seem that, you know, Trump did apply a lot of pressure on both sides.

certainly on the Israelis, certainly on Hamas. And that also increased pressure from the Qataris and the Egyptians on Hamas as well. So I think that's the main thing that's changed, really. But in terms of the actual...

substance of the deal. It's not very different. Obviously, Israel maintains a true presence along the border with Egypt for a bit longer than we would have seen in May. But by the end of the first phase, you know, it's indistinguishable really from the Biden proposal that was put forward in May. So plenty around the world hoping this deal will hold. Are there, though, bumps in the road perhaps in the coming days and months that could scupper it? What should we look out for?

Disagreement on the hostages that are being released, the names and identities of the Palestinian prisoners that would be released in return, the timetable for the Israeli withdrawal, from where they withdraw precisely. There's still disagreement on that. I mean, I think it's significant that the Qatari prime minister yesterday said that the proportionality

proposal or the draft agreement will be published once the final details are agreed, which shows that these details have not yet been agreed. There are definitely small matters that can kind of mushroom and become very complicated. The mediators, they say that in substance, everything is fine. They don't see these disagreements down the line unraveling the deal. But again, things can change easily.

Samir, this has been a conflict that has killed thousands and thousands of people. And you touched before on the immense destruction that's also been caused. Our data and visual journalists have put together some dramatic before and after images that people can see at thetimes.com. How do you even start trying to fix Gaza? Samir?

Well, absolutely. It's going to take billions, estimated $60 billion or more, up to $80 billion altogether. And again, many years, if not decades. So the two questions is what happens to Gauss' population during that period?

Are they going to be expected to live in tents for the next 20 years? Are we looking at an exodus at some point? That's one major question. The other question, obviously, is who's going to, you know, nobody's going to want to put money into Gaza if it can be destroyed again in another war. You know, the Palestinian territories have seen billions, tens of billions of dollars in aid and reconstruction over the past decades. And, you know, things that were just constructed after the war in 2014 have been destroyed.

So I was talking with an official from one country that has put in billions of dollars into Gaza and the West Bank. And, you know, they made the point that everything that they've constructed and built has been destroyed in this war. I don't think anyone would be very comfortable putting in a lot of money into Gaza short of a long-term agreement that forestalls...

or it just completely diminishes the chances of another war. So you would need some sort of political solution or at least a movement towards that, a two-state solution. Obviously, the issue with Hamas remaining in Gaza, that in itself is a big red flag that there could be more wars down the line. So it's a matter that really hasn't been settled yet. And I don't think people have really come up with a concrete plan to...

to go ahead with the reconstruction and the funding. Thank you. Samar El-Atrish is The Times' Middle East correspondent.

That's it from us for now. Click subscribe or follow to make sure you catch an extra bonus episode later today, where we're going to be going into detail on how the incoming and indeed outgoing US presidents helped broker this deal. But for now, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times.

Thank you.

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