Macron, Starmer & Trump: Ukraine’s fate at stake
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. With European leaders gathered in Kiev to mark the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the absence of top US officials has heightened fears that Europe may have to shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine alone.

The French President and British Prime Minister meet with Donald Trump in Washington this week to press their cases. But now Germany's incoming leader has made one of the most striking comments yet on whether Europe can rely on the US in future. Our guest today is Peter Conradi, the Europe editor for the Sunday Times. Peter, many European leaders have been, well, surprised by Mr Trump's shift on Ukraine.

Could you talk us through the frenzied diplomatic activity happening on this side of the Atlantic? Yeah, I think surprised is a bit of an understatement. Shocked, completely taken aback by horrified, I think, would be a more accurate description. The basic message is that Donald Trump is very keen to deal with issues

Vladimir Putin, over Ukraine to end the war. He doesn't really intend to consult the Ukrainians. He certainly doesn't intend to consult the Europeans. So you've got, suddenly we've gone, since Trump's arrival in the White House, we've had a complete change in American policy from the kind of policy that we had under Biden, where basically Europe and America were marching hand in hand, or

step in step rather, together. It's a complete uncertain world now. The Europeans are trying to make some sense of it. And they're also trying to fight back or to make their voice heard. And they're having to do it quickly because Trump seems to want to move very quickly as well. And that attempt to make their voices heard begins today with Emmanuel Macron's meeting with Donald Trump. What will Macron be trying to achieve?

Well, he's basically going to try and persuade Trump to change course. And how's he going to do that? He sort of laid out a little bit in advance in sort of a Q&A he did with social media a few days ago. He's essentially going to flatter Trump.

He's going to say to him that it would be a huge strategic mistake if he did a deal which somehow made it look as if Vladimir Putin had won. This is a classic sort of appealing to Trump's vanity. He's going to say, you know, you're the man who's the great dealmaker, the author of this much quoted art of the deal book. You know, you can't just let Putin walk over you.

you've got to do a deal which is fair to the Ukrainians, because only that way can you demonstrate that you're winning against Putin or that you have won, that you have got a better deal out of Putin. Now, he's perhaps slightly undermined this strategy by talking about it openly on social media in advance. But who knows? It may work. And I mean, he is the first of a two-pronged European assault, as it were, on America, because we have Zakir Starmer,

coming on Thursday. He's going to have a similar message, I think, but he's also going to speak in more detail about what Europe plus Britain, because we, you know, despite Brexit, despite Britain no longer being in the EU, we are working with the Europeans on this.

Starmer is going to talk about, we think, a so-called reassurance force that Britain and the EU want to place in Ukraine. It's a relatively limited force. It's only something like 30,000 men, which won't be on the front line or anywhere near the front line. They'll just be sort of back

further back in Ukraine, guarding kind of strategic spots and so on. This is intended to tell the Americans, look, you know, we are finally prepared actually to do something. We're prepared to put our own boots on the ground. Will this convince Trump? Again, not clear because it's a relatively small force, you know, 30,000. Zelensky spoke about the need for 200,000. But again, it's all part of, you know, appearing to seize the initiative.

Sir Keir Starmer is, Peter, as you say, the second prong of these two meetings. His advisor has said to The Times that we don't want to poke the bear, as he put it. What is Donald Trump's personal view of Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer? And could that colour how he responds to them this week?

It's always intriguing to try and read something into personal relationships between individual leaders, particularly when one of those leaders is Donald Trump, who's an enormously volatile character. I mean, one thing that is perhaps a little bit curious is the fact that this is Europe and Britain trying to put on a united front.

But they're not going together. They're going separately. There's an intriguing story around today in Le Monde newspaper, quoting, of course, unnamed sources at the Elysée, saying that Macron wanted to go there on his own because he wants to be on his own in the photograph with Trump. He doesn't want to be sharing the limelight with Starmer. He wants all the credit. The Elysée, of course, as always happens with these things, has completely denied that.

On a personal level, Emmanuel Macron is one of the few leaders who was actually around and in power during Trump's first term. He likes to flatter himself. I think that he is the man who can do business with Trump. There's this sort of extraordinary footage of one of their first meeting, I think, when they did a very, very long speech.

almost wrestling style handshake with both men trying to prove that they were the stronger of the other. You know, Sir Keir Starmer, very, very different character. His relations with Trump are much more recent because he was not around or certainly not in a position of power during the first term. You know, from what we understand, the two men get on fairly well, despite being politically very, very different.

different from complete opposite sides of the political spectrum. But how much all of this counts when you set it against American national interests and the extent to which a deal will reflect those interests or other Trump's own interests, you know, remains to be seen. And it's all about realpolitik. And it's all about what Trump can get for America and what he can get for himself.

Peter Friedrich Merz, the man who'll likely be Germany's next leader, made a strong intervention on all of this. He said America is indifferent to the fate of Europe and that achieving independence from the US will be his priority. How much of a departure from the norm are these comments?

I was quite surprised to hear those. Yesterday, we had, obviously, the German election. The results came in pretty early. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democrats, is the undisputed winner. He's now got to put together a coalition, which will take him a few weeks. So that's the background. And what

What always happens on German elections evenings is they have something delightfully named the elephant round, which is when the leaders of all the political parties sit down immediately after the first exit polls come in. And they talk about the results, they talk about what they're going to do in power or in opposition, depending how the election has gone for them. And quite unexpectedly, in the middle of this, and I was watching it, and quite surprisingly,

quite surprised. Friedrich Metz started talking about the challenges ahead and made very clear that he saw that the main challenge for Germany was the changing international environment. And he is well known as being a very, very strong Atlanticist. So he's very, very pro-American. But

You know, he said, essentially, something very, very dramatic has changed. We need to seek active independence from America. It was a curious thing to say, I think, and also sat a little bit awkwardly with the European diplomacy that's been going on. It's an interesting insight, I think, into how Merz thinks and how German policy could well change once he's got his feet under the table in the chancellery.

Peter, you watched the Soviet Union end firsthand as a correspondent in Moscow. Would you have predicted 35 years ago that we'd see a soon-to-be German chancellor casting doubt on NATO surviving in its current form?

No, I wouldn't. But I think it would be too much, though, to read too much into Friedrich Merz's words, because bear in mind, Germany is not going to go alone. Germany has to agree things in concert with its European partners. There are a number of partners, particularly the Poles, who would say, you know, who are even more Atlanticist, as it were, than the Germans are. But I think it does, you know, reflect a broader realization in Europe that the

We do need, or they do need, to go it alone. I say we, I'm including Britain in Europe, certainly as it seems to be on defence issues of concern. And that this is, you know, in a sense, he's echoing the kinds of things that Emmanuel Macron said.

who being French has always taken a slightly more detached view towards America, has been saying for some time. And I think what the real thing to watch out for now in the coming weeks and months, I mean, once Merz is in the chancellery, is just the way that the French and the Germans will perhaps work together on European strategic autonomy. And the extent to which that will happen, the extent to which other European countries will go along with that,

And I suppose crucially for Britain, what role we will play in it.

Peter, thank you. That is Peter Conradi, the Europe editor of the Sunday Times. Also in Kiev today, a Ukrainian official says they're close to a deal with the US over the country's mineral wealth, a deal the US president has repeatedly pushed for in recent days. For more on this story, listen back to last Friday's episode named Ukraine's Earth Minerals and Why Trump Wants Them. But for now, that's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of the Times. See you tomorrow.

Bye.