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cover of episode Trump risks "better, stronger Russia" with Ukraine deal

Trump risks "better, stronger Russia" with Ukraine deal

2025/1/22
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World in 10
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Larissa Brown
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Larissa Brown: 我认为达成任何协议都会给俄罗斯时间重建和恢复其军队。这将导致军备竞赛，并在未来几年内导致另一场战争。俄罗斯可能会将东欧作为下一个目标，试图夺取乌克兰全境，然后进犯北约领土。普京不能被信任，因为他只会追求符合自身国家利益的协议。阻止俄罗斯重建军事力量很困难，因为很难监控其他国家对俄罗斯的援助。如果允许俄罗斯重建，它将在下一次冲突中变得更强大。2022年俄罗斯军队的表现不佳，但通过与乌克兰及其西方武器的对抗，他们已经适应并将在未来变得更强大。特朗普可能没有意识到达成协议的风险，他追求的是短期内结束战争以提升个人声望。他希望因其在乌克兰问题上的工作而获得诺贝尔和平奖。如果普京不同意协议，向乌克兰提供更多资金和武器，可能会对乌克兰有利，这也有利于欧洲，因为乌克兰需要在战场上表现良好才能进行谈判。英国等国家希望乌克兰在战场上取得胜利，从而迫使普京做出有利于他们的让步。 Alex Dibble: (无明确观点，主要负责引导访谈) Toby Gillis: (无明确观点，主要负责引导访谈) Donald Trump: (通过Larissa Brown转述) 威胁俄罗斯，如果他们不达成协议，将会面临严重麻烦。暗示如果普京不谈判，将全力武装乌克兰。 Lieutenant General Mike Elvis: (通过Larissa Brown转述) 警告称，如果达成协议，将给予俄罗斯时间重建和恢复其军队，为几年后的另一次袭击做准备。

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Donald Trump has told Vladimir Putin Russia will be "in big trouble" if he does not make a deal to end the Ukraine war. But has he thought of the potential ramifications of his plan? A senior British military man has warned it will give Putin time to rebuild for another assault in the medium term future. The Times' Defence Editor, Larisa Brown, looks at the advantages and potential problems of bringing Putin to the negotiating table and successfully agreeing a deal with him.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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