The big global security questions for 2025
World in 10
Deep Dive
Why is it unlikely that Donald Trump will be able to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?
Russia is not keen on negotiations and prefers to negotiate from a position of strength, while Ukraine would have to cede territories temporarily. Trump's stance on NATO and defense spending also complicates the security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine's manpower shortages and the war of attrition further complicate the situation.
Why will it be difficult for Iran to rebuild its regional influence in the Middle East over the next 12 months?
Iran has lost powerful proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, and the future of Syria is uncertain. The potential rise of the Islamic State in a Sunni-dominated Syria and Israel's strengthened position make it challenging for Iran to regroup. Additionally, Iran might face more sanctions and confrontations under a Trump administration.
Why is the success of a potential ceasefire in Gaza uncertain?
The success of a ceasefire depends on a reconstruction plan and a political solution for Gaza. There is a risk of a power vacuum and a humanitarian crisis, and historical examples show that ceasefires between a state and a non-state actor often break down, allowing one side to regroup and strike again.
Why is it unlikely that China will launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
China's potential move on Taiwan depends on global dynamics and the presence of a hawkish Trump administration. Taiwan's importance as a producer of semiconductors and the U.S. military response, including the possibility of nuclear escalation, make such a move highly risky. China's lack of battlefield experience and the potential for dangerous escalatory spirals also deter an invasion.
- Trump's potential role in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations
- Russia's unwillingness to negotiate from a position of weakness
- Ukraine's potential need to cede territories
- Concerns about US security commitments under Trump
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