Putin faces the zugzwang chess move
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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. Vladimir Putin says he backs the proposal for a ceasefire, but warns he has many questions about the deal put forward by the US and Ukraine. His caution at this stage could well be because, as has been observed by many, he's facing a zugzwang.

Song's Fang is a situation in chess where one player is forced to make a move that leaves them in a worse position. Option one for Putin right now is this, accept the ceasefire deal, having not definitively achieved his initial aims for the war. Option two, reject the ceasefire deal, be seen as the obstacle to peace and incur the wrath of Trump. So what will he choose? Or is there another play, a way that Song's

that somehow he could still wriggle out of the Zugzwang. Joining us today is Dr Stephen Hall, an assistant professor in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath. Stephen, Putin says he can only agree to a deal that would address what he calls the root causes of the conflict. What are those causes? Or in other words, what were his aims when he launched Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Well, his three main aims were neutrality, demilitarization and denazification. There were other pieces of information that the Kremlin threw out there, such as combat mosquitoes and various other biolaboratories that may or may not have existed. But those were the three key aims that he wanted to neutralize Ukraine. He wanted to demilitarize Ukraine and he wanted to denazify Ukraine, whatever any of those actually meant.

If he hasn't definitively achieved those aims, could he still wriggle out of this situation by claiming that he has actually achieved them?

Well, this is also something that the Kremlin does a lot of. It will put out aims that are very vague that it can define if necessary. He could plausibly argue that Ukraine isn't going to be joining NATO anytime soon. America has been quite clear about that, and obviously so is Hungary and Slovakia. He could argue that it won't join the EU for the same reason.

minus America, of course. So he could argue that it's neutral. He could argue that it's demilitarized because Russia has demilitarized

taken out some of the Ukrainian military. If you believe the statistics from the Russian Ministry of Defence, they've defeated the Ukrainian army twice now, but nevertheless. And there's also denazification. He could argue that we've wiped out the Azov battalion, which is always the better noir of the Kremlin. So he could plausibly argue it's denazification as well. However...

The Kremlin, I don't think, is prepared to go that far at the moment. It believes it's winning this war and therefore is going to maintain the pressure on Ukraine, whether that's militarily or making sure, if there is a ceasefire and or a peace deal later on, that it retains political and economic influence in Ukraine.

So as well as, as you say, pushing for influence in Ukraine, what else do you think could be on Vladimir Putin's list of demands if he is then going to sign the ceasefire deal? It's quite clear what he would want, which is if it's a 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine doesn't receive any weapons during that ceasefire. He could also plausibly argue that it's about time America and Russia rethought their economic relationship.

He has claimed before that America could have access to resources in Russian-occupied Ukraine and or Russia itself. He could also demand that unfriendly countries don't send peacekeepers, so that ends any attempt by Europe to send peacekeepers, if there is still an attempt by Europe to send peacekeepers. And he could also argue that facts are on the ground.

So Ukraine has to accept that the Ukrainian territory is no longer Ukrainian territory. And constitutionally, for the Russian constitution, bits of Ukraine that Ukraine actually holds are constitutionally Russian, and therefore Ukraine should retreat from these. There are other...

Pieces of information that have come out recently, a FSB-linked think tank or FSB-published document, no one is quite certain, has also pointed out a demilitarized zone in the east of Ukraine around Kharkiv and Sumy, and also the demilitarized zone as well in the south around Odessa towards Moldova and the Russian-supported Great White Republic of Transnistria.

So we'll have to see what happens. But certainly Putin is going to make some demands. It's up to whether the Americans will accept them or not. Stephen, do you think those demands could include a push for new elections in Ukraine or even international recognition for those Russian occupied territories or even Crimea? Yeah.

There's many possibilities as to what the Kremlin may demand. Certainly, it will probably demand elections. Now, it's not overly certain whether it wants elections per se. I think even the Kremlin is aware that there isn't a Ukrainian politician who is pro-Russian enough that Ukrainian voters would vote for him.

or her, of course. But there may be some way of a unity government, perhaps, that could be agreed between America and Russia that would include...

Viktor Medvedchuk, who is commonly known as Putin's man in Kiev, his daughter has Putin as a godfather, so they're quite close. There's other people as well. So that's something it may try and do. I think it knows that if there was to be a free and fair election, Valeriy Zaluzhny would probably win it. Volodymyr Zelensky, if he stands, may win.

probably won't win it but he may just come into the second round it's unlikely to be a pro-russian candidate and it's unlikely to be a pro-russian government so they may ask for a unity a government of national unity to deal with this crisis

And we'll go from there in terms of what they actually demand. In terms of the international recognition of Crimea, I'm not so certain about that. They've had since 2014 to sort that out. They could have mentioned it in Minsk as one of the requirements of the Minsk agreements. They didn't do so. And they didn't really do the same for the Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republics. It may be something that Putin brings out of his hat, obviously.

I don't like to predict what the Kremlin decides to do because it often brings in new things that no one has actually thought about. But they will certainly be studying this and deciding what they can make demands on and what they think the Americans will accept. So should we get through all of these hurdles and Vladimir Putin perhaps accepts the ceasefire, is there a risk that he just subverts it or tries to work it somehow to his advantage?

I think it's more than a risk. It's almost a certainty that Vladimir Putin will find a way to subvert it. Depending on what the ceasefire is, we still don't know what that is. It is just the current 30-day ceasefire. Then he will find a way for a false flag operation, perhaps, or little green men, as in Crimea, attack.

Let's say in the Sumy. And then he can claim that these aren't Russian soldiers. They're actually someone else. Or he may even be, if we believe the rumors that have come out that Russia has attacked its own cities, Sutra being the primary one in Kursk, but also in Belgorod and Voronezh as well.

that this may be something and then he can pin it on the Ukrainians and that will fit into certainly Trump and particularly J.D. Vance's perception that the Ukraine is to blame for this war. So there will be many ways. The Kremlin will be, and I use the Kremlin loosely in this term, but the Kremlin will be thinking up many new and innovative ways to try and break up this deal. The Kremlin does not stick to ceasefires and we have seen that repeatedly.

Donald Trump has made this stark threat to devastate Russia's economy if Moscow doesn't agree to the deal. How concerned about upsetting Donald Trump do you think Vladimir Putin will be? Well, I think the Russian presidential administration and the wider Kremlin in some ways find Donald Trump very hard to understand. Donald Trump flip-flops across what he thinks almost by the hour in some cases.

every day it's a brand new Donald Trump sometimes. So they don't know how to read him, whereas in the past other politicians, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, they had a better understanding of. And I think to an extent Putin was telling the truth when he said he preferred to see Kamala Harris or Joe Biden win the presidency because they knew what was coming, whereas with Trump no one is overly certain.

this is the man who gave Ukraine weapons whilst apparently being pro-Putin. So it's very confusing for them. So I think they certainly do worry about the Fed. Now, unfortunately, Donald Trump doesn't like, seems to like Slovens without explanation as to what would require the sanctions in terms of the ceasefire. So if

And Vladimir Putin was to say, well, I want a neutral Ukraine, a true Russian political regime, and I want Russia's territory to expand along the southern part of the Dnipro and a demilitarized zone in Kharkiv, which would take out the capital city. And then we'll have CETA. Now, does that mean for Donald Trump that, yes, he's achieved a ceasefire and therefore sanctions won't happen?

Or does Trump then say, well, actually, that's ridiculous. You can't have that. The ceasefire was agreed with Ukraine. And these are the six points for the ceasefire. And you're not going to accept it. Therefore, we're going to bring your economy to a standstill. I would like to think it's the latter, but I suspect it may be the former. And we'll just have to wait and see as to how this will play out.

Stephen, thank you. That is Dr Stephen Hall, Assistant Professor in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics at the University of Bath. So, should Russia eventually end up rejecting this ceasefire proposal, how would the US respond? That's what we looked at yesterday in an episode called What Happens If Putin Doesn't Play Ball? For now, though, that's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times.

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