The sudden rush for an Israel-Gaza hostage deal
10:53 Share

This is an ad by BetterHelp. What's your perfect night? Is it curling up on the couch for a cozy, peaceful night in? Therapy can feel a bit like that. Your comfort place where you replenish your energy. With BetterHelp, get matched with a therapist based on your needs entirely online. It's convenient and suited to your schedule. Find comfort this season with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com today to get 10% off your first month.

That's BetterHelpHELP.com. Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. One of the perks about having four kids that you know about is actually getting a direct line to the big man up north. And this year, he wants you to know the best gift that you can give someone is the gift of Mint Mobile's unlimited wireless for $15 a month. Now, you don't even need to wrap it.

bit. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment required equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited. See mintmobile.com for details.

Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey and Alex Dibble. A Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal could be imminent with a flurry of activity in Doha and Cairo after months of deadlock. There have been moments of hope before, multiple rounds of talks, always getting stuck though on Israel wanting to keep forces in Gaza and Hamas opposed to that. But

But now we hear the gaps between the two sides' positions have narrowed significantly. There are reports that Israeli negotiators and the CIA director are in Doha. Palestinian officials say an agreement could be days away. Our guest today is Dr. Lynette Nusbacher. She's a strategist and former military intelligence officer who worked on national security for the UK government. She's also a war historian.

Lynette, we've seen this flurry of activity in recent days, Arab mediators, the US intensifying those efforts to reach a deal that could release Israeli hostages and stop the fighting in Gaza. What is your sense of what's been going on behind the scenes?

The American government, of course, is having a transition upcoming. And there's a tremendous desire on the part of the Biden administration not to lose traction in those negotiations as part of their handover to the incoming Trump administration. So one of the things we've been seeing is Trump doing a lot of shouting because that's what he does. And he is trying to use that shouting, those threats,

to emphasize that his administration is going to be picking up in a seamless change. There isn't going to be a loss of traction, they hope, in the negotiations around Gaza and Hamas and the hostages. And so there's a real desire on the part of the Americans as one of the facilitating parties to

to keep momentum up, to keep the pressure on Hamas and on the Israelis, on Netanyahu, to come to a settlement. It does feel like we have been here before, though, I suppose, the Biden administration talking about an imminent deal and all of the parties jetting around the Middle East. Is it different this time?

I don't think it's that different this time. The Israeli defense minister is talking this up. We've got Bill Burns, the director of the CIA in Doha. We've got Brett McGurk, who is the White House representative in the Middle East. We've got the prime minister of Qatar there. We've got

senior, although not top, Israeli intelligence service and defense representatives. There are a lot of people there in Qatar. They've got high hopes. The Israeli defense minister is talking it up, but Israeli sources make it clear.

that the Israelis are not in that room ready to shift their negotiating position. The Israelis are very clear that they will shift a little bit on how long a ceasefire they will go for, whether it's 42 days, which they agreed to a little while ago. They've said that they'll go as far as 60 days.

They are willing to take the women hostages, seriously ill hostages, and men over 50 and leave younger male hostages. And they've indicated that they're willing to shift a little bit on the number of hostages that they will expect to see as a result. Because, of course, we don't know how many are alive and how many are dead. And the Israelis don't really know, although they have an idea.

So Israelis are willing to shift on those, but the Israelis are very clear that they are going to keep corridors. The two corridors that split the Gaza Strip in two and the one that splits the Gaza Strip from Egypt, they're not willing to move on that. And I don't think Netanyahu has got the political credibility to move on that.

Lynette, something you've argued in the past is that the conflict with Hamas is part of a wider Israel-Iran war. Now, though, with the ceasefire in Lebanon holding, Israel's military taking that buffer zone with Syria, and now momentum for a ceasefire, is this a moment of hope that maybe respite is coming? Hope is the last thing to die.

You're right. I assess this as a regional war. This is the Israel-Iran war. It is arguably a theater in that broader conflict between Russia and the West. And now that Iran has been given a bit of a swatting and they've had to step back from Syria,

there is every chance that there will be the respite that you are looking for. In that, if Hezbollah and Israel can achieve at least a temporary modus vivendi, if Syria can be stabilized enough for the Israelis to sit back and be ready to trade back Syrian territory,

in return for a secure Golan Heights and a secure north of Israel, then we can see a change on Israel's northern border. And that's really important to Israel. The Israelis need to return their population in the north to a secure north region.

Is there going to be a respite for Hamas in Gaza, for the people in Gaza who mostly want to be left alone at this point? That's going to take some time. The Israelis are very clearly not going to stop kicking people in Gaza until they get their hostages back.

And as long as Hamas keeps insisting on conditions that they haven't really got the power to demand, it's just going to keep grinding on.

We've been hearing here at The Times today from the families of those hostages. They're worried that their hopes inevitably could be dashed again. Of course, a deal would involve the release of, we think, some of the remaining people who were taken. What is your sense of what will happen next? I think that if Hamas wanted to end this war, they would end it by returning hostages and

Hamas is in this war in order to confront Israel because that is what Hamas does. That is their purpose for existing. Hamas wants to keep on violently confronting Israel as long as possible. And the hostages are a way to grab Israel by the nose and keep Israel involved against their best interests in fighting this war.

Hamas is going to hold on to the hostages as long as they can because confronting Israel is what they do, and those hostages provide an opportunity for exactly the kind of confrontation that Hamas exists for.

The Israelis right now are led by Bibi Netanyahu, a man who has an interest in keeping the war going so that he doesn't have to resign. Ideally for Netanyahu, he will keep this war going until something big happens in the region, like the Iranian regime going to pieces, so that he can claim

that he has succeeded in bringing Israel the security that he has clearly failed to deliver. Netanyahu needs to stay in power as prime minister to use his parliamentary immunity to protect himself from prosecution. If the Israeli people

become convinced that Netanyahu has failed to deliver the security that he has been promising since this sentence prime minister began in 2009. He'll be out of office and quite possibly he'll be in jail. So Netanyahu needs to keep the war going.

It's been very clear that the Israeli defense and intelligence establishment does not think the war needs to keep going. We saw a very fast denial from Mr. Netanyahu's office this morning. It reports that he may be going to Cairo to take part in these talks. How much does his coalition involving some far right parties, how does that color these talks that are going on?

There are far-right nutcases in Netanyahu's cabinet. Netanyahu, in order to form his current government, had to reach out and touch some fairly untouchable political parties. And as a result, Netanyahu relies on coalition partners who talk about crazy stuff like recolonizing the Gaza Strip.

If you talk about Netanyahu going to Cairo, you're talking about someone going to Cairo with masses of political baggage. I think it's right that it's unlikely that Netanyahu is going to go there. There are people in Netanyahu's cabinet who are very happy for this war to turn into a very different picture of the region.

And if his own cabinet colleagues are briefing against him and briefing bizarre stuff, then it is not at all surprising that Netanyahu's office has got to start denying things.

Dr Nusbacher, thank you. That's Lynette Nusbacher, a war historian, former UK National Security Advisor and strategist. And that is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

Struggling with dry eye? You're not alone. Dry eye is increasingly common and can range from occasional symptoms to a chronic condition known as dry eye disease. If you're one of the 38 million Americans experiencing dry eye symptoms you can't shake, it may be the result of too much tear evaporation and or underlying inflammation of the eye, two common causes of dry eye, among other factors. Before symptoms get worse, talk to an eye doctor about possible treatment options and visit

knowyourdryeye.com to learn more. We all have dreams, dream home renovations, dream vacations, or sending our kids to their dream colleges. But finding straightforward ways to turn those dreams into realistic goals, that's where things get tricky. Merrill understands that. That's why with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. And having the bull at your back helps your whole financial life move with you.

So when your plans change, Merrill is with you every step of the way. Go to ml.com slash bullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC.