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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. Two days ago, we analysed in broad terms the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire after Donald Trump said Israel had agreed to the necessary conditions. Today, we're going to focus more closely on Hamas.
and the calculations going on within Hamas, and explain why they may be more inclined to accept a ceasefire deal now than they have been previously. Our guest is The Times' Israel correspondent, Gabrielle Weininger, who's in Tel Aviv. Gabby, we'll focus on Hamas in a moment, but before that, can you just explain what we know about this ceasefire proposal, which we didn't know two days ago when Trump posted?
It's similar to previous ceasefire proposals that have been put forward ever since the breakdown of the last ceasefire in March. I think the Israeli prime minister has been quite insistent that hostages are released in stages, which kind of buys him time to continue his other war aim, which is to eliminate Hamas in the Gaza Strip. What's markedly different, I think, about what we've seen in this current summary is that Hamas will be banned from holding these
rather chilling hostage release ceremonies, kind of parading the freed hostages on a stage in southern Gaza, surrounded by militants. It's a very traumatic event for the hostages who have been held underground for over 600 days. And it is meant to bolster, of course, Hamas's image in Gaza and also abroad. And I think Israel was quite stern in putting a stop to that before they handed over to the Red Cross. So that's one of the conditions.
The other things we've seen are quite similar to previous deals. For example, 28 hostages will be freed over five stages throughout a 60-day truce. That will also involve the release of many, many Palestinian prisoners. The numbers aren't there yet, but we know that there'll be some quite heavy hitters. Again, a 60-day truce, that's a temporary ceasefire. Hamas are pushing for discussions to end the war permanently during that 60-day time, and
That's, of course, where the ceasefire fell apart the last time. Israel didn't want to proceed to what was then known as Phase 2 in the Witkoff proposal to start discussions to permanently end the war. Israel is quite reluctant to do that until they see the complete destruction of Hamas.
At the moment, we don't know whether Israel is prepared to change its stance on that at all. But either way, why might Hamas be prepared or maybe even keen to sign a ceasefire agreement now when they haven't been previously? What's changed, in other words?
Hamas have been degraded significantly. We can see even just among the leadership in the Gaza Strip what's happened over the past 21 months. The assassination of Yahya Sinwa, the takeover of his brother, younger brother Mohammed and his assassination. And now we have a leader who is...
really all about a symbolic leader who does have final veto power over any ceasefire deal, but he doesn't have the experience and the heavy hitting clout and the symbolic presence in Gaza that the Sinhwas had, especially Yahya Sinwa, but even Mohammed had some kind of legacy.
So a lot of the decisions are actually being taken among the external leadership, the exiled Ghazan leadership who are based in Doha and kind of travel between Doha and Turkey. And they're more inclined, I think, to agree on a ceasefire. They don't want to be responsible for war.
Let's put it this way, for Gaza going or falling under complete and total Israeli occupation, just like it was prior to the 2005 disengagement, which saw Israeli civilians and Jewish residents leaving Gaza permanently. And then, of course, the takeover of Hamas. They don't want to be the ones that preside over the fall of Gaza.
And some would perhaps argue that that's a factor affecting Hamas's decision-making that is a bit underplayed, given Hamas isn't just a group with a military aim to overthrow Israel, but the political group presiding over the Gaza Strip and the Palestinians within it. So maybe that element, as you say, means they're having to pick up their pen in readiness to sign a ceasefire agreement.
I think they don't have much choice. We can see what's going on, for example, in southern Gaza. Palestinians are being killed every single day as they try to get aid. And Hamas aren't even in those areas anymore, largely. I think they have a responsibility to their population to
they don't want to be seen as surrendering, but certainly to take care as much as possible of the population. They've even signalled a willingness to disarm and for some symbolic exile to go on from the leaders to leave Gaza. I think the main reason is, yes, to stop the Israeli military advance. And the situation is just...
the suffering that is going on, I mean, we don't get to see it firsthand as journalists. We're not allowed inside and it's very difficult. We have to rely on eyewitness reports, our journalists on the ground who are doing a courageous job. But, you know, what's happening, we know is untenable. We know the suffering is immense. I think it's nearing an end and they've shown a willingness to compromise in some ways. They are still holding firm on the
discussions towards a permanent ceasefire. They don't want the same thing to happen again, where they release the hostages, which they see as their trump cards, right? That's all they've got left, the fact that they're holding 50 or 49 hostages, 20 of whom are believed to be alive. They don't want to release them in stages only to go back to a state of war again. They want reassurance. They want some kind of guarantee from America that the 60-day ceasefire will also include discussions to bring a permanent end to the war in Gaza.
Gabby, we're talking ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu visiting the US next week. At the moment of these ceasefire negotiations, how well do you think he's playing the political chess game with Trump, with Hamas, with his own coalition government and the Israeli public, of course? He is known for, or critics say rather, that he has made...
a lot of effort to prolong the war, to torpedo possible hostage release deals and ceasefire deals in order to stay in power. That's been a loaded accusation that's been held against him by much of the Israeli public for some time. He's been trying to keep his coalition together. Again, we have his hard right members of his coalition, for example, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, threatening to leave the coalition and
if he goes ahead with the ceasefire deal. In fact, Ben-Gur did leave the last time and only rejoined when there was a resumption of fighting. That being said, the board game, the geopolitical wider picture has changed significantly since January.
After the Iran-Israel 12-day war, which Trump joined Israel in attacking and largely destroying a lot of Iran's nuclear program. Benjamin Netanyahu feels that he's in a stronger position now with the Israeli public having kind of saved Israel from this existential threat, which was the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile program.
And he has eyes on a wider prize, which is his re-election when elections are held in, you know, around October, let's say, and a wider regional peace that could include Syria, Saudi Arabia, and there are even murmurs of peace with Indonesia and Pakistan.
And that is certainly something that Trump has openly said that he wants to facilitate. He wants his Nobel Prize. He wants it this year. And that's Trump's timeline. And Benjamin Netanyahu might well fall in lockstep with that.
And Gabby, aside from the ceasefire, we've seen allegations that American contractors guarding aid centers in Gaza have been targeting Palestinians with live ammunition and stun grenades as they try to get food. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has described those claims as categorically false. But how badly does this reflect on the U.S., Israel or both at such a crucial moment?
The Gaza Humanitarian Fund is largely American backed and America's government has even pledged to financially fund it. So it does reflect badly on America. But it's been Israel's decision. Israel oversees this new aid mechanism and Israel are the ones who are saying no.
We have to replace the longstanding organizations which have delivered aid to Gaza for decades, including the UN organization in charge of that, WHO, and other international aid organizations who had over 400 distribution sites for aid all across the territory. People were not killed when they went to visit these sites or when they were handing out aid. And now the
current mechanism has around three or four sites. They're not always open at the same times. It's not clear when they're open. They are terribly managed. And these kind of American security subcontractors who are there to facilitate the safe distribution of aid are not doing that. It's not safe. It's not safe in any way. And it's been shocking to see the videos come out of what's been happening there. We saw testimonies online.
from whistleblowers in the organization saying that people opened fire, the security contractors opened fire on vulnerable women and elderly who were too slow in leaving the site as they try and do these kind of crowd control measures using live fire. It's not sustainable. It's highly, highly dangerous. And it causes death almost every day of dozens of people.
OK, Gabi, thank you. That's our Israel correspondent, Gabriel Weinegger, in Tel Aviv. Gabi has also exclusively obtained documents relating to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, detailing how Israel's spies in Iran...
gathered over many years the information necessary to carry out those attacks. We plan to speak to Gabby about her remarkable story next week, so make sure you click follow so you get that episode when it arrives, and indeed every other episode. Thank you for now for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. If you work in healthcare, you rely on your training, focus, and team to make decisions. You rely on your mind.
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