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cover of episode Toppling Iran’s regime - a gamble for Trump

Toppling Iran’s regime - a gamble for Trump

2025/6/20
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World in 10

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Richard Spencer: 人们对“政权更迭”的理解过于简单化,忽略了各国政府体制的差异。我认为,直接推翻伊朗现政权并非易事,因为伊朗并非一人统治的国家,其政治体系复杂,涉及议会、总统、宗教领袖以及革命卫队等多个权力中心。因此,我认为,更可行的策略是削弱伊朗政权的稳定,改变其行为,并降低最高领袖哈梅内伊的个人权威。我个人认为,特朗普政府对伊朗的策略并非直接军事威胁,而是在制造一种不确定性和混乱感,以此促使伊朗内部发生改变。我感觉,这种策略旨在让伊朗人民认识到,现有的状态无法持续,从而引发他们对变革的渴望。 Richard Spencer: 我认为,关于特朗普阻止以色列暗杀哈梅内伊的说法需要谨慎对待。我认为,这种说法可能符合特朗普和内塔尼亚胡双方的利益。特朗普可以借此标榜自己致力于结束中东战争,而内塔尼亚胡则可以暗示,如果不是特朗普的约束,他本可以采取更强硬的手段。我认为,直接除掉哈梅内伊可能会导致无法预测的后果,因此与现有的政权打交道可能更为稳妥。我认为,对伊朗实施轰炸并不能带来政权更迭,因为人们不会在被轰炸的情况下走上街头。所以,我认为,目标应该是破坏伊朗政权的稳定,削弱其地位,以期在未来促成某种形式的改变。

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Israel’s endgame in targeting Iran seems to be regime change in Tehran but what would the fall of the 45-year-old Islamic Republic really mean? The Times’ longtime Middle East correspondent Richard Spencer explores Iran’s intricate political system and the challenges of external intervention.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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